Betdaq Extra

DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 27 January DAQMAN has two strong bets today from Southwell and Folkestone and joins in the fun of Daq Multiples. But, in his column about improving horses and the search for value, he finds a 33-1 shot with bookmakers offered at a staggering 345.0 on Betdaq and one at 25-1 trading 40.0. They are part of his hunt for horses to follow that concentrates on those being overlooked by the general betting public. He also finds a 14.0 each-way Betdaq bet for today in the opening race at Folkestone. Bill down the betting shop is itching to take some Cheltenham prices now; that’s why the bookies advertise them. They want you on the exposed horses at no value. Binocular, Denman, Master Minded. But forget them until the day; then decide whether you are prepared for a ‘mortgage job.’ I’ll give you a different list: Muirhead, Notre Pere, Santas Son. In the long run, returns from horses like these will make Bill his fortune, not the exposed horses. They are massive improvers overlooked by the crowd, and Bill is better off spending his fiver on them than taking 2-5 a Cheltenham hot-pot. It’s what I look for in the ante-post lists: evidence that improvers are being overlooked. Such horses will be your value bets of the future. Decide which races best suit them, decide what prices they should be and back them accordingly. I was on Sublimity and Montys Pass before they won the Champion Hurdle and the Grand National at early odds of 50-1 and 40-1 respectively and, if you look, you might just find similar possibilities for 2009. I’m putting up my three for the following reasons: Muirhead has had only five hurdle races, but has improved significantly, stepping up from 10 lengths behind Catch Me to less than seven behind Sublimity and finally, on Sunday, less than a length behind Brave Inca, and well ahead of Sublimity, in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He’s only six. He’s a nugget from the seam of gold called improvers. Yet he’s 41.0 on Betdaq this morning for the Champion Hurdle, proof that his climb up the ladder is being virtually ignored because the public think that particular race is already won by Binocular. Santas Son is now with the right trainer, put to the right trip. In response, he stormed 19 lengths clear in the Castleford (often a useful guide) at Wetherby. What do you think of that? Well, he was 345.0 this morning on Betdaq for the Champion Chase (though as low as 33-1 with the Tote): his improvement is being ignored because the Betdaq betting public think that particular race is already won by Master Minded. Notre Pere is only eight but has already placed in the Irish National and won the Welsh equivalent: he’s 25-1 for Aintree with some bookmakers but 40.0 on Betdaq. Value, value, value. If only we could find it every day but everyday racing is starved of improvers: horses are running over and over again. In hope or desperation. And what we call sport. Take 15-year-old Star Glow and 13-year-old Follow The Flow (3.20) at Folkestone. Again, like my ante-post advice on the favourites above, I’m not saying they won’t win: I’m saying that, in the long run, you will lose, lose, lose, if you follow them. The stats for the Folkestone race say a seven-year-old (three out of four) is likely to win; and your own common sense says that anything over the age of 10 will struggle to win. The stats and your commonsense also tell you that horses carrying more than 11st 4lb on heavy ground are severely penalised unless they have shown a touch of class. This is a level-5 race and our use of the word ‘class’ has to be qualified indeed. I would also delete the older horses from the 4.20: horses aged six and seven have won the last four renewals and, again, big weights have not been carried to victory more than once in a decade. This time, I think we can bet, with Gary Moore having a young horse in prime position mid-handicap: Celtic Spirit. There’s ballyhoo about the return of Den of Inquity (1.50) but I’ll sit and watch him after nearly two years off; the same trainer’s The Old Pretender – runs 2.50 today – came back, hyped up from a solid bumper career, but was beaten favourite on this course on the first day of December. The Dodger Carey, who also goes well after a break, already has hurdles form in the book and will stay every yard on the heavy, yet he is 14.0. I’m putting Assail (3.40), who can benefit from his experience, at Southwell with Celtic Spirit and a couple of Paul Nicholls’ hot-pots at Taunton to give me a bit of fun with Daq Multiples but it’s really a day to forget and look forward to those improvers in the better meetings to come.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place THE DODGER CAREY (1.50 Folkestone) BET 6pts win ASSAIL (3.40 Southwell) BET 6pts win CELTIC SPIRIT (4.20 Folkestone) DAQ MULTIPLES: Assail and Celtic Spirit with Qozak (1.30 Taunton) and Inchidaly Rock (2.30 Taunton), charged to the account as 1pt win trebles.
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Ireland's Eye - Tuesday

Tuesday 27 January

IRELAND'S EYE

It was a case of hitting the bar twice on Sunday where a couple of outstanding rides by Paul Townend and Ruby Walsh robbed us of success with Forpadytheplaster (15/8) and Major Sensation (7/1) but al least we got Jayo turned over in the Arkle chase though we did wind up with a deficit of 22 points.

There are several former ex Irish horses and former pointers strutting their stuff in Folkestone and Taunton today and there could be some value in considering a couple of these where the value is available. 

Indeed the yard could be in the winners enclosure in the second race a 2m 3f novice chase at 2-00 where Luxurix, an 8yo French bred can making a winning debut under Ruby Walsh at the probable expense of former point and hurdle winner Tamadot who does have the advantage of a run over fences having run a fine third behind Hennessy last time. However the trip could be more in favour of the selection and he just gets the nod.

Meanwhile at Folkestone the 2-20, a 2m 5f maiden hurdle there are three former pointers in Knackarron (dual winner 'between flags in England subsequently), Tolede and Teamgeist who all have to overcome somewhat of a layoff, particularly the last two named. Indeed we will buck the trend and give the vote to the former easy Lemonfield winner from 2006 Tolede who is coming back after a near three year absence but this may not pose as big a stumbling block as first apparent as he comes from the inform Nicky Henderson yard. Teamgeist from another 'hot' yard – Charlie Mann could pose the main threat as he has shown a fair level of form under Rules to date and he could be best when caught fresh.

It could be a good day for the Nicholls team in Taunton and they could land a four timer (Inchidaly Rock looks unopposable in 2-30) with the once Aldertune who may account for the somewhat disappointing and well touted Nicky Henderson representative Larks Lad and the Buckler runner Dontsayathing in the closing bumper at 4-00. The selection ran well when taking a fair fourth behind a decent stablemate in Wincanton on debut and he can see off Dontsayathing under Ruby Walsh.

Ballinderry Park looked a fair performer when making all to land his point on sole start in Farmacaffley and though he has been slow to come to hand so far for the Charlie Mann yard he has shown better form when beaten some way behind a couple of decent performers in Karabak and Mad Max on last couple of runs. However the 2m 1 1/2f trip in the handicap hurdle may not prove ideal and though he has the invaluable assistance of Noel Fehily he is just passed over in favour of decent flat racer Celtic Spirit from the George Moore yard with Jamie Moore in the plate as the selection is also getting 4lbs from the Mann runner.

ADVICE
LUXURIX - 5pts win saver 2pts win Tamadot 2-00 Taunton
TOLEDE – 4pts win saver 3pts win Teamgeist 2-20 Folkestone
ALDERTUNE – 4pts win saver 2pts win Dontsayathing 4-00 Taunton
CELTIC SPIRIT – 4pts win saver 3pts win Ballinderry Park 4-20 Folkestone

 




 

DAQMAN on MONDAY

Monday 26 January DAQMAN THE BRAVE: Daqman cut out the blarney and gave three solid reasons why Brave Inca (won 11-4) would be Ireland’s Champion Hurdler yesterday; he named Muirhead (2nd 7-2) as the danger for a big-event one-two. 6-1 WINNER: He made it two top races out of two at Leopardstown with the Foxrock winner, Conem (won 6-1). 100 POINTS IN TWO DAYS: His Irish success completed a weekend of nearly 100 points profit with more big winners on Saturday at 9-2, 7-2, 3-1 and 11-4. 10 DAYS PROFIT OUT OF 14: He’s had only four losing days in the last 14 (one break-even) and is close to his 11th century of wins with 93 in 37 days. After the champagne of two golden days at Cheltenham and Leopardstown, we’re back to small beer, sitting in the rain, panhandling for the odd nugget. Except that most Betdaq punters are sitting in the warm glow of their PCs (in my case, a Mac) and some of them, just some, may have been looking forward to Kempton and Ludlow today. You see, it’s all in your personal betting records. If you don’t keep such records, start now. They are invaluable. You need to know where (the venue), and in which kind of race (big field, small field, handicap, Classic), with what stables and with what type of bet, you get the best returns. If you are a footballer, do you sign up for the cricket club? If you play a mean game of darts, do you go down the snooker room and put your money on the pool table? If you are dealt 14, do you double your stake, hoping for a seven? Only mugs play in the wrong game.. So list your bets by track, type of race, trainer and jockey, and then adjust the stake according to your ‘league’ tables. For instance, I’m a mug at Musselburgh (you probably noticed); I can’t ‘suss’ David Elsworth (can you?); and I know that I am at my best in quality races, Class 3 and higher. They used to be ranked A,B,C, and the old pro Paul Major used to say: ‘Don’t bet below Cee level; you’ll be drowning your losses!’ I bet at least 30 times the stake at Ascot and Cheltenham than I would bet at Hexham or Perth. Today’s meetings, Ludlow and Kempton, are halfway down my list, above Leicester and Nottingham, but below Exeter and Newcastle. My stake may well be raised by Nicholls, King or Henderson at Kempton, much less so for Hobbs and Venetia Williams; that this corresponds with their own returns at Kempton is a confirmation. Sometimes, even at the lowest venue (on your list) there is a ‘nugget’: some glint of gold, preferably that others may not have seen. But, with your lists to guide you, you will know not to be tempted to a maximum-stakes bet by seeming ‘good things’ at the ‘wrong’ venue for you; it may be fools’ gold you see. There are two Class-3 races at Ludlow but one is an amateur; now betting on amateurs may be your game but has a low rating on my lists: Oliver Greenall is one of the best on show here and he should get a good run from Potts Of Magic (2.55), placed 16 times from 23 completed starts but, as I write, the place offers are not good. The other Class 3 is more interesting because Rory Boy (4.00) has twice been aimed at a grade-one track (Cheltenham), including in a Grade-2 event. Now that’s getting close to the champagne. Rory Boy didn’t draw any corks at Cheltenham but, on lesser tracks, recorded form-figures of 2122 and, because his stable has been out of form, is trading 12.0 on the Daq as I write. However, Nigel Twiston-Davies has had six horses placed out of the last 11 to have completed the course, and Rory Boy is well in for his first handicap. The price encourages my interest. Kempton musters three Class-3 races, all smallish fields, but the novices’ chase (2.05) is the proverbial ‘cracker’ with Lodge Lane, unbeaten outside Cheltenham, on show against the progressive Au Courant. Where Kempton figures in your success story I don’t know, but it is a classy track in the scheme of things compared with the likes of Exeter, Leicester and Taunton, though I heard Mick Fitzgerald the other day say it’s “easier” now. Why do I mention Exeter, Leicester and Taunton? Well, be warned that those are the tracks where the three main protagonists, Au Courant, It’s A Legend and Lodge Lane have won their chases. None has form at a higher venue; only Nicky Henderson’s Au Courant has chase form outside novice class; and Lodge Lane’s trainer is coming back with his first runner in five weeks after a poor stable run. So, looking at what was on offer, I was more inclined to take the 2.78 a place Au Courant than the 1.95 a win Lodge Lane, and Au Courant was 6.6 the win in what seemed a three-horse race. Then I read a broad hint from Henderson that his other runner, Sir Jimmy Shand, might be the one, was certainly sharper now. I’ve ended up split stakes on Henderson. And I think Betdaq backers were right to buy up Hendersons’s Pepsyrock (3.15) this morning and push him to the head of the market; he’s down in class and down in weight, which is usually a betting combination. The first two races seem to be head-to-heads: Henderson versus Nicholls. But my man in the long grass assures me that Hebridean is making us a price for Ainama (1.30); at a difference of 11lb, I want a good price, but I ain’t gonna get one. I’ll pass on the single, but I’ll put him in for a bit of double-your-money leverage in Daq Multiples. Is it me, or does AW get trickier at this time of year? I’ll just have a tickle on ‘Spenny.’ The said Jamie Spencer let me down yesterday, though that’s a bit unfair: Aeroplane has to be left to the last few strides; he needs spot-on guidance if he is to touch down first and it didn’t go to plan. Today Spencer could make all he difference in the claimer: hot-pot Gone Hunting saw off Simple Rhythm when that one was ridden by one, Louis-Philippe Beuzelin, on this course in September. Louis-Philippe was the last king to rule France before the Revolution; he is also a lightweight claimer who has had only nine winners in five seasons. Under Spencer, I think Simple Rhythm (2.30) can get closer to Gone Hunting now; at 19.5 this morning, I’ll stick my neck out each way. Though I guess there was no each way with Madame Guillotine. I think it was all ‘on the nod.’
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win on each AU COURANT and SIR JIMMY SHAND (2.05 Kempton) BET 1pt win and place SIMPLE RHYTHM (2.30 Wolverhampton) BET 3pts win PEPSYROCK (3.15 Kempton) BET 2pts win and place RORY BOY (4.00 Ludlow) DAQ MULTIPLES: Ainama (1.30 Kempton) and Rory Boy, charged to the account as a 1pt win double.
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Ireland's Eye - Sunday

Sunday 25 January

IRELANDS EYE

All our birthdays came at once day yesterday with only the fall of On Raglan Road stopping us from completing a clean sweep over 4 meetings.

We started the ball rolling with Telenor (11-2-9/2) obliging in Navan and we had a double whammy with Punchestowns getting turned over by our selection Big Bucks (7/2) in Cheltenham. Just prior to that Big Fella Thanks (11/2-9/2) came home clear of his field in Doncaster and finally former pointer Benbane Head (4-11/4) landed the bumper in Uttoxeter to give us a fine 80 point profit on the day and an overall advantage of 168 points during January to date.

We will concentrate exclusively on Leopardstown today on Irish Champion Hurdle day and though we have a margin preference for Sublimity over Muirhead here we hopefully will get more profit from the supporting card.

The opening 1-20 maiden hurdle over 2m offers the hitherto disappointing Time Electric a good opportunity to open his account over hurdles on the back of a much improved effort when chasing home Zaarito in Punchestown last time. However we will take him on with the former good Lingstown point winner One To Many who shaped with plenty of promise on his Park debut despite racing somewhat freely. Though the 6yo win came on good ground his breeding would indicate that he can handle underfoot conditions and he looks to have the pace to go close here under Davy Russell for the Charlie Swan yard.

Jayo looks likely to start favourite in the Arkle chase over 2m 1f at 1-50 but again we will take on the jolly and the nod goes to the progressive Forpadytheplasterer for the Tommy Cooper/Barry Geraghty combination who can see off the main danger Follow The Plan who has done absolutely nothing wrong to date over the major obstacles and will go close to landing his second Grade 1 chase.

The 2m 3f hc chase looks a fascinating contest and Paddy Power seventh Callherwhatulike looks sure to have her followers dropped back in trip on a course where she finished a fine third to subsequent Welsh Grand National winner Notre Pere last year. As always in a handicap one has to looor a likely bottom weight on the demanding ground and slight preference here is for Arthur Moores apparent second string Major Sensation under David Casey off 9-10 who showed signs of a return to form last time.

Finally at 3-25 we will side with the in form Dessie Hughes team with their admittedly somewhat inconsistent Western Charmer in this 2m 4f Grade 2 novice hurdle following his staying on second to the talented Mikael D'Haguenet with Paddy Flood in the plate. Corskeagh Royale and the penalised Weapon's Amnesty will have their supporters but the place bet could lie with the improving mare Dunroe Lady for the Adrian Sexton yard.

ADVICE
ONE TO MANY – 4pts win saver 2pts win Time Electric 1-20 Leopardstown
FORPADYTHEPLASTERER – 5pts win saver 2pts win Follow The Flow 1-50 Leopardstown
JAYO – lay to lose 6pts 1-50 Leopardstown
MAJOR SENSATION – 3pts win saver 2pts win Callherwhatulike 2-20 Leopardstown
WESTERN CHARMER – 5pts win Dunroe Lady 2pt place 3-25 Leopardstown

 




 

DAQMAN on SUNDAY

Sunday 25 January QUALITY DAQMAN: when the racing is top class, Daqman is your quality-street kid. SIX WINNING BETS: He produced six winning bets yesterday in the big races at Cheltenham and Doncaster, including Big Fella Thanks (won 9-2), Big Bucks (won 7-2) and Ping Pong Sivola (won 3-1). VALUE BANKER WINS: His maximum-stakes banker, Nacarat (won 11-4), was also combined with Ping Pong Siviola to make a profit of his Daq Multiples. LAY DOWN: His only lay, Halcon Genelardais, was beaten favourite despite a great ride by ‘Choc’ Thornton. That was winning lay number 180 in a 77% successful run. 162 POINTS UP: Such is his consistency that Daqman is 162 points up this month, and has 91 winning bets from the last 36 days. Brave Inca can hex the Indian sign over today’s Irish Champion Hurdle field. There are three good reasons why I think the 2006 winner can ‘do a Hardy Eustace’ and recapture the crown today. Hardy Eustace put the stats to the sword when he won as a 10-year-old in 2007, seemingly the exception to the rule that the single-figure-age group always win. But the young pretenders have fallen by the wayside again and five of today’s field are aged 9 to 12 with ‘Eustace’ himself back for a fourth champion hurdle (he won two at Cheltenham). Brave Inca, placed first or second in all three attempts at today’s title, and said by the stable to be right back to his best, was beaten for speed by Sublimity in the December Festival Hurdle but that was on yielding ground off an unsuitably slow pace and today’s outside track and deep terrain will suit Brave Inca (2.50 Leopardstown) on only his third run back. That’s one of my three good reasons: Brave Inca’s form on his third run back each season is 11211. His form on officially heavy ground since his debut reads 1211. And his performances at today’s venue configure as 12211123. Add the dash of Ruby Walsh, brought in by Colm Murphy, and you have a recipe for repeat success. Muirhead could be that missing young pretender: he is gradually getting into the act and is still half the age of Hardy Eustace; this is only his sixth hurdle race. If there is no real value to be had in the main event, then just look at the Foxrock! Eight horses within three-and-a-half-points of each other at 6-1 the field. The words ‘open’ and ‘race’ spring to mind. Central House hasn’t won for two years and not since a horse of the calibre of Florida Pearl has his weight been carried to win this, nor does any 11-or-12-year-old figure in the list of winners. If we then delete Kings Advocate for his near-two-year absence, surely we have taken the book into underround. Not so. We have more whittling down to do: Publican and Major Sensation (out of the handicap) haven’t won a chase at all. Major Sensation – winner of a huge hurdles prize last March, and slowly gaining in chasing experience – was 12 lengths or so behind stablemate Back On The Road at the end of December but is nigh on a stone better off at the weights; what rules him out for me, though, are his form figures on soft-heavy ground: 0000. Half the field has gone and, of the remaining half-dozen, you have to consider Conem (2.20 Leopardstown); he was overfaced last time out in the Paddy Power and this is more like it; I recall his tenacious victory at Fairyhouse in November with Central House fifth. Callherwhatulike ran better than Conem in the Paddy Power – but that was 3m - and it was no disgrace to be beaten by Notre Pere at the December Festival meeting at Leopardstown. She drops back in trip but her stamina will be useful at the business end here. The Arkle suffers from a small field, and the Stillorgan the reverse. I’ll just have a euro on the novice hurdle. While they were debating whether Western Charmer can beat Corskeagh Royale again, and whether either can beat Weapon’s Amnesty – all at short prices -  I took 16.0 each way Baron D’El (3.25) on Betdaq this morning. Yes, he’s a maiden but he’s taken on potential stars: Hurricane Fly on today’s course (holds Oscar Dan Dan) and Dee Ee Williams at Ascot, staying on well each time: today’s bog over an extra half-mile might be the leveller he needs. I’ll be happy with a place. Brackenmoss (2.35 Ayr), back to his best distance, hasn’t really got it in the book yet but the 10lb he receives from the top two, including James Reveley’s allowance, could be an equaliser. At Wolverhampton, Aeroplane (5.00) returns to the right trip, with the weights in his favour and with Jamie Spencer riding at his best at this time. Buy a Betdaq ticket for the ride.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 3pts win and place BRACKENMOSS (2.35 Ayr) BET 6pts win BRAVE INCA, 2pts win MUIRHEAD (2.50 Leopardstown) BET 2pts win on each CALLERHERWHATULIKE and CONEM (2.20 Leopardstown) BET 1pt win and place BARON D’EL (3.25 Leopardstown) BET 6pts win AEROPLANE (5.00 Wolverhampton)
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Ireland's Eye - Saturday

Saturday 24 January

IRELANDS EYE

We did not have fortune on our side yesterday with All For The Cause (5-4/1) coming down when travelling well in Doncaster and our saver Haakaiser (14/1) getting nailed near the 'lollypop' in the staying handicap chase in Fairyhouse – though we did get back a little on the place market. However we did get Watson Lake turned over but it still left a deficit of 24pts on the day.

Saturday gives us a decent chance to buck the present trend and though the Irish action looks somewhat unappetizing with four likely odds on shots during the afternoon our only win bet on the card will be in the 2-45 a 2m 7m maiden hurdle – something of a rarity and stamina will be order of the day.

Jim Dreapers yard are in fine form and his main representative here is the recent Down Royal runner up Telenor and the Andrew Lynch ridden six year old looks ideally suited by this step up in trip. A possible danger lies in the Philip Fenton trained Lagganstown who is another who could well show improvement for this particular test.
 
If former pointer On Raglan Road is to justify his inclusion in my 10 TO FOLLOW he will have to redeem his reputation in the Grade 2 3m ½ novice hurdle in Doncaster at 2-50. Though it was disappointing to see him turned over by one of todays rivals Junior over 2m 4f in Newbury last time this fellow is begging for a trip and todays test should give him the ideal test and give the in form Howard Johnson/Denis O'Regan combination yet another winner.
 
Another ex decent point winner Big Fella Thanks is another who will be suited by a stamina test and though the Paul Barber/Harry Findlay owned 7yo has somewhat under achieved to date but the Listed 3m handicap chase in Doncaster at 3-25 could see him gain an overdue success over the major obstacles off what looks a fair mark under Christian Williams.
 
The 3-45 Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle looks a fascinating contest and World Hurdle favourite Punchestowns puts his unbeaten record on the line in this 3m hurdle. Though the Nicky Henderson 6yo is clearly an exciting prospect he faces a tough task here to give 8lbs to Paul Nicholls ex chaser Big Bucks and at the available odds the Ruby Walsh ridden 6yo is just given the vote.
 
Dick Lalor and daughter Liz produced an interesting sort in Benbane Head, a 5yo son of Giant's Causeway and a first winner in Irish points for that sire in an Affane maiden last November and he delivered in style, despite making a couple of mistakes. The runner up there has bolted in the meanwhile and now in the care of Martin Keighley this fellow can make a winning impression under Warren Marston in the concluding 2m bumper in Uttoxeter at 4-05.
 
ADVICE
TELENOR 4pts – saver Lagganstown 2pt win 2-45 Navan
ON RAGLAN ROAD – 8pts win 2-50 Doncaster
BIG BUCKS – 5pts win 3-45 Cheltenham
BIG FELLA THANKS – 4pts win 3-25 Doncaster
PUNCHESTOWNS – lay to lose 6pts 3-45 Cheltenham
BENBANE HEAD – 6pts win 4-05 Uttoxeter

 




 

DAQMAN on SATURDAY

Saturday 24 January DAQMAN is all out for value today at the big meetings of Cheltenham and Doncaster    He decides between the two best-touted lays of the day, Battlecry and Halcon Genelardais, arguing that one of them has drifted to a price that backers can’t ignore.   He spots a possible flaw in the form book about hot-pot Punchestowns at Cheltenham. And there’s a banker at Doncaster, plus a 13.0 gamble on the big race there. The ‘mock exams’ for Cheltenham today may only serve to increase the gap between the head boys, Henderson and Nicholls, and the rest of the class, who will be forced to drop their targets or merely run for fun when they take their finals in March. Two months ago, Punchestowns was a novice who had wins over 118 and 119 rated horses. Today Nicky Henderson’s World Hurdle favourite is running off 171 after going 11 lengths clear of an Ascot field which included Blazing Bailey, Petitfour and Lough Derg. Cheltenham brings out the best in Lough Derg but Punchestowns has won there, too, and the main danger is obviously Paul Nicholls’ Big Bucks. But how big a threat? Nicholls says that Big Bucks will have to win today, getting 8lb. I say that he may be around 17lb ahead of Punchestowns in this Cleeve Hurdle, using a line through Don’t Push It and Ballydub. After Ballydub had been beaten by Punchestowns at Cheltenham, he won a Pertemps qualifier with Don’t Push It a long way back. Big Bucks beat Don’t Push It less than two lengths earlier this month but was giving a stack of weight. In fact, Fair Along is closer to Big Bucks on a line through Don’t Push It but, a delight though his recent revival has been, he is a better horse on better ground. Relative form which I rely on here can be misleading, particularly when animals are on the upgrade but 4.6 Big Bucks as against 2.04 Punchestowns this morning tells me quite clearly: back Big Bucks, save on Punchestowns. Ping Pong Sivola (1.30) is perfectly placed in the handicap to open our account at Cheltenham: no horse has carried more than 11st 4lb to victory in this on soft-heavy ground and he gets more than a stone from the favourite, Tricky Trickster. After winning at Wincanton, ‘Ping Pong’ ran over the wrong trip at Leicester and in the wrong ground at Huntingdon; in between, he was the ‘moral’ when beaten only a length giving 19lb at Taunton. Kilcrea Asla’s performance in this will help you decide whether to back Akilak (2.05), who was about a stone better when they met at Newcastle last month. Howard Johnson’s team is hot right now and Akilak had earlier run a fine second on heavy ground, giving kilos galore to the winner. Stan has shot up the handicap and needs a sounder surface, while it’s a bit far for Moon Over Miami and Pablo Du Charmil so, if Turko can bounce back, that one and Private Be are the dangers. But again the stats say that on this ground a light weight will win: only once in recent history has a horse carried more than 10st 9lb on soft-heavy. That confirms my faith in Akilak. Meanwhile, however, Battlecry is being pushed out in the betting because the pundits are knocking his stable’s form: he could get to the stage where he is value for a place (only twice out of the first four when completing the course in a 21-race career). Nacarat (2.15 Doncaster) was having his first run back when beaten by Private Be at Exeter, and his second to Natal last season puts him in the frame today, particularly on the soft. A.P. is an interesting booking. McCoy has a great chance of cleaning up this Doncaster card: he has Chomba Womba (1.05) and Artists’s Moon (4.00) for Henderson and On Raglan Road for Howard Johnson (2.50). Doncaster’s big handicap has cut up badly on the worsening ground and, again, a light weight will get through it better than most: Venetia Williams clearly holds Flying Enterprise (3.25) in high regard, judging by his past entries and this could be the heavy-ground winner’s opportunity to win by default: 13.0 on Betdaq, thankyou. Ironically Sam Thomas’s riding rival at Ditcheat, Christian Williams, on Big Fella Thanks, may be his biggest worry. Lay of the day is back at Cheltenham: Halcon Genelardais (2.35) is a long-distance runner who needs a galloping track.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 3pts win and place PING PONG SIVOLA (1.30 Cheltenham) BET 3pts win and 1pt place AKILAK, 1pt win and 3pts place BATTLECRY (2.05 Cheltenham) BANKER 10pts win NACARAT (2.15 Doncaster) LAY to win 10pts HALCON GENELARDAIS (2.35 Cheltenham) BET 2pts win and place FLYING ENTERPRISE, and 1pt saver BIG FELLA THANKS (3.25 Doncaster) BET 5pts win on each BIG BUCKS and PUNCHESTOWNS (3.45 Cheltenham) DAQ MULTIPLES: Flying Enterprise, Nacarat and Pong Pong Sivola with Chomba Womba (2.05 Doncaster) and On Raglan Road (2.50 Doncaster), charged to the account as 1pt win doubles
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Alan McInally's FA Cup Weekend Preview

With so many interesting fixtures in the 4th Round of the FA Cup this weekend we'll again shelve our regular three picks in favour of a spread of trades on the "Daq", in the hope of keeping our noses in front.

I'm a layer of my old side Aston Villa away at Doncaster for starters at 1.76 on Betdaq.  We've made good money this season being with Martin O'Neill's men but I think this is a great game in which to take them on.  Villa have been lucky lately and in Rovers they face a side in decent nick and unbeaten in their last five.  With no Ashley Young this could get very tight for the away side.

Another top flight side I want to be against are Hull.  Phil Brown's team are in the middle of a nightmare at the moment with five defeats on the bounce in the league.  When confidence is low it really is irrelevant who the opponents are and in Millwall, Hull face a team going in the right direction under the leadership of the shrewd Kenny Jackett.  Lay the home side at 1.75.

Burnley bashed Spurs on Wednesday night and if they can overcome the heartache of missing out on Wembley, Owen Coyle's men have every chance of putting the heat on another Premier League side in West Bromwich Albion.  The Baggies are in form but their relegation fight is a far bigger priority than the Cup and if Burnley can shrug off the fatigue then a shock is strong possibility.  I prefer the extra security that being a layer on the "Daq" gives us so take on West Brom at 1.81.

We,ve got to be backer of someone over the weekend and that team is Wolves who host a Middlesbrough side who don't know where or when their next victory will arrive.  Mick McCarthy has his men on a relentless march into the top flight and I can't see Boro casusing them too many problems away from the sanctuary of the Riverside.  2.54 is a cracking price about a home win.

Multiple players on Betdaq can also help themselves to a double that will leave me shocked and amazed if it does not cop.  Chelsea at 1.23 and Man Utd at 1.37 are my idea of genuine certainties against Championship strugglers Ipswich and depleted Spurs. 

 We'll get back to our normal service next weekend but in the meantime good luck with all of your trading action on Betdaq.

Ireland's Eye - Friday

Friday 23 January

IRELANDS EYE

Yesterday proved a bit of a struggle and though we had a few our selections placed including Indifference Curve (12-6/1) it was left to our saver Hurricane Carter (9/2-9/4) to keep the ship afloat and we wound up the day with a loss of 14 points.

Fairyhouse passed the inspection this morning and heavy ground looks assured at the Meath venue.

The main event on the card is the 2-05 Grade 2 chase over 2m 1f and here we ‘nail our colours’ to Liam Burkes stable star Thyne Again under Shay Barry. The eight year old travelled like a winner till fading in the latter stages behind Big Zeb and another of todays rivals Watson Lake in a Grade 1 in Leopardstown at Christmas. On this evidence he should not turn the tables on the last named but as his stable were not firing on all cylinders at that time he can be expected to show his true colours here and land the prize. Ted Walshs Southern Vic has not tasted success for some time but would rate a small investment for the minor money though the trip is arguably on the short side for the 10yo.

Martin Brassils Flag Point rates an interest in the 2m 4f hc hurdle at 3-15 in Fairyhouse under Ruby Walsh. Though the 7yo proved no match for Master N’Commander when taking the runner up berth in Tramore on final foray three weeks ago that represents fair form and he can land this from another relatively unexposed type in Francis Floods Folduf who has hinted at ability without reaching the frame.

 Former point winner All For The Cause has added a bumper and a couple of hurdles to his tally for the George Moore yard seemed to relish the drop back in trip over fences of late and indeed his jumping seems to be improving also. On the evidence of his final close third placing last time he should go close to landing the 3-40 hc chase under Barry Keniry off a low weight in the 2m 1/2f hc chase in Doncaster.

 A real slog looks on the cards in the 3m 1f hc chase and here we will go with a couple of point to pointers who have shown form in that discipline of late. Though John Stauntons Volcanic Rock has not really got involved in a hunter chase and a couple of opens recently and predominantly has posted his best form on better ground he nevertheless easily turned over the subsequent cross country chase winner and Foxhunter winner Drombeag in Roscommon last October on similar ground and off a low weight he could spring a surprise in this 3-45 event in Fairyhouse. Another to enter calculations is the relatively unexposed Mouse Morris trained Haakaiser who showed his aptitude for this ground with a near all the way success in the winners race over the testing Kilfeacle circuit last Sunday.

 Richard Phillips has yet to hit the high spots this term but a favourable mention is given to his former pointer Go All Out in the 4-10 in Donny – a 2m 3 ½ bumper. The six year old maiden pointer should have collected on his debut and was just touched off by subsequent fair Park scorer Mizen Point on final start ‘between the flags’ and at the forecast price would rate a bet for win and place.

ADVICE
THYNE AGAIN – 7pts win saver 1pt win 1pt place Southern Vic 2-05 Fairyhouse
WATSON LAKE – lay to lose 5pts 2-05 Fairyhouse
FLAG POINT – 4pts win saver 3pts win Folduf 3-15 Fairyhouse
ALL FOR THE CAUSE – 4pts win 3-40 Doncaster
VOLCANIC ROCK 3pts win 1pt place saver 2pts win 1pt place Haakaiser 3-45 Fairyhouse
GO ALL OUT – 2pt win – 1pt place 4-10 Doncaster

 




 

DAQMAN on FRIDAY

Friday 23 January DAQMAN dives in among a massive pool of 220 runners at the two jumps meetings in England Ireland today, hoping to come up with a pearl. He finds the hardest race is the smallest field and that the steamers are in the big-field handicap chases at Doncaster. Look out tomorrow and Saturday for analysis of the big trial meeting at Cheltenham from the man who gave 1,000 winning bets. Pick seven from 99! Don’t fancy that at Fairyhouse, then pick seven from 121 at Doncaster. That’s how hard it is over jumps today and the smallest field provides probably the trickiest race. Watson Lake is 2-1 up on Mansony the three times they’ve met but Thyne Again was new favourite this morning on Betdaq for the Grade-2 chase (2.05 Fairyhouse). Though he’s never beaten either, he is the theoretical improver with two and three years in hand on them but four-and-a-half lengths to make up on Watson Lake on recent form. It’s a war of attrition of the ‘nearly horses’ and the Watson Lake edge is that, if he gets his own way in front – he’s made all in small fields before – the others will find it hard to play catch-up on heavy ground. Otherwise, we’ll have to rely on Willie Mullins in the bumper again: that’s been the getting-out bet for many an Irish punter this season and the well-related Hammersmith (4.15), who is by a mud-loving stallion, should provide the same escape route today. They let Alan King’s newcomer Trenchant go in at 4-1 yesterday; I left it unbacked when I went off to the dentist’s; I was expecting about 9-4,  so the pain in my wallet was worse than the one in my jaw when I saw the SP. But, as the man said, it’s not the winners you miss that count; it’s the winners you back. King’s three-time Flat winner Samsons Son (1.55 Doncaster) was 7.2 when I looked at my Betdaq list this morning, with Fushe Jo and Highest Esteem pushed right out but Limbo King well supported on form, on McCoy’s riding and on James Fanshawe’s being two out of two on the course on recent years. Whereas King has them kicking first time, ‘Hen’ Knight is likely to take her time with the Queens Vase third, Ermine Sea (1.20), attracting no bites when floating out at 16.0 on Betdaq this morning. Shiwawa was also drifting like a dog – pun intended – but Lucy Wadham’s German winner El Dancer (five out of nine, in fact) was well backed to beat Quwetwo. I probably haven’t even named the winner yet, so this looks like a race to watch. Whatever happens to Quwetwo, the Graham Wylie and Howard Johnson team should slot in Silk Drum (3.05), one for your Daq Multiples. They’ve come big time for Fiftyfive Degrees (2.30), steaming away this morning in the novices’ handicap chase; Just Smudge still holds the call but it’s around 10-1 bar two. ‘Fiftyfive’ looks the value: Timmy Murphy is an excellent booking for a horse that’s had two pipe-openers over hurdles, returning from an absence since an impressive hunter-chase win over this trip. Front-runners like Tathmulen, Loch Duabh and King Mak should make the handicap chase a hot pace race. Coach Lane and Berings Express are consistent but something from the bottom of the handicap should benefit; that’s what Betdaq backers thought this morning when they made steady improver All For The Cause favourite (3.40), and they could be right.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pt wins and place SAMSONS SON, 2pts saver LIMBO KING (1.55 Doncaster) BET 3pts win and place FIFTYFIVE DEGREES (2.30 Doncaster) BET 4pts win WATSON LAKE (2.05 Fairyhouse) BET 2pts win and place ALL FOR THE CAUSE (3.40 Doncaster) DAQ MULTIPLES Fiftyfive Degrees with Hammersmith (4.15 Fairyhouse) and Silk Drum (3.05 Doncaster), charged to the account as 1pt win doubles and a treble.
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