Betdaq Extra

Ireland's Eye on Saturday

Saturday 28 February

IRELAND'S EYE

As usual it is a busy Saturday and we will spread our net wide and far to weed out the value at four of these meetings with Newbury and Navan proving the main selections.

The ex Liam Burkes Definity duly followed up his good win in an Athlacca point with a workmanlike performance in a Wincanton 2m 6f novice three months ago and the 6yo can keep his unbeaten record in the 1-35 in Newbury which is a 3m 1/2f Class 3 event. On breeding he should be suited by the step up in trip and better ground will hold no fears and he can see off the formerly useful English pointer and bumper winner Run For Moor who is getting 6lbs from the selection. However the latter tends to pull hard and this is not a plus over the demanding Newbury circuit.

Farmacaffley point winner Ballinderry Park is finally getting his act together in England and Noel Fehilys mount in the 2-30 in Kelso – a 2m 1/2f novice hurdle can follow up his Folkestone win in handicap over a furlong longer and justify favouritism. The way he travelled there indicate that the shorter trip will not be a hinderance and the Charlie Mann inmate has been showing improved form since settling better.

Nigel Twiston Davies yard have suffered somewhat of a mid season slump but there are signs recently that they could be back on track and their representative in the Grade 3 hc chase in Newbury over 2m 4f – The Hollow Bottom is worth a wager under Paddy Brennan at 3-10. Though he did disappoint on testing ground last time he is suited by the better underfoot conditions and off 10-4 he could be a player here where the ex pointer Hold Em (who is running quite well in handicaps of late) could pose the major threat.

Apollo Creed – another ex pointer – proved very successful for the Twiston Davies stable when landing a brace of hurdles and three chases last August on good and better ground. The 7yo makes his seasonal debut in the Class 2 3m 2f hc chase in Doncaster at 3-25 and the David England ridden gelding can make the step up in grade by landing this pot off joint bottom weight of 10 stone here where the main contenders have questions to answer for a variety of reasons. Another former pointer Out The Black could pose the biggest danger.

The 3m novice chase on the Navan card at 3-50 looks far from easy to solve with question marks against favourite Rare Bob on the grounds of trip and it could pay to side with the lightly raced Tasman from the Liam McAteer. The 9yo boasts a good win to run strike rate, a good record on the course (won once and placed other 2 efforts) and in addition was not disgraced when failing to give 7lbs to subsequent scorer Hurricane Carter in Gowran on his comeback run over a month ago. He can beat the Willie Mullins trained Equus Maximus and Raven’s Run who surprisingly seemed not to get home last time.

Willie Mullins and Paul Townend can combine to land the 2m 4f novice chase at Navan at 4-25 with Captain Conflict who has been showing up well with decent placed efforts in his two starts over fences to date. The Close Conflict gelding can make it third time lucky here where the chase debutant Laura’s Light and Hotel Hilamar are the obvious dangers.

ADVICE
5pt win DEFINITY 1-35 Newbury
2pt win (saver) RUN FOR MOOR 1-35 Newbury
6pt win (nap) BALLINDERRY PARK 2-30 Kelso
3pt win THE HOLLOW BOTTOM 3-10 Newbury
1pt win (saver) HOLD EM 3-10 Newbury
3pt win APOLLO CREED 3-25 Doncaster
1pt win (saver) OUT THE BLACK 3-25 Doncaster
4pt win TASMAN 3-50 Navan
1pt (saver) EQUUS MAXIMUS 3-50 Navan
6pt win CAPTAIN CONFLICT 4-25 Navan
1pt doubles, trebles and accum on BETDAQ – BALLINDERRY PARK, CLOUDY LANE, WENDEL and OR JAUNE

 

DAQMAN on SATURDAY

Saturday 28 February A ‘star’ bet at better than 8-1 in the big race. Two dark horses, one by name and one by nature. A banker. And a favourite to lay. That’s the package from Daqman for Newbury today, plus  another ‘star’ bet at Doncaster, maybe a coincidence double for your Daq Multiples. Daqman has multiple bets of his own, plus hot news of a jockey switch in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Spring must have sprung: there’s no all-weather racing, the Pipes have their annual pre-Cheltenham plot and Man U are cruising in the Premier League. But it’s definitely a Carling Cup day today with all the big stuff still to come and the so-called Gold Cup at Newbury has a hollow bottom to it. No I don’t think I want the horse of that name, nor do I want Natal: the handicapper has crucified them both for jobs well done or nearly so: he’s reluctant to forgive Natal his Punchestown second to Twist Magic and he was harsh to bump up The Hollow Bottom stone after stone, literally – 15lb and then 13lb – for back to back wins in the same Aintree race. Connections didn’t seem worried and made him favourite at Aintree in November, but he got stuck in the mud. My verdict: I’ll mark him down for a drying day at Aintree next month. The Pipe plot, which might be one of those preludes to a Cheltenham handicap, is a different matter: it’s one of those old Martin moments when you have to suspend disbelief more in the manner of Scorsese than Pipe and enter into the drama of one coming from the dark side to butcher the usual suspects. The Package has no right to be favourite, no known form of any relevance but, as a Pipe lightweight, ‘could be anything.’ Yet trainer David tells us in the Racing Post: ‘He’s got a small chance.” Not even Martin had his tongue that far in his cheek, did he? Hold ‘Em looks a nearly horse, exposed like Stan; Ouzbeck has to bounce back from falls or unseated in three of his last four starts; and I wouldn’t want a front-runner (Hobbs Hill) when there’s a possible Pipe tearaway to mess with his head. How’s this one for an alternative package? His form-figures over fences at this kind of trip are 111. He likes the sounder surface. He goes well fresh. And he’s won all his NH races between January and April. That’s Starzaan (3.10), a nice 9.8 each-way trade on Betdaq this morning. Another one who used to win fresh, and is now dropped to a veterans’ race, is course-winner Darkness (2.35); he, too, got bogged down in the mud last time out, in the Welsh National, and I hear he is strongly fancied today. Church Island won a similar race 10 days ago, his first win for three years; with that sort of strike rate, and having had to travel twice, he’s the sort I like to take on. Lay. Incidentally, Tony McCoy, who rides Darkness, seems to have dropped Alberta’s Run and switched to Exotic Dancer for the Gold Cup after the pair were galloped the other day. Definity (1.35) is reckoned Paul Nicholls’ best of the day: the trainer is a creature of habit and he ran, and won with, this one in a race he reserves for future steeplechase stars. At Kempton, Hell’s Bay (3.20) is another Nicholls’ standout for the Daq Multiples, and Hohlethelonely (1.45) looks a decent bet dropped back to novice company. At Doncaster, Star Beat (2.55) has got his ground and a similar weight mark to go for a repeat in the handicap hurdle. I’m obliged to have a pound on Noir Et Vert (3.25): I was in on the gamble last time when first the rains came to dilute his chances, then he was hampered out of the race. Wendel (4.10) is the Kelso one for your Daq Multiples; he’s already finished in front of Alfie Flits who, in turn, holds Doeslessthanme. Wendel has clearly done more than most.
TODAY'S BETS
BANKER 10pts win DEFINITY (1.35 Newbury) BET 5pts win HOLETHELONELY (1.45 Kempton) BET 3pts win and 2pts place STARZAAN and 1pt win THE PACKAGE (3.10 Newbury) LAY to win 10pts CHURCH ISLAND and BET 6pts win DARKNESS (2.35 Newbury) BET 2pts win and 1pt place STAR BEAT (2.55 Doncaster) BET 2pts win and 2pts place NOIR ET VERT (3.25 Doncaster) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3x 1pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble DEFINITY (1.35 Newbury), HELL’S BAY (3.20 Kempton) and WENDEL (4.10 Kelso).
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Alan McInally's Weekend Preview

SATURDAY 28th FEBRUARY

TUNE INTO OUR LATEST DAQCAST !!!

ALAN MCINALLY chatting with RUSS WISEMAN ahead of a bumper weekend action which features the Carling Cup Final on Sunday between MAN U and SPURS.

Click PLAY below and Alan will mark your card....

Ireland's Eye - Friday

Friday 27 February

IRELAND'S EYE

Starting today and on the run up right to the Cheltenham Festival we will attempt to eke out the value in every race on the DAQ and day one will concentrate on the some of the major races which include the Champion Hurdle.

Though the market indicates that both of the feature races this year are more are less ‘done and dusted’ with Binocular and Kauto Star dominating their respective races.

However though both are entitled to be favourites they both look vulnerable with Binocular – brilliant as he was in Boylesport Hurdle in Ascot - has not fully convinced that Cheltenham will play to his strengths whilst Kauto Star has to do something which has not been done with a considerable time and that he is to regain the Gold Cup crown which he took in 2006.

If there is a chink in the armour of Binocular in the Champion Hurdle it could be last years runner up Osana who looks the most likely to benefit. David Pipes 7yo was just touched off by Katchit last year and arguably would have gone close if ridden with more restraint as Tom Scudamore attempted to make all and was a ‘sitting duck’ in the latter stages. Though he did go down to Celestial Halo in Sandown on only start this season the word from the Pipe yard was that the son of Video Rock would come on for the run and at 12-5 on the Daq he looks better value than the ‘jolly’.

Ireland has a fine record in the Tuesday centrepiece in recent years and though confidence is not that high this year there are a couple of likely candidates for the major price and these include Noel Meades Jered and Sabrina Hartys Won In The Dark who ran a fine race in taking third in the Triumph hurdle last year and has never run a bad race at the venue. At odds of 56-0 on the Daq he looks a sporting win and place bet.

The former will certainly be suited by drying ground and though he has the dubious handicap of not seeing racecourse action since mid November he could represent value at 28-0 on Betdaq at present and these odds would decrease if the ground were to come up on the fast side in less than two weeks time.

Yesterday proved most profitable with Jessies Dream (3/1) romping home in the 2m 4f maiden hurdle in Thurles and in the same race we managed our tenth successful lay out of 11 when we got Judge Roy Bean (8/11) turned over to register an 11pt profit on the day.

In addition we also scored with our saver Clan Tara (5-4/1) whilst we may have been somewhat unfortunate not to get Cru (7/4) home in the opener as she looked the most likely winner only to tip up at the last.

Today we will switch our attention to the all weather in Dundalk tonight where there are a few interesting bumpers!

The concluding 2m 1/2f mares hc hurdle in Doncaster at 4-45 could fall to the Ferdy Murphy trained I’m Delilah who ran well when going down narrowly in Musselburgh over a month ago. The lightly raced 7yo looks on a favourable mark on her first handicap and she can land the prize here under Graham Lee at the expense of the consistent Fairyland.

World Shift landed a competitive Bandon maiden point on debut and would have followed up but for falling at the last in a Summerhill winners race which was won by subsequent dual Park winner Burton Port.

Though the 5yo has not shown that much in three starts in Britain in the interim the Evan Williams trained gelding could be worth a small interest in the concluding 3m 1/2f conditional jockeys novice hc hurdle in Newbury at 4-55 under Donie Fahy.

Though there are a couple of interesting and potentially dangerous looking newcomers in show in the 7-10 in Dundalk – a 2m 2f mares bumper the call is the Conor O’Dwyer trained Derrinlanna who shaped well on her sole start when finishing a staying on fifth in a Punchestown bumper some two months ago. She should be suited by the trip especially if there is a decent gallop and she can score at the expense of interesting and well bred debutant Pretty Valira from the Ted Walsh yard while Willie Mullins Lady Chimera is another to consider. Recent point winner Retain That Magic could also make an impact on her Park debut.

The Conor O’Dwyer/Paul Roche combination could land a double on the card in the following 2m 2f bumper with another once raced sort in the 5yo Rockadare. A son of Broadway Flyer his debut last May in a decent Punchestown bumper which has thrown up several subsequent scorers could be good enough to take the spoils here if stripping fit and he could have most to fear from Devils Rock who only just lost out to a fair sort in Borrowaddy over the course and a furlong less back last November.

ADVICE
3pt win I’M DELILAH 4-45 Newbury
1pt (saver) FAIRYLAND 4-45 Newbury
2pt win WORLD SHIFT 4-55 Newbury
4pt win DERRINLANNA 7-10 Dundalk
1pt saver (saver) PRETTY VALIRA 7-10 Dundalk
4pts win ROCKADARE 7-40 Dundalk
2pt win (saver) DEVILS ROCK 7-40 Dundalk 

DAQMAN on FRIDAY

Friday 27 February Daqman goes for a quick single in yet another Betdaq-sponsored race today but promises another mighty hit tomorrow in his Saturday innings following his two 12-1 strikes on Wednesday. Yesterday he warned - while it was odds against on Betdaq - that Veracity (won 4-5) was ‘a lay down’ to maximum stakes in the Cup race at the Dubai Carnival. The rest of the day went to the layers but Daqman takes them on again today when he lays an odds-on shot in, yes you guessed it, another cracking Betdaq-sponsored contest at Lingfield. Did you spot that only eight horses on the racecard all day at Fakenham today have won a race since 2007? Did you shudder that four of the races at Newbury clock up 70 runners? Did you notice that the first five in the betting forecast for the appropriately named all-weather Dundalk On-Course Bookmakers Race (only the word ‘ benefit’ is missing) have not run on the Flat for a total of 1,332 days? I just thought I’d mention these things so that you have plenty of ammunition at the end of the day to explain why you didn’t get a winner, and can use such expressions as ‘what can you do?’ What, indeed, can you do? My answer on a day of six meetings with as many runners as there are billions given away to my local bank is, if you remember my style, first of all to find the quality races and secondly to hunt the horses with potential (‘nuggets’). As far as quality goes, there’s a rare form race for Class 4 in the Bet In Running Betdaq Handicap (4.30) at Lingfield: every single runner was placed last time out and all bar one have finished in the first five in all of their last six starts. It’s hot, and there’ll be no dawdling with front-runner Theatre Street in the race. I fancy Quick Single from the in-form McEntee stable. As for a bet in running, I’d rather a lay in running Theatre Street in the hope that he gets collared late on. In the Bet Carling Cup Final Betdaq Handicap (2.15), Jim Crowley is two out of three for Kamanja’s stable and this one looks interesting first time in a handicap with the favourite, sprinter Itshim, stepping up a couple of furlongs. Itshim is also up in grade – two grades, in fact, on his first 5f success – and this is also a change of venue. As well as Kamanja, we have two previous 7f winners on our side so, with very little to lose with this favourite at odds on, let’s take him on. Lay. The old Geoffrey Gilbey Trophy is the best race at Newbury but is seemingly dominated by Pepysrock (2.40) and the ‘nuggets’ at the meeting are too well touted: Nicky Henderson’s Tasheba (1.35) and Paul Nicholls’ Michel Le Bon (2.10). But my main bet there will be Ordre De Bataille (3.15). I’ve no choice really: if Ping Pong Sivola is on my short list for a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival then I surely must back the animal that gave ‘Ping Pong’ a stone and slammed it seven lengths at Huntingdon in December. Similarly, Divine Gift (4.00 Fakenham) has nothing to beat of the calibre of his last two conquerors, Heathcote, a subsequent dual winner, and Gauvain, who sprang a surprise in the Kingmaker at Sabndown on Saturday. Forty Five (2.55) is too short for ‘buying money’ but will all add to the ‘ching ching’ of the trebles in my Daq Multiples. There’s another Nicky Henderson hot-pot at Doncaster: Gold Award (2.00) has been waiting for better ground and is one for those multiples, too.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 10pts ITSHIM and BET 4pts win KAMANJA (2.15 Lingfield) BET 5pts win ORDRE DE BATAILLE (3.15 Newbury) BET 4pts win DIVINE GIFT (4.00 Fakenham) BET 3pts win QUICK SINGLE (4.30 Lingfield) DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles Gold Award (2.00 Doncaster), Pepysrock (2.40 Newbury), Forty Five (2.55 Fakenham) and Ordre de Bataille (3.15 Newbury).
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Ed Chamberlin's Weekend Preview

Friday 27 February

ED CHAMBERLIN'S WEEKEND BETTING PREVIEW

Sir Alex Ferguson has a big few weeks coming up, starting with Sunday’s Carling Cup Final against current holders Tottenham, which he hopes will herald the first trophy of an unprecedented quadruple. Spurs have an excellent cup record and with four wins in this competition, they have won it twice more than their Old Trafford rivals. One major concern for Spurs’ followers though is that since the Premier League began, there have been 29 neutral domestic cup games between a Big Four and a non-Big Four side and their win against Chelsea in last year’s final is one of only three upsets.

Since Christmas, Man United’s Premier League form has been quite simply irresistible. They have won ten games in a row, but the last time they dropped points was the goalless draw at White Hart Lane in December. The capital has not been a happy hunting ground in recent times for Ferguson’s side, winning six and losing six of their 19 visits since the start of 2006, with just two wins in their last ten. They were successful in the Carling Cup three years ago, but lost their two most recent FA Cup Final appearances in extra-time and penalties. Spurs have the best domestic cup final record of any team to appear in more than five finals, winning an incredible 12 of 15.

The key aspect all punters need to weigh up in this match is how important the game is to each manager. Ferguson will of course want to win, but has bigger fish to fry and may have one eye on the upcoming Champions League game against Inter. Redknapp has failed to build on a great start as Spurs boss, but this gives him a chance to take something from what would otherwise be a tremendously disappointing season for the North London club. The fact that the team in the higher league position has won just six of the last 16 major domestic finals inside 90 minutes, and that five of the last eight have gone to extra-time, suggests this game could go the distance. I’m tempted by the 3.85 currently available on the Daq about the draw and certainly would not put anyone off taking some of the 7.8 available about a 1-1 finish.

Away from football and Ireland host England for the second and final time in the hostile atmosphere of Croke Park for which thay are 8.5 point favourites on the Daq. Irish supporters will be desperate to seek revenge for last year’s 33-10 mauling at Twickenham and it’s pretty hard to forecast anything other than an Irish victory. The hosts may have only won 43 of the 121 games played between the two nations, but since England’s World Cup win in 2003 they have emerged victorious in four of the last five, winning both of the last two games played in Dublin.

Even though Declan Kidney’s side have racked up over 30 points in both of their last two games and scored eight tries along the way, it may well pay to side with the English with the points at around the 1.95 mark. Their performance in Wales was a huge step up from their opening display against the Italians and there is every chance that they can improve again in what may just be a tighter game than predicted. They may have conceded 43 points the last time they visited, but the Welsh only managed to score 23 points in Cardiff against them last time.

Toby Flood has stepped in to replace Andy Goode which means that England have now changed their starting fly-half seven times in ten test matches and used five different players along the way. However, it may just be a positive that only four members of the team crushed at Croke Park two years ago remain and Martin Johnson will have his players fired up. If England can maintain their discipline and not add to the eight yellow cards they’ve received in their last three outings, they have a solid enough team to contain the Irish for long spells, stop them playing flowing rugby and hopefully prevent the scoreboard from ticking over.

Elsewhere, France host Wales in Paris tonight in what should be a cracker. It’s probably worth keeping your powder dry with this one as, having originally fancied the hosts, I’m beginning to have my doubts. Not only does the French side look strange on paper, the handicap start is only 2.5 points! Scotland are a more confident selection to give up 8.5 points against the Italians and the 1.85 on the Daq should be snapped up.

Now, a Saturday afternoon’s racing wouldn’t be complete without a string of well fancied Paul Nicholls’ trained runners in a handicap and the Newbury Gold Cup is no different. The Ditcheat handler saddles top weight Natal, Mr Pointment and perennial underachiever New Little Bric, but it may pay to take a chance on Alan King’s Ouzbeck to see them all off.

He ran a stormer before taking a fall at the last in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham on ground that was far too soft and his trainer has since admitted that he shouldn’t have run him. He was back out at Kempton last weekend, but seemed fresh in the preliminaries and although he unseated at the third, he will be better for the blow out. He put in an imperious display of jumping at Prestbury Park in October on the good ground he so desperately needs, routing a top quality field off a monster weight, which shows that he has the class to win this off 11st 11lbs tomorrow.

Hold Em is the form horse in the race after his excellent fourth in the Racing Post Chase last Saturday, but you’d have to think that this will come too soon for him. One who is far more interesting is the hugely talented Hobbs Hill ridden by man of the moment AP McCoy. Charlie Egerton is in good form and if the money comes for this course and distance winner, it is worth taking notice, especially with the champ on board.

Good Luck!

 

Ireland's Eye - Thursday

Thursday 26 February

IRELAND'S EYE

Though we did succeed in landing our ninth successful lay (An Innocent Man 8/11) yesterday and had another winner in the shape of Barker (5/4-evens) it proved somewhat frustrating as our nap Bally Wall (4-7/2) just failed to get up in the hunter chase and our selection in the bumper in Bangor Timeshift (13/2-11/2) met interference at a vital stage and in addition we once again landed two winners in our Betdaq Multiple through Razor Royale and Itsallaracket.

Todays betting action is spread over three meetings with Thurles the main event for betting purposes.

Willie Mullins 5yo Cru has been somewhat disappointing on occasions over the larger obstacles but the Emmet Mullins ridden mare can put a moderate last time out effort behind by taking the opener on the Thurles card at 1-55 – a 2m 2f novice chase against her own sex. She looks ideally suited by the trip and the better ground could also assist and she could prove too strong for former useful point winner Rebel Dream who is making her chase debut.

Mark The Book let us down over the demanding Towcester circuit last time on his return from a lengthy absence and though he did start a well backed favourite there he could be worth another chance now that the cobwebs have been blown away. The towering 8yo should not be inconvenienced by the Taunton circuit in the 3-00 – a 2m 7 1/2f novice chase and Tom O’Brien can steer the useful ex point winner to success over obvious danger Predateur.

Former Farmacaffley point winner Ballinderry Park finally justified that promise when scoring with something in hand over lesser opposition over 2m 1 1/2f in a Folkestone handicap hurdle a month ago and the Charlie Mann trained and Noel Fehily ridden  progressive 6yo can beat the warm favourite and former pointer Patsy Finnegan off a seven pound higher mark whilst another Irish pointer Maree Hall could pose a bigger danger off a low weight in the 3-20 at Ludlow a 2m novice handicap hurdle.

The feature event on the Thurles card looks a decidedly open affair with several useful and progressive contenders on show. A narrow vote goes to Noel Meades Donnas Palm who proved no match for the Willie Mullins trained Mikael D’Haguenet last time but he gets a valuable few pounds here on most of his main competitors and he could get the better of the ultra consistent ex English point winner Clan Tara. Quiscover Fontaine (will be suited by step up in distance) and Caim Hill in addition to Healys Bar cannot be easily dismissed.

The 3m 1/2f novice hurdle in Taunton at 3-30 sees the ex Pat O’Connor trained dual point winner make his second start under Rules after a somewhat disappointing debut in Exeter behind Inchidaly Rock though he did finish a reasonable sixth on testing ground. Though he did have another ex pointer Cast Cada ahead of him on that occasion he could be worth chancing to confirm the fine promise shown when taking Avaune and Carrigtwohill points for the David Pipe yard under Tom Scudamore.

Judge Roy Bean will be all the rage in the 4-25 in Thurles which is a 2m 2f maiden hurdle and though Edward O’Gradys 6yo holds definite prospects he has become expensive to follow and has proved more profitable as a lay medium so we will take him on once more. This time the vote goes to the useful point and bumper winner Jessies Dream under Paul Townend for the Willie Mullins yard who showed his versatility last time when hold up tactics were employed in landing a Naas 2m 3f bumper.

ADVICE
4pt win CRU 1-55 Thurles
2pt win (saver) REBEL DREAM 1-55 Thurles
4pt win MARK THE BOOK 3-00 Taunton
5pt win BALLINDERRY PARK 3-20 Ludlow
2pt win (saver) MAREE HALL 3-20 Ludlow
3pt win DONNAS PALM 3-25 Thurles
2pt win (saver) CLAN TARA 3-25 Thurles
3pt win ANOTHER DISPLAY 3-30 Taunton
5pt win JESSIES DREAM 4-25 Thurles
lay to lose 5pts JUDGE ROY BEAN 4-25 Thurles
BETDAQ TREB Bob Hall, Tawaagg and Carthalawn

 

DAQMAN on THURSDAY

Thursday 26 February 155-1 BETDAQ-RACE DOUBLE: Betdaq not only sponsored three races on yesterday’s Folkestone card but also gave you two of the winners, courtesy of our champion tipster, Daqman. RUSSIAN TRIGGER (WON 12-1): Daqman named the winner of the Betdaq Kent National, Russian Trigger, in an interview with the trainer Victor Dartnall. QUATTROCENTO (WON 12-1): Then he warned you of Welsh raider Quattrocento for the Bet 1% In Running Betdaq Handicap Hurdle. He also picked the second, Pocketwood (2nd 13-2). 50 POINTS PROFIT: That gave him his third winning day out of the last four in which 14 successful bets have earned nearly 50 points profit. ANOTHER VALUE BET: Today he finds another value bet, trading 10.5 at Ludlow, and he has two maximum-stakes bankers, one in yet another Betdaq race at Southwell and one at Nad Al Sheba. Trainers coming out of the doldrums and getting back among the winners issue two warnings simultaneously: ignore the recent form of my horses and don’t think I haven’t been planning something while I’ve been under my cloud! We saw that brilliantly executed yesterday at Folkestone by Victor Dartnall and his stamina-packed war-horse Russian Trigger. What a player! At the same time, Peter Bowen continued his Spring surge with Quattrocento. That was his third winner from six runners in the last fortnight. Yet this morning Betdaq layers gave me 10.5 about one of Bowen’s own favourite horses, in the same ownership as Quattrocento, and running today on its preferred ground and preferred right-handed track, right down to its the lowest mark since beating Hoo La Baloo eight lengths in July 2007. Although the horse is running in the Forbra Gold Challenge Cup, he is in fact dropped in grade for the first time in more than 20 starts. Moreover, the trainer states publicly that he is ‘back to form now.’ If Iron Man (3.50 Ludlow) doesn’t win today, he darn soon will. There is a negative: he hasn’t won over the trip but half a dozen of the others haven’t either. And there are worries: Major Malarkey, for instance, from another stable emerging from under a cloud, is pitched straight into a handicap for his first chase. But he’ll have to improve; he has been given the same chase mark as over hurdles (116) and, as you might be able to see from your racecard, he was winning – in the previous race, the novices’ handicap hurdle – off 91 on this day last year and 100 is his best over the sticks. It’s simply a question of whether he is a disguised chaser. Hermano Cordobes and Chiaro have a chance of reversing this month’s Kempton form with Pretty Star, and Kilcrea Asla has been placed at a grade higher than today. But the 10.5 trade about Iron Man allows for the ifs and buts and there’s insurance in the place offers. Another first time in a handicap – and first time blinkers to boot – is Ballingaddy (4.20), seemingly sure to relish a step up in trip and from a yard that strikes at around 20% when switching to the ‘blinds’ . Recently, I’ve found three ‘two-horse’ races for a double whammy, where I lay one and back the other; two of them ended in photo-finishes and, though my lays are 8-3 up in the current sequence, I’m 2-1 down in those photos. Today at Southwell, there’s another one in the Bet Test Match Cricket – Betdaq Claiming Stakes. My yorker to bowl out the layers is My Sweet Georgia (2.40): by my ratings calculations, she would be 6-1 on without the presence of Madison Belle. These two fought it out in a similar C&D claimer last week and there’s not much between them at the weights; but the differences today are the trip -  a furlong further – and the jockeys. Madison Belle is bred for sprinting, whereas My Sweet Georgia is by Royal Applause; ‘Madison’ is ridden by an apprentice, ‘Georgia’ by Jamie Spencer. You’d think that would make for at least a shade of odds on, but Betdaq layers were offering me 2.32 this morning in what, as I say, seems a two-horse race; the rest have abysmal form so far. Come on ‘Spenny’, no married-man’s stuff; get this job done! The Carnival’s first ever marathon, the Dubai Racing Club Gold Cup looks a lay-down for Veracity (4.45 Nad Al Sheba). They simply don’t do stamina stuff over there, and Veracity’s third to Yeats in last year’s French Gold Cup stands out a mile, literally; some of the runners will be out of it by the mile pole and the principal danger in the market, Mourilyan, was a 12-furlong winner at last year’s Carnival and, along with some others in the field, was seen off by Veracity when they were second and third on the course three weeks ago, that race over 14 furlongs clearly showing Veracity’s need for today’s trip. Wolverhampton tonight sees more sponsorship from the betting exchange that doesn’t cost you money. It’s time for Calculating (7.50) in the Bet Multiples Betdaq Handicap; he’s now dropped 20lb below his last winning rating and has taken all his ‘pots’ at this time of year; I was going to have a decent each-way but we’ve lost a runner, and we have only two places left, so I’m calculating down a bit. And my own multiples horse from the meeting is Wine ‘N Dine (8.20) in the Betdaq The Betting Exchange handicap. Wind Flow should set a pace which will put milers Blacktoft and United Nations out of it over this 12 furlongs; Boo hasn’t won for three years and I don’t fancy lending my dough to a 7lb-claimer on Spirit Of Adjusa, who usually hits a flat spot in his races. Wine and dine? Just invite me to Cheltenham.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 10pts MADISON BELLE and BET 10pts win (banker) MY SWEET GEORGIA (2.40 Southwell) BET 3pts win and 2pts place IRON MAN (3.50 Ludlow) BET 1pt win and 1pt place BALLINGADDY (4.20 Ludlow) BET 10pts win (banker) VERACITY (4.45 Nad Al Sheba) BET 1pt win and 1pt place CALCULATING (7.50 Wolverhampton) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble My Sweet Georgia (2.40 Southwell), Veracity (4.45 Nad Al Sheba) and Wine ‘N Dine (8.20 Wolverhampton)
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Ireland's Eye on Wednesday

Wednesday 25 February

IRELAND'S EYE

On a quiet day for us yesterday Gentle George (11/4-5/2) just went down to a stablemate in the hunter chase in Leicester and in the process scupper our DAQ treble which included short priced winners Song Of Songs and Lightning Strike.

Our main focus of attention today will be at the unique Northern Ireland venue of Downpatrick while we also have a couple of prospective winners at Folkestone and Bangor.

An interesting opener on the card in Folkestone features a couple of interesting types in the once raced 7yo Lord Tomnoddy from the David Pipe establishment and the good bumper winner The Old Pretender from Carl Llewellyn yard. The former ran a ‘blinder’ to chase home the promising Chariot Charger on his debut over a furlong less in Taunton over a month ago and just gets the nod from The Old Pretender who admittedly will be suited by the better ground but the 6yo has shown signs that he may not be entirely straightforward.

The former Pierce hurdle winner Barker jumped soundly when finishing runner up on his chase debut last year but subsequent efforts were far from inspiring. However he has since joined Willie Mullins and he could be worth siding with in the 4-15 in Downpatrick – a 2m 2 1/2f novice chase where Ruby Walsh gets the leg up. The obvious danger is the penalised Tramore chase winner The Fonze who will be suited by the trip.

Ian Ferguson and champion point rider Derek O’Connor are a combination to be feared in points and they can supply the answer to the 2m 5 1/2f hunter chase in Downpatrick at 4-45 with the useful pointer Bally Wall. The six year old has not jumped regulation fences to date but he holds leading prospects on his sharing of the spoils with subsequent hunter chase winner Lydon House on penultimate start and he only just went down to the vastly more experienced ex chaser Dublin Hunter in Loughanmore on final run last November. He should be capable of picking off the all the way course and distance victor Chief Oscar whilst the drying ground brings David Christies Royal Ranger into the equation.

The Stowaway 5yo Timeshift scored easily on English point debut a month ago but the former Roger McGrath trained gelding had shown fine form ‘between the flags’ in Ireland and indeed ran a fine second to the subsequent dual bumper winner Red Harbour in Clonakilty on his second start. Now in the care of Mike Hammond he can supply the answer to the concluding 2m 1f bumper in Bangor under the promising 3lb claimer Aidan Coleman. Edge Of Town looks the main danger.

ADVICE
4pt win LORD TOMNODDY 2-10 Folkestone
2pt win (saver) THE OLD PRETENDER 2-10 Folkestone
lay to win 5pts AN INNOCENT MAN 2-15 Downpatrick
6pt win (nap) BALLY WALL 4-45 Downpatrick
5pt win BARKER 4-15 Downpatrick
2pt win (saver) THE FONZE 4-15 Downpatrick
4pt win TIMESHIFT 5-20 Bangor
2pt win (saver) EDGE OF TOWN 5-20 Bangor
1pt treble DAQ MULTIPLES Lord Tomnoddy, Razor Royale and Itsallaracket

 

DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 25 February SIX WINS IN ONE DAY: Daqman landed six winning bets yesterday, including Wyeth (won 3-1), Wotashirtful (won 13-8) and Chief Dan George (won 11-10), with Wyeth a principal in his Daq Multiples. 50 UP FOR FEBRUARY: He’s scored 11 wins in the last three days to bring his total for the month to 53. LOOK OUT AT CHELTENHAM: The man who tipped 1,000 winners is stepping up a gear for Cheltenham, with four out of his last five bankers up and eight of his last 11 lays. BETDAQ NATIONAL: Today he has the stats that others have forgotten on the Betdaq-sponsored Kent National at Folkestone. It’s a five-hour journey over 284 miles from Barnstaple in Devon and no wonder the current trainers’ tables don’t show the name of Victor Dartnall in the returns for Folkestone. Why swap one sea breeze for another? But today there’s the lure of a big Betdaq prize and my own stats from last century were confirmed by Victor this morning as he set out on the long road to the Kent National. “Years and years ago, I got three winners at Folkestone from four runners. “My stable was shut down around Christmas because of a virus. But at last we got one to run to its mark when Richards Sundance put in a good performance at Fontwell on Sunday to finish third to a Paul Nicholls’ hot pot.” Victor’s Betdaq Kent National runner is Russian Trigger (4.10), whose breeding alone – by Double Trigger out of a Bustino mare – suggests grit and stamina, that today’s 31-furlong marathon is right up his street. ”He’s a big staying type, inexperienced but a strong horse who needs a galloping track and should carry the weight. I hope I’m not travelling back with nothing.” I’ve taken 10.0 on the Daq this morning but I’ll probably get a much bigger trade in running, as Russian Trigger does nothing in a hurry. But I won’t need to pay that 1% in running on the Betdaq handicap hurdle of that name, as Pocketwood (3.40) goes with the pace and I already have a tasty 11.5 on the Daq this morning. Pocketwood is down in class from a decent effort at Ascot last time out when fourth in a big field to Cruchain. Victor Dartnall is in this one, too, and I’ll have to have a pound on his Businessmoney Jake to save my blushes if I’ve got ‘the wrong one’ but I am more worried about another long-distance traveler, Quattrocento, from the Bowen yard the other side of Welsh Wales. This one has made a hash of his chasing career but returns over the sticks here off a mark around a stone less. It’s Bowen’s only runner. I’ve sneaked in my soccer bets – Derby County and Barcelona – in the Betdaq football-tagged maidens but, as you would, I avoided the ‘Gunner’ (Rear or otherwise) in the opener, and had an each-way bet at 6.6 this morning on The Dodger Carey (2.10). Lord Tomnoddy and The Old Pretender have shown backable ability, and Dorothy’s Friend would have had these for breakfast a few years ago, but I shall back ‘Dodger’, a 3m point winner, now he is stepped up in trip over hurdles. Serious punts don’t come easy today but I am tempted by Gold Reef (3.20) at Bangor: Alan King is 44% in novice hurdles on the track and this is his only runner of the day. The trainer blames heavy going for defeat by Pelican Point and the boot is on the other foot today, with the penalized heavy-ground horse at a disadvantage on the drier surface. Oscar Jack (4.50) has also got his ground now after struggling in a bog at Warwick a month ago, and Venetia Williams is two wins from two runners in this race. Catalan Bay (5.00 Wolverhampton) looks an interesting AW recruit from Australia; he ran well enough on his UK debut at Lingfield and is now stepped up to a trip he needs. Caprio has failed before beyond 6f; Guildenstern is too high in the handicap; and I won’t have the older horses when there is one aged four or five just coming to hand. As well as the Betdaq Kent marathon, there’s a second Grand National today – the Ulster - and I’m taking Cleni Boy (3.45 Downpatrick) to return to form on the better ground.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win and 2pts place THE DODGER CAREY (2.10 Folkestone) BET 6pts win (nap) GOLD REEF (3.20 Bangor) BET 2pts win and 2pts place POCKETWOOD, and 1pt win and 1pt place QUATTROCENTO (3.40 Folkestone) BET 1pt win and 1pt place CLENI BOY (3.45 Downpatrick) BET 2pts win and 2pts place RUSSIAN TRIGGER (4.10 Folkestone) BET 4pts win OSCAR JACK (4.50 Bangor) BET 6pts win CATALAN BAY (5.00 Wolverhampton)
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