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Ireland's Eye - Tuesday

Tuesday 31 March

IRELAND'S EYE 

Today we look at the value bets for the Aintree centerpiece on Saturday and nominate the best of the Irish challenge and put forward a couple of bigger priced contenders on the Daq.

We doubled up on our Sunday gains yesterday with a brace of winners from as many selections with our second choice Finbin (13/2-11/2) benefiting from a fine Michael O’Connell drive to land the opener in Newcastle and in addition our main choice Dancing Dik (5/4) scored in the novice hurdle.

RAMBLING MINSTER
The lightly raced 10yo possesses many of the attributes that a potential winner of the National should possess. Trained by the excellent Keith Reveley he boasts winning form on all grounds but is arguably best on the forecast good ground and has a fine strike rate of 1 in 3 over fences to date. In addition he has won over 3m 4f and is set to carry 10-9. Arguably the negatives are recent winning form (strike rate of those with last time out are not particularly good) and the fact that his only run on the course (not over Aintree fences) was not particularly inspiring. At odds of 11.5 on the Daq he must rate a small wager.

BUTLER’S CABIN
Tony McCoy is in pursuit of another famous landmark in his phenomenal career and landing the biggest prize of all would be the ‘cherry on top’ to follow up his landmark 3000th winner already this year. His mount this year is the 2007 Irish Grand National winner Butler’s Cabin as he was last year. He is likely to start at a similar price this time around but though he exited at Beechers second time round last year he looks to have better prospects this time around as Johnjo O’Neills stable look to be in better form and he wont have any problems with ground and trip off a mark 12lbs lower than last year. Price 11.0 on the Daq.

PARSONS LEGACY
The former Irish pointer Parsons Legacy is hardly likely to jump off the page as an obvious contender for this 4m 4f test but the Philip Hobbs trained 11yo has proved a decent recruit for the yard in the last seven years. Since landing a 4yo contest in the Autumn of 2002 for Dermot Costello he has scored six times, including four over fences for the Minehead yard but his main attributes are a penchant for better ground and in addition he invariably runs well when fresh. Admittedly he has to put a below par run behind him but he comes here after a break and he has won on five of runs after a break during his career. In addition he showed that he stays the trip when taking third in the 2007 Scottish National in 2007 and though age is not necessarily on his side eleven year olds have a fair record here. At odds of around 36.0 on the Daq he could prove the value bet on Saturday.

BIG FELLA THANKS
Though the Paul Nicholls trained ex pointer is just out of novice company the 7yo has made a good impression since going over the bigger obstacles and put up a fine staying performance to land a competitive Doncaster hc chase on penultimate start before failing to justify favouritism when taking third in the Racing Post Chase in Kempton. Though he has to shoulder 11-1 and has been abandoned by Ruby Walsh he could rate a possible though novices do not have a good record in the race and an easier surface would be more to his liking. Price on Betdaq 26.0.

Others to consider are former pointer Knowhere from the Twiston Davies yard who know what it takes to win the race and is the choice of stable jockey Paddy Brennan. Though he has to shoulder 11-7 here he does boast a win over Exotic Dancer over 2m 4f on the track last October and though he jumped moderately when soundly beaten in the Gold Cup he could be suited by better ground and his aggressive style of jumping could see him run a big race here at odds of 84.0 on the Daq.

My Will (9.4) holds obvious claims on his fine fifth in the Gold Cup and with Ruby Walsh on board will be many peoples choice but the price is hardly that appealing now.

The Irish challenge looks somewhat shaky this year though course winner Black Apalachi (19.0) will have his supporters though he looks high enough in the weights and is arguably best with some ‘juice’ in the ground. Last years winner Comply Or Die (21.0) does not hold much appeal to this column while the Mouse Morris runner and former Irish National winner Hear The Echo (19.5) faces a daunting task but will be suited by the ground. Former point winner Southern Vic (32.0) would have been high on my list but has been deserted by Ruby Walsh and the Ted Walsh trained 10yo would be suited by more rain – not looking that likely according to the Met office.

ADVICE
3pt win HI DANCER 2-30 Wetherby
2pt win AJMORAG 4-15 Wetherby
1pt win 1pt place RAMBLING MINSTER Grand National
1pt win BIG FELLA THANKS Grand National
2pt win 1pt place PARSONS LEGACY Grand National
1pt win BUTLER’S CABIN Grand National
1pt place KNOWHERE Grand National
1pt place SOUTHERN VIC Grand National

DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 31 March GRAND NATIONAL SPECIAL: Starting today, Daqman takes a two-way look at Saturday’s National. TODAY he examines the lessons of the race’s history, how some of the stats pan out. It’s Daqman dispelling The Seven Deadly Myths. TOMORROW: Are you on the right horse at the right price? Daqman looks at each runner from a value-betting point of view, examining their ability and style of running. L’Ami wins the Grand National if you take the average weight carried over the last 10 years but he’s nobody’s friend on breeding: no French horse has won since 1909. Thumbs down. But there was a similar knock-out stat against Comply Or Die, last year’s winner: 146 starters had tried to win in headgear since 1975 and all had failed. Until the blinkered Comply or Die. So, if the stats anorak gets roasted by the exception that proves the rule, is it any use at all looking at the history of the race? The short answer is: yes. It’s an answer best supported by the dispelling of some old myths, like the now infamous ‘two and two-and-a-half-mile horses often win the National’: the stats proved this was hopelessly wrong. It happened once or twice; Gay Trip (1970) probably gave birth to the myth. Here’s another one: ‘Bad jumpers can rise to the challenge of the Aintree fences and win the National.’ Not on your nelly. The truth is slightly different: those which can make the odd mistake or take their fences lazily may sharpen up and concentrate more when faced with Aintree; they have to. Regular fallers have no chance. Myth number three: ‘You need a young animal to win the National.’ Largely wrong. If you’re an iron horse like Red Rum or a granite giant like 18-hands-high Party Politics, yes. But five of the last eight winners have been aged in double figures. Since 1975, horses aged 10 and upwards have scored 21 times, nearly twice that of the youngsters (12 wins); in fact, 9-year-olds (9 wins) have the best record, followed by 10-year-olds (8), 11-year-olds (7), 12-year-olds (6) and 8-year-olds (3). Myth number four: ‘The same horses are placed in the National over and over again.’ That used to be true in the good old bad old days of the likes of Red Rum and L’Escargot when the fences were more ferocious. Amberleigh House, Hedgehunter and Slim Pickings are recent examples but, in the last 25 years, a progressively easier course has given many more horses a chance and rings the changes almost every season. No horse has won back to back since ‘Rummy’ himself in 1973-74. It’s more reasonable to ask: ‘Which horses have run and jumped well over the Grand National fences?’ That would have to include races like the Becher Chase. Myth number five: ‘A good horse can win whatever the weight.’ Sorry. Wrong again. There’s been no winner with more than 11st 1lb since 1983 and, again, only ‘Rummy’ has carried top weight to win since the heyday of racing before the war in the age of Golden Miller (1934). Myth number six: ‘It’s no good betting in the Grand National; it’s a lottery and outsiders always win.’ False. Only Silver Birch (bless him) has started bigger than 16-1 in the last six years; 14 of the last 18 winners came from the first eight in the market at SP. Even the story that Lottery (1839) was the first winner is a myth; he was the first Aintree winner but the same race at Magull was won in 1836 by The Duke. In any case, it wasn’t called the Grand National until 1847. And finally, myth number seven: ‘Cheltenham is the championship meeting, so just follow Cheltenham form!” Bad blunder. That one comes a huge cropper: only one Cheltenham Festival winner has gone on to National fame since 1961. That was 30 years later when the boss of the Grand National sponsors, Seagram, sold his horse; he didn’t believe it could win at Cheltenham and Aintree. In 47 years out of 48, he would have been right. It’s name by the way was Seagram. Betdaq in-running tip: the winner may be out of the picture on the first circuit but, in all bar two of the last 20 runnings, they were prominent right from the start of the second circuit. Finally, here’s a fact that can win you a pint in the pub: since 1985, the names of a huge 17 out of 23 winners have begun with a letter from L to W in the alphabet. Amazing? Not really, most horses names are at the bottom end of the alphabet (‘R’ is the most common initial letter). But it is rather odd that, in three of the four years just before that (1980 to 1983) horses beginning with A, B, and C won it. Easy as, isn’t it!
TODAY'S BETS
DAQ MULTIPLES: 6 x 1pt win doubles Chrysander (3.40 Wetherby), The Hague (3.50 Southwell), Manere Bay (4.35 Folkestone) and Sphere (5.05 Folkestone).
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DAQMAN on Monday

Monday 30 March NOW IT’S 15 IN A ROW: The incredible Daqman is already taking the Classic scene apart: he gave a big thumbs down to the 2,000-trial favourite at Leopardstown yesterday and was rewarded with successful lay number 15 in his series. No losers. Or should that be: no winners! The horse was Intense Focus (2nd evens), and Daqman was also on target at Doncaster with Palace Moon (won 5-1), giving him an overall profit for the third day running. Today, the start of Grand National week, Daqman has an each-way bet at Newcastle, ridden by the jockey on his Aintree fancy. It was 11.0 on Betdaq this morning. Two years ago, I was sitting on a fat ante-post voucher for Silver Birch in the Grand National: it had one good thing going for it – apart from the horse winning, of course – and that was not reading a word about it in the run-up to the race. I’m one of those punters who like to stand alone; be the only one to have spotted the winner. This year, I really fancy Rambling Minister, but so does the world and his wife, and every time I pick up a paper, I read about the Reveleys. Today’s story will make watching the race even harder, as the stable warns that the horse races a bit fresh early on and getting over the first three fences will have the heart in the mouth. Thanks very much! Very helpful to know (swallows warfarin stage left). The only thing I’ve got right so far is saying that it’s now an open race: 15 horses are today quoted 20-1 or shorter. And there will be more: the papers are looking to the likes of Cornish Sett – even Silver Birch – to find ‘an outsider’ to root for, and try to grab the last remaining ‘overs’. I still think Butlers Cabin and the remarkable Tony McCoy will end up clear at the front of the market: no other story has yet caught the public imagination and the bookies need a hot favourite pour encourager les autres. It’s a golden rule that I don’t look at other tipsters until I’ve written my piece: so I groaned when I saw Pricewise with both Manassas (won 22-1) and Palace Moon (won 5-1). I much preferred the headlines which claimed that Intense Focus was a good thing for yesterday’s 2,000 trial in Ireland. As I said yesterday, the horse had been exploited last year, was well exposed, and came sheepishly into a Classic trial wearing blinkers! These headlines are now replaced by how good Recharge was in beating him. Don’t believe a word of that either. Don’t back him for any Guineas. The race was run slow by a month (actually 1.90 secs), despite good-to-firm ground; you know what I think of the animal he beat; and we were told in advance that the O’Brien runners weren’t ready. The race is of use only for yardsticks, and I’ll only be backing something for the Guineas which has collateral form many lengths in front of that little lot. How to get through the next three days before Aintree starts? James ‘Rambling Minister’ Reveley would probably answer: by keeping busy. He has a sound each-way chance on the first-time-in-a-handicap Treeko (4.40 Newcastle), fourth to an Ascot winner but given a nice mark to start off with: 11.0 on Betdaq as I write. Just be glad you don’t have to get into a horse-box and drive 300 miles from Pembrokeshire to Geordieland. Peter Bowen has sent two on such a mission: I find it hard to fancy either but I’m tickled pink by the anti-loveys name of the partnership which owns Royal Hilarity (2.40): ‘Don’t Darling Me’ (or was it when the husband came home after a hard night at the pub?). Royal Hilarity is nearly a stone higher than for his Folkestone win and that race really was a month slow. Well, 43.50secs on good to soft. Kenny Johnson wore spurs (yes really) when he booted home Toulouse Express last time after three successive seconds and I hope he’s wearing them again. Lingfield looks easier - famous last words - with Set The Trend (4.00) seemingly a useful prospect and Big Bound (4.30) given a simple task for the Gosden-Fortune bandwagon to keep rolling on the trainer’s 58th birthday. Everard (5.30) is dropped two grades for his first handicap despite a good run at Newmarket in October. We shall only know after the event whether that means he hasn’t grown much over the winter or the trainer wants to give him a confidence-building win first time. Roll on Aintree.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 5pts win TOULOUSE EXPRESS (2.40 Newcastle) BET 6pts win (nap) SET THE TREND (4.00 Lingfield) BET 5pts win BIG BOUND (4.30 Lingfield) BET 1pt win and 1pt place TREEKO (4.40 Newcastle) BET 3pts win EVERARD (5.30 Lingfield) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt treble Big Bound, Set The Trend and Toulouse Express.
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Ireland's Eye - Monday

Monday 30 March

IRELAND'S EYE 

Winning Counsel (9/2-4/1) delivered the goods in the hunter chase at Downpatrick yesterday and in addition out second choice The Reverend (3/1) scored at the expense of our main choice in the Kelso equivalent to give us clear profit on the day while our reserve Jamadiel (3/1) went down narrowly at the Northern Ireland venue in the handicap chase.

Todays port of call is Newcastle where we can grab a profit in supporting a consistent sort in the opener whilst the novice hurdle can go to an improving youngster.

Former point winner Finbin landed his point for Mark Molloy in Clonakilty on his final effort between the flags’ last year and the Hogarth trained 7yo is showing signs of returning to the winners enclosure on the evidence of his fair second in Hexham on soft on his fourth start for his new yard. He should be suited by the drying ground (won on good in point) whilst the step up to 3m should not prove an obstacle in the curtain raiser in Newcastle at 2-10 but possibly a better bet could be the consistent Whillians runner Pay On who will definitely be suited by the step up in distance and the Evan Whillans 6yo may just prove the best bet here though the somewhat frustrating Nicky Richards runner Glen Rouge cannot be overlooked on his return from a ‘break’ as he boasts fair course Park form.

The 2m 4f novice hurdle on the card at 3-40 should mainly concern Presque Perdre and Dancing Dik and on their only previous meeting the latter came out on top on soft ground in Ayr over the distance. Both have won in the interim with Presque Perde easily landing a modest Sedgefield event while the 4yo Dancing Dik just got the better of the admittedly dubious Whispering Death in Chepstow. Chris Grants youngster is just given the vote to land the double under 5lb claimer Lucy Horner as he would appear to have plenty in hand on official ratings (21lbs with claim) and there should be more to come from the son of Diktat.

ADVICE
3pt win PAY ON 2-10 Newcastle
2pt win (saver) FINBIN 2-10 Newcastle
5pt win DANCING DIK 3-40 Newcastle

DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 29 March 22-1 FIRST-DAY WINNER: Daqman made a stunning start to the Flat at Doncaster yesterday with a big-odds one-two in the Spring Mile. He had three bets in the race, including Manassas (won 22-1) and Extraterrestrial (2nd 16-1). 15 IN A ROW? Daqman has landed 14 consecutive lays. Today, number 15 runs in one of the Leopardstown Classic Trials. NEW READERS START HERE: Daqman acts as an interpreter to some racing parlance and stable advice which caught out punters from Doncaster to Dubai yesterday. I think I’ll bring out a handbook for punters to help them interpret trainers’ ways and jockeys’ lore. Here are three from yesterday’s racing: When John Gosden says a horse is doubtful because of the ground, he means: This is actually a Group horse running in a handicap; we don’t want to jar him up if there’s no juice in the ground. John, it’s March: there are no summer ‘roads’ like Brighton and Yarmouth in March. We’ve had months of ‘juice’ going into the ground. It’s called an English winter. Richard Hannon, quote, unquote re. the Duty Free in Dubai: ‘Paco Boy will stay.’ The missing words here, Richard, are: ‘at the back.’ No, I agree, that’s facetious. What was really missing from the trainer’s estimation was an understanding of the pace of the race. It contained a front-runner called Gladiatorus, who is a freak: he had already broken the 7f track record and, even if he wasn’t going to last out the nine furlongs yesterday, he was going to burst a lot of lungs along the way, particularly those of suspect stayers. In fact, he caught the jockeys napping but not too much blame can be placed on them, since he came close to another record. Ignore the race altogether regarding Paco Boy: he still has a chance in a sedately-run Lockinge. Finally: ‘The first race (at Doncaster) will tell us where any draw bias is.’ That should read: ‘Once the jockeys fancy there’s a draw bias, almost all will crowd over that side in ensuing straight-course races.’ Doncaster is fairly bland today. A large helping of duff pudding, with one or two exceptions. The English remain frightened of making a big thing of Sunday racing, mindful that there is no terrestrial TV. The Doncaster Shield is no more than a handicap dressed up and, sticking to our theme of interpreting trainers’ minds, if I were Dandy Nicholls, I’d ‘go for it’ with the former Aidan O’Brien pacemaker Hindu Kush, 12.0 on Betdaq this morning. If he were still with O’Brien, Kindu Kush (3.40) would be a short price here after the way he stayed on to be fourth in the St Leger. He went off hard that day and the same tactics – doing a Gladiatorus - could demolish today’s field. Of course, Dandy could be ‘having a look-see.’ But at what? The race contains five horses aged seven and over, old-timers at this level. Why ‘bury’ him in that lot when the prize is his for the taking. From the front. The 6f dash (4.15) looks a minefield built on a swamp, after winners in the last four runnings at 66-1, 40-1 and 16-1 (twice); however, I opened my big mouth when Thebes won at Wolver and said he could be a top sprinter in the making. And didn’t I say something similar when Palace Moon won last summer? Oops! At least we have two lightly-raced four-year-olds running on either side for us, with Thebes in stall 20 and Palace Moon in two. You have to throw in the Hills’ runner, Good Gorsoon; like Prime Defender, he has to be caught early season. And, thankyou very much, he’s drawn in the middle! Early-form trainers are to be followed at this time of year and Pat and Paul Eddery did a steering job in the Brocklesby yesterday: only at a price would I back their Koraleva Tectona (3.05) in such a big field, and 14.5 on the Daq as I write is good enough for a little each way. My best gallops report concerns Orbitor (4.50); he’s been going nicely but I won’t be trapped into big bets on short-priced three-year-olds until the form settles down. Cue the Classic trials at Leopardstown. In that fictitious notebook, it would be written: ‘In Classic trials, ignore last season’s two-year-old form. That was last year. This is this year.’ In each trial today, favourites have won only once in the last four years. In that time, the 1,000 trial has produced two Classic placed and one Guineas winner (2005, Virginia Water). The 2,000 trial has produced only yardsticks. I wouldn’t have Intense Focus (3.00) on my mind for a Classic, and he doesn’t even appeal today: though well exposed, wearing blinkers, and having had some very hard races last year (jockey twice ‘done’ under whip rules), he is such long odds on this morning that I can lay him without much hurt to the bank if he manages to win.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 10pts INTENSE FOCUS (3.00 Leopardstown) BET 1pt win and 1pt place KORALEVA TECTONA (3.05 Doncaster) BET 3pts win and 2pts place HINDU KUSH (3.40 Doncaster) BET 2pts win on each GOOD GORSOON, PALACE MOON and THEBES (4.15 Doncaster) BET 3pts win ORBITOR (4.50 Doncaster)
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Ireland's Eye on Sunday

Sunday 29 March

IRELAND'S EYE 

Another short priced double yesterday courtesy of Kangaroo Court (13/8-10/11) and Deutchland (4/9) kept our run going though our lays failed to click though Predatuers task was simplified by the non appearance of our selection Personal Column in Uttoxeter.

Today we will concentrate on the hunter chases at the three meetings in Kelso, Newton Abbot and Downpatrick where there looks to be a couple of value wagers.

The former Eugene O’Sullivan trained Fruitfull Citizen has been in fine form ‘between the flags’ in England of late and she will have her supporters to land the 2-20 in Newton Abbot – a 2m 5 1/2f hunter chase under 7lb claimer Lucy Jones. However we will take on the daughter of Anshan with the decent pointer Touch Of Flame for the Cumings yard to open his account in the hunter chase sphere at the age of 10. Alroyal is another to consider.

Ted Gunther has let this column down on a couple of occasions but the Fahy runner is given another chance to open his account under Rules (maiden in points also) under his 7lb claimer in the 2m 5 1/2f hc chase in Downpatrick. Though beaten when falling at the last in down Royal over 3m last time the 7yo is suited by this shorter trip and he should get the better of prolific point winner Jamadiel off a low weight though Shay Slevins runner has shown his best form with some ‘cut’ in the ground.

The 2m 5 1/2f hunter chase in Downpatrick at 4-55 looks a typically open affair with several holding leading chances. However we will narrow it down to two with Gerard Keanes Steviemac just getting the nod over the useful and successful (in points) mare Winning Counsel. The former pulled off a nice ‘touch; for connections when scoring in style in a Nenagh maiden on third point start and was not disgraced when taking a modest fourth behind the top notch An Siorrac on hunter chase debut recently. However Ian Fergusons 7yo mare Winning Counsel will be ideally suited by the drying ground and she looks set to improve on her second in a Tyrella point recently and give the selection a serious test under 5lb claimer Ross O’Sullivan. Noel Meades Brynner – who would have collected on his point debut but for running out at the last in Tyrella – also holds a leading chance.

We took a chance with the useful Robbers Glen in the Christies Foxhunters chase in Cheltenham and though the 9yo never really got into the fray he did stay on to take a reasonable fifth spot behind the useful Cappa Bleu. Although it is somewhat perilous tipping some Cheltenham runners (example Fair Point yesterday) this course and distance scorer can land a competitive looking 3m 1f in Kelso this afternoon at 5-00 under regular pilot though he has to give weight away to all his rivals. The Reverend finished in front of the selection in early February and rates a big danger following a wide margin success over the course (2m 6 1/2f) last time on soft. In the hope that the better ground will suit our selection better he is taken to land his fourth chase win. Useful point to point winner A Boy Named Sioux cannot be left out of calculations either.

ADVICE
3pt win TOUCH OF FATE 2-20 Newton Abbot
1pt win (saver) FRUITFULL CITIZEN 2-20 Newton Abbot
4pt win TED GUNTHER 4-20 Downpatrick
2pt win (saver) JAMADIEL 4-20 Downpatrick
4pt win STEVIEMAC 4-55 Downpatrick
3pt win (saver) WINNING COUNSEL 4-55 Downpatrick
5pt win ROBBERS GLEN 5-00 Kelso
3pt win (saver) THE REVEREND 5-00 Kelso

DAQMAN on SATURDAY

Saturday 28 March NOW IT’S 14 IN A ROW!  Daring Daqman sank another favourite yesterday: his 14th consecutive winning lay was French Saulaie (unplaced 9-4). Daqman rarely allows himself to bend his own rule – to lay favourites only – though some have drifted before the race. The 14 losing Bismarcks at SP were: 5-2, 3-1, 11-4, 9-4, 4-1, 4-1, 8-1, 8-1, 7-2, 11-10, 4-1, 2-1, 1-1 and now 9-4. He also landed his nap, Designated Decoy (won 5-4), in Ireland last night, bringing to 33 his winning-bets total in the last fortnight. Now look out today for his 29.0 Betdaq each-way bet on the Lincoln and his 18.0 and 16.5 outsiders in the Spring Mile. What a trainer! He’s pitched two horses into the Lincoln off a winning weight, and he’s got one drawn low and one drawn high. No, not John Gosden, but Barry Hills. Gosden worked the same plot, with Expresso Star and Charm School on the right weight mark and in stalls on different sides. But Gosden needs rain so badly for Expresso Star that he may be withdrawn after his assistant walks the track. Charm School won first time out last season when the ground was soft and missed the summer surfaces, reappearing in the autumn. Hils’ pair, Huzzah and Zaahid, will both like the firmish ground and are 11.5 and 14.5 respectively on the Daq as I write, even though Doncaster didn’t have enough rain overnight to wet a lettuce. Things could change but, on form and on a sound surface, and with a deluge unlikely, the obvious dangers are Swop and Whistledownwind (29.0). Whistledownwind has worked well with Group horses in the visor he wears for the first time in public today and his age – four year olds have won the last four on Town Moor -  and his stall (10) fit the current trends. They say you need extremes of the draw, high or low; but the last two winners of the Lincoln run at Doncaster (2008 and 2005) came from 12 and 13. Today’s Spring Mile may tell us more and you may want to wait until around 3 o’clock for your final Spring Double decisions. 2.45 Doncaster (Spring Mile): In a tight handicap - only 7lb separates top and bottom – my best information is for Manassas, Fireside and Extraterrestrial, who won the Thirsk Hunt Cup early on last season and has had an AW run to get him straight. Richard Fahey has had five placed (three won) from his last seven runners, and 16.5 on Betdaq this morning was excellent each-way value. Manassas (18.0) has been laid out for this and is expected to be the gamble of the race; has bet and lay written all over it.                                                                                                                      3.00 Kempton (Rosebery Stakes): If Fireside goes well in the Spring Mile, connections of Cape Express will be doubling their bets; the pair have been working together in very good form. Again, there’s only 9lb between the fancied horses here and Michael Jarvis won this last year with one on a pound higher mark. 3.55 Doncaster (Lincoln Handicap): Jeremy Noseda gave 99-rated Whistledownwind a serious final workout over 6f with two useful types, 109-rated Express Wish (working very well lately) and the 106-rated Awinnersgame, a close 6th in the Goffs Million. The trio went a hard pace with Express Wish leading but it was easy to see Shane Kelly oozing confidence as he loomed upsides hard on the bit on Whistledownwind and, opening up his reigns, he stretched out a length to the good. I take Huzzah and Zaahid with Whistledownwind as my outsider. The going has made fools of us before, and we’ve had stable warnings that have put us off a winner but the risk is greater than the prevailing odds about today’s Lincoln favourite as I write. London Bridge (4.30) would be compensation for the Gosden yard, if his big-race pair fail to act on the ground; worked comfortably with the useful Racketeer on Tuesday. Above Average has also been showing up well at home. 5.20 Kempton (Queen’s Prize): Meshtri (5.20) is another to have worked well with Fireside and has looked a well-handicapped stayer on the gallops. Gala Evening and Benhego love the course but both are raised in class and Downhiller, sure to handle the polytrack, is a bigger threat from a yard which usually fires early. 5.30 Nad Al Sheba (World Cup): Doubtful stayer Albertus Maximus has lost his position at the head of the market, as money comes for Asiatic Boy, leaving the improver Casino Drive at an each-way trade.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and 1pt place on each EXTRATERRESTRIAL and MANASSAS, plus 2pts win FIRESIDE (2.45 Doncaster) BET 5pts win CAPE EXPRESS (3.00 Kempton) BET 2pts win on each HUZZAH and ZAAHID, plus 1pt win and 1pt place WHISTLEDOWNWIND (3.55 Doncaster) BET 4pts win LONDON BRIDGE, plus 2pts win and 2pts place ABOVE AVERAGE (4.30 Doncaster) BET 2pts win and 2pts place DOWNHILLER, plus 2pts win MESHTRI (5.20 Kempton) BET 3pts win and 3pts place CASINO DRIVE (5.30 Nad Al Sheba) MULTIPLES ANTE-POST BET 6 x 1pt win and place doubles HUZZAH, WHISTLEDOWNWIND and ZAAHID (Lincoln) with BUTLERS CABIN and RAMBLING MINSTER (Grand National).
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Ireland's Eye on Saturday

Saturday 28 March

IRELAND'S EYE 

Though our saver Mutenbar (5-9/2) did collect for us yesterday there was a touch of seconditis with our main plays with Mizen Raven (7/2-3/1) soundly beaten by the gambled on Fire And Rain whilst Ashka was doing her best work late when filling the runner up berth in Dundalk last night.

Today we have selections at three meetings with a few horses who have done the business for us in the past and we unearth a big priced winner in a Navan handicap.

Kangaroo Court never really featured behind Go Native in Cheltenham but Ema Lavelles decent 5yo can get back to winning ways in the opening 2m 3 1/2f novice hurdle on the Linfield card under Jack Doyle at 2-15. He looks to have Nicky Hendersons recent good Sandown winner Tanks For That to beat but he just gets the nod over the six year old.

Though Arthur Moores Takendo has yet to taste success in the National hunt sphere the 7yo can land the 3-40 on the Navan card, a 2m hc hurdle under Paddy Flood at the seventeenth attempt! He showed his well being with a victory in a Dundalk 1m 4f flat hc a month ago and a reproduction of his fourth to Sky Captain in a competitive Naas hc in early January should suffice here with drying ground another positive. Eric McNamaras Jafra rates the main danger whilst the favourite Mutadarek will also have his supporters.

Predateur is hardly one of the stars of the talent laden Paul Nicholls yard and the 6yo is still looking for his first win over fences in the 3-45 in Uttoxeter which is a 2m 4f novice event. Though he has plenty in hand of his main rivals on hurdle ratings we will take him on here on his ninth attempt over the larger obstacles where Personal Column, who has been beaten some way on both starts to date could step up appreciably on these efforts for the Sturgis stable with better ground a cause for optimism.

Another former Irish pointer who did not show his true colours at the Festival was Fair Point who did not jump well in the four miler before finishing well behind in mid field. Though it can be costly following horses who could have had hard races in Cheltenham subsequently this 7yo who represents the Charlie Mann yard has shown plenty of battling qualities over fences to date and he can bounce back by landing the 4-00 on the Linfield card – a 3m novice chase under the in form Noel Fehily where the talented but somewhat flawed Lodge Lane will start favourite sporting first time blinkers.

The 4-50 on the Navan card is a typically open looking 2m 6f hc hurdle and though we are tempted to side with Halfback again following his good second to the gambled on Liscarton Oscar in Naas a fortnight ago we will go with an interesting low weigh in the shape of the Eric McNamara trained Emona Lad who is having his third run back following an absence. Though the 7yo ‘cut no ice’ in these runs on soft ground he will appreciate the drying ground here and at big odds and a 7lb claimer to bring his weight to 10-4 he rates a speculative bet.

Willie Mullins Deutchland finally delivered for us last time when landing the odds in style in Leopardstown and the Ruby Walsh ridden 6yo can make it a double in the closing 2m novice chase in Navan at 5-50 and in the process overturn the returning Aran Concerto. The latter would be a worthy favourite on easier ground and a longer trip but he could be vulnerable over this trip despite the fact that he is defending an unbeaten 3 win record at the venue.

ADVICE
5pt win KANGAROO COURT 2-15 Linfield
lay to lose 6pts FOSTERS CROSS 3-05 Navan
4pt win TAKENDO 3-40 Navan
2pt win (saver) JAFRA 3-40 Navan
4pt win PERSONAL COLUMN 3-45 Uttoxeter
lay to win 8pts PREDATUER 3-45 Uttoxeter
4pt win FAIR POINT 4-00 Linfield
3pt win 1pt place EMONA LAD 4-50 Navan
2pt win (saver) HALFBACK 4.50 Navan
6pt win DEUTCHLAND 5-50 Navan






 

Alan McInally's Weekend Preview

I am currently recovering in hospital recovering from my umpteenth knee operation but will be back in the full swing of things next week at Sky Sports and more importantly Betdaq Extra!

I am supremely confident that we will finish the domestic season with a string of winning trades but for now here are my three picks on this International weekend.

Slovakia on Asian Handicap (+1.5) @ 2.02  v  England

Lay Wales @ 2.3  v  Finland

Back Israel @ 2.56  v  Greece

Good luck to you all on the "Daq" this weekend! 
 

Gary Selby - Dubai World Cup

Saturday 28 March

Bookmaker GARY SELBY reports LIVE from Dubai ahead of Saturday's Dubai World Cup meeting at Nad Al Sheba.

Gary takes on a short priced favourite later today.

For all the latest news from Gary simply press play on our DAQCAST below:

Saturday Update:

 

Friday Update:

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