DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 31 March GRAND NATIONAL SPECIAL: Starting today, Daqman takes a two-way look at Saturday’s National. TODAY he examines the lessons of the race’s history, how some of the stats pan out. It’s Daqman dispelling The Seven Deadly Myths. TOMORROW: Are you on the right horse at the right price? Daqman looks at each runner from a value-betting point of view, examining their ability and style of running. L’Ami wins the Grand National if you take the average weight carried over the last 10 years but he’s nobody’s friend on breeding: no French horse has won since 1909. Thumbs down. But there was a similar knock-out stat against Comply Or Die, last year’s winner: 146 starters had tried to win in headgear since 1975 and all had failed. Until the blinkered Comply or Die. So, if the stats anorak gets roasted by the exception that proves the rule, is it any use at all looking at the history of the race? The short answer is: yes. It’s an answer best supported by the dispelling of some old myths, like the now infamous ‘two and two-and-a-half-mile horses often win the National’: the stats proved this was hopelessly wrong. It happened once or twice; Gay Trip (1970) probably gave birth to the myth. Here’s another one: ‘Bad jumpers can rise to the challenge of the Aintree fences and win the National.’ Not on your nelly. The truth is slightly different: those which can make the odd mistake or take their fences lazily may sharpen up and concentrate more when faced with Aintree; they have to. Regular fallers have no chance. Myth number three: ‘You need a young animal to win the National.’ Largely wrong. If you’re an iron horse like Red Rum or a granite giant like 18-hands-high Party Politics, yes. But five of the last eight winners have been aged in double figures. Since 1975, horses aged 10 and upwards have scored 21 times, nearly twice that of the youngsters (12 wins); in fact, 9-year-olds (9 wins) have the best record, followed by 10-year-olds (8), 11-year-olds (7), 12-year-olds (6) and 8-year-olds (3). Myth number four: ‘The same horses are placed in the National over and over again.’ That used to be true in the good old bad old days of the likes of Red Rum and L’Escargot when the fences were more ferocious. Amberleigh House, Hedgehunter and Slim Pickings are recent examples but, in the last 25 years, a progressively easier course has given many more horses a chance and rings the changes almost every season. No horse has won back to back since ‘Rummy’ himself in 1973-74. It’s more reasonable to ask: ‘Which horses have run and jumped well over the Grand National fences?’ That would have to include races like the Becher Chase. Myth number five: ‘A good horse can win whatever the weight.’ Sorry. Wrong again. There’s been no winner with more than 11st 1lb since 1983 and, again, only ‘Rummy’ has carried top weight to win since the heyday of racing before the war in the age of Golden Miller (1934). Myth number six: ‘It’s no good betting in the Grand National; it’s a lottery and outsiders always win.’ False. Only Silver Birch (bless him) has started bigger than 16-1 in the last six years; 14 of the last 18 winners came from the first eight in the market at SP. Even the story that Lottery (1839) was the first winner is a myth; he was the first Aintree winner but the same race at Magull was won in 1836 by The Duke. In any case, it wasn’t called the Grand National until 1847. And finally, myth number seven: ‘Cheltenham is the championship meeting, so just follow Cheltenham form!” Bad blunder. That one comes a huge cropper: only one Cheltenham Festival winner has gone on to National fame since 1961. That was 30 years later when the boss of the Grand National sponsors, Seagram, sold his horse; he didn’t believe it could win at Cheltenham and Aintree. In 47 years out of 48, he would have been right. It’s name by the way was Seagram. Betdaq in-running tip: the winner may be out of the picture on the first circuit but, in all bar two of the last 20 runnings, they were prominent right from the start of the second circuit. Finally, here’s a fact that can win you a pint in the pub: since 1985, the names of a huge 17 out of 23 winners have begun with a letter from L to W in the alphabet. Amazing? Not really, most horses names are at the bottom end of the alphabet (‘R’ is the most common initial letter). But it is rather odd that, in three of the four years just before that (1980 to 1983) horses beginning with A, B, and C won it. Easy as, isn’t it!
TODAY'S BETS
DAQ MULTIPLES: 6 x 1pt win doubles Chrysander (3.40 Wetherby), The Hague (3.50 Southwell), Manere Bay (4.35 Folkestone) and Sphere (5.05 Folkestone).
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