Betdaq Extra

DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 31 January ANOTHER CENTURY: As Tony McCoy stands on the brink of 3,000 winners (he needs two), Daqman is on the verge of his 11th century of winning bets (he needs one). BETDAQ VALUE: Follow Daqman as, day after day, he finds huge morning value at big odds on Betdaq (15.5, 13.5, 13.0 and 9.0 today). 9-1 WINNER: After Thursday’s 10-1 gamble on James De Vassy (won 11-4), Daqman yesterday landed De Boitron (won 9-1), which he spotted when a morning trade on the Daq at 13.5. He also scored with Lady Vivien (won 15-8) and Woolston Ferry (won 4-6) to notch up winning bet number 99 in 42 days. Today, as ever, the man who bagged 1,000 winning bets, sticks his neck out as he tries to boost his total of 180 successful lays (77%). I always like to get involved in a ‘hype’ market: Wetherby steals some of the Saturday show with its own mini-RSA Chase, a cracking contest of five young bloods, already winners of 24 races. But the form says that the hype has got it all wrong, as usual; that red-hot favourite, Will Be Done, will be ‘done.’ He can’t win on the book. In today’s race, he has to find 16lb with Companero on their running over 3m at Carlisle in November; Will be Done has shot up the ratings since then with a hat-trick, but Companero hasn’t stood still. He’s won two more, both over 3m, whereas Will Be Done has been dropped back half-a-mile. Collateral lines can be misleading but, if it confirms the form, it is useful: I have two. The first line I’m using is through Ragador. Ragador came out 24 lengths behind Will Be Done at Wetherby in early December but 44 lengths behind Skippers Brig at Carlisle a fortnight later. Second line: the runner-up that day, Chief Dan George, had Nine De Sivola 96 lengths in arrear at Ayr six days ago, whereas in November Nine De Sivola got within two lengths of Will Be Done and three lengths of Companero. It’s not November, it’s January and these are progressive, or regressive, novice chasers; but I’m not talking about what’s going to win today; I’m talking about how you bet at the prices. And there’s no doubt in my mind that a front-runner over 3m at Wetherby with this form is not a bet; he’s a lay. Doncaster also steals some limelight from Sandown: it has not a mini-RSA but a mini-National; at least it’s a 4m marathon, and the same rules apply as in a National in that your horse must jump and stay. I’m eliminating stables out of form (like Ian Williams 1 win from 22 runners, Nigel Twiston Davies 1-20, Brendan Powell 0-24) but, with potentially five front-runners in the field - Lucky Nellerie, Gaora Lane, Tank Top, Hello Bud and Tora Bora - this one will be a war! The strong galloper Gaora Lane was value at 13.5 on Betdaq this morning: last year’s winner of this, King Harald, was just behind him in a much stronger contest at Cheltenham at the start of the month but what I spotted about the selection was on the same course in the autumn. Gaora Lane was in the van as usual but got a second wind and was coming again at the finish; he was definitely the ‘moral’, beaten little more than a length despite conceding nearly two stone. I’msingingtheblues (3.00) must be backed for the big pot at Donny, as Paul Nicholls concedes that this is a flat-track horse, and prizes like this mustn’t go begging; but, at this morning’s 13.0 on Betdaq, I will also be having an each-way bet on Three Mirrors now that Ferdy Murphy has hit some kind of form. This one has kept Graded company at Cheltenham since beating Dear Villez at Ayr; he, too, will like today’s track and it will be a shame if he can’t cash in today, or very soon, on his handicap mark. Chapoturgeon (1.25) has had this as his target for some time and goes in my Daq Multiples, along with Optimus Maximus (1.30) and Celestial Halo (2.05), who can boost Binocular, at Sandown. Chapoturgeon will tell us more – as if we need to know – about Araldur (2.35, who slammed him 17 lengths at Warwick before dismissing Free World over today’s course at 2m. In fact, what we do need to know is whether Araldur gets today’s trip, at which Herecomesthetruth and Massini’s Maguire are competent. Pass. Jonjo O’Neill is in business again big time, and he has two lightweights that must be backed each way: Cruchain (3.10), at 9.0 as I write, may have most to fear from the 15.5 trade How’s Business, transformed by a wind operation, with Ballydub up in the weights and Blue Charm yet to prove he’s back. Can’t Buy Time (3.45) is another with a featherweight and his main adversary is New Little Bric, sparkling again at home and the ‘wrong’ price at 8.0. Good Company (4.20) could take Tony McCoy to the brink of the 3,000 but, looking to the future, I’m keen to see a happy return for Killaghy Castle. Good luck!
TODAY'S BETS
BET 4pts win IMSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt win and place THREE MIRRORS (3.00 Doncaster BET 2pts win and place CRUCHAIN, 1pt win and place HOW’S BUSINESS (3.10 Sandown) LAY to win 10pts WILL BE DONE (3.25 Wetherby) BET 1pt win and place GAORA LANE (3.30 Doncaster) BET 2pts win and place NEW LITTLE BRIC, 1pt saver CAN’T BUY TIME (3.45 Sandown) DAQ MULTIPLES: Optimus Maximus, Chapoturgeon, Celestial Halo, Good Company and Imsingingtheblues, charged to the account as 1pt win trebles.
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Ireland's Eye - Saturday

Saturday 31 January

IRELAND'S EYE

A quiet day for us yesterday with just two selections and though we did get our second choice Minella Boys home at 2/1 we still lost 5pts on the day.

Today is the last trading day of the month and we have high hopes of finishing the month on a high note - although unfortunately the meeting at Fairyhouse was abandoned earlier this morning.....

Nicky Richards' yard are in reasonable form and the Greystoke handler can land the 2-20 at Wetherby – an extended 2m 4f hc chase with former facile point scorer and subsequent three time winner The Whisperer. Though the Davy Condon ridden top weight is set to carry 11-12 the eight year old boasts a 100% record first time up and he can take this pot at the expense of course specialist Ellerslie Yewkay who could make a bold bid from the front.

Herecomesthetruth – formerly a useful point to pointer is arguably unlucky not to be unbeaten over fences, having run out when holding every chance on his second start in Cheltenham. In the meanwhile he has accounted for last weekends gritty hurdle victor Presenting Copper in Chepstow and the Ruby Walsh ridden gelding could make a bold bid from the front in this extended 2m 4f Grade 1 novice chase in Sandown at 2-35 against admittedly strong opposition but this fizzy sort should be helped by his slick jumping and give the Nicholls team yet another Saturday winner.

At Sandown the Totepool Contenders Hurdle at 2-05 over an extended 2 miles should prove highly informative with Afsoun, last years Champion Hurdle runner up Osana and last years Triumph hurdle winner Celestial Halo going head to head. With the second named having his first run of the season the vote goes to the Paul Nicholls trained and Ruby Walsh ridden Celestial Halo who was put in his place by Binocular last time but he should boost his Champion hurdle prospects here with a win over Osana.

The concluding extended 3 mile maiden hurdle in Doncaster looks decidedly open but there could be some value to be gleaned from supporting the Alison Thorpe trained ex Limavady scorer Normally who battled well to take a fair third on his Park bow over the trip in Chepstow on heavy a forthnight ago. Alan King's Thewincamdrift has been running consistently well and commands respect along with Broken Beau, bumper winner Picture This and former pointer Finbin.

ADVICE
RIVER SHANAKILL lay to lose 5pts 1-45 Wetherby
CELESTIAL HALO – 8pts win 2-05 Sandown
THE WHISPERER – 5pts win saver 3pts win Ellerslie George 2-20 Wetherby
HERECOMESTHETRUTH – 5pts win 2-35 Sandown
SHAKEY SCAFFOLD – 4pts win saver 2pts win Macs Lad 2-55 Fairyhouse
IFYOUCOULDSEEMENOW – 4pts win 4-00 Fairyhouse
NORMALLY 3pts win 1pt place 4-10 Doncaster





 




 

Ed Chamberlin's Weekend Thoughts 30th January 2009

Friday 30 January

Hi Everyone, Ed Chamberlin here on Friday 30th January looking ahead to yet another cracking weekend of sport and let's hope it's a profitable one for all those punting on the Daq.

Well, let's start with the weekend's s big Premiership clash and Liverpool host Chelsea at Anfield on Saturday and are hot favourites with Betdaq to emerge with all three points. 

Interestingly, Rafa Benitez lost almost 60% of his first 25 games against the Big Four as Liverpool boss, but they are now unbeaten in eightagainst them across all competitions. Phil Scolari on the other hand has only picked up one point from a possible 12 in his four Big Four games.

Chelsea had an excellent record against the top sides in their two title winning seasons (W9-D2-L1 in the league), butthings have rapidly deteriorated since the Mourinho glory days. They have failed to win any of their last nine at the Big Four across all competitions, drawing four and losing five, including all of their last three in the league. The only glimmer of hope for Chelsea fans is that since Abramovich took over, they have never gone four league games without a win on the road(currently winless in three away games).

The key feature from games between these two over the years has been the strength of the defences. This is the 21st competitive game (not including the Charity Shield) between the sides since Benitez became manager and just two have seen more than two goals, with 11 out of 20 producing one or none. Therefore, I'm keen to snap up some of the 1.65 available on the Daq about there being under 2.5 goals in Sunday's fixture.

Elsewhere in the Premiership, I fancy under 2.5 goals at Old Trafford on Saturday night when Everton visit and the 1.8 should not be missed. For all you layers out there, Spurs look pretty dodgy favourites at Bolton and their dreadful away form and record at the Reebok cannot be ignored.

It's the SuperBowl on Sunday night and I'm half tempted to side with the Cardinals with a 7 point handicap start on the Daq as only one of the last nine teams to start the Super Bowl as 7 or more point favourites has gone on to cover the handicap. Yet I think I’ll wait for an in-play trade as I’ve been worried for a few weeks now that the wheels are about to come off the Arizona bandwagon. That all important first score will dictate the flow of the game and amazingly, 71% of teams scoring the first touchdown have gone on to lift the Super Bowl. Larry Fitzgerald has been the sensation of the post season with an incredible haul of five touchdowns and 23 receptions. At 6ft 3in and 220lbs, the Cardinals wide receiver is more than a handful and Kurt Warner quite literally only had eyes for him against Philadelphia a fortnight ago. I can see no reason why the combination won’t look to hook up again on virtually every scoring play on Sunday night and reckon the 7.0 available about Fitzgerald scoring the first touchdown of the game just has to be taken. Warner elected to throw to his number 11 rather than let Edgerrin James run the football even when deep in goal against Philly and Pittsburgh’s awesome rush defence may force him to do the same again.

Finally, I'll be hoping that my old pal AP McCoy can boot home his 3000th winner at Sandown tomorrow. He's got some cracking looking rides and deserves every success he gets. He really is one of the true greats. Good luck everyone and have a cracking weekend.

Ed

Alan McInally - Weekend Preview

The signs are ominous for the challengers to Manchester United's Premiership title defence now that the Red Devils have opened up clear daylight at the head of the table.  Twelve clean sheets on the trot is a remarkable achievement and Liverpool and Chelsea need to find a rapid run of consecutive wins if they are going to topple the current 4/9 favourites on the "Daq". You can listen to my views on the title and the hyper competitive relagation battle via the "Daqcast" with Russ Wiseman.

Back to this weekend and lets keep up our tremendous run going with three picks that make perfect sense to me.  Fulham and Portsmouth square off at Craven Cottage and I don't see how these two struggling outfits can produce goals.  The real pressure is of course on Tony Adams as his side have drawn two and lost five of their last seven games.  You don't need to be a genius to realise his pre match team talk will implore his men to keep it ultra tight.  Roy Hodgson has his own problems though and Fulham have hit a real flat spot in their season with a string of very poor performances.  Under 2.5 goals is a knocking trade in this one and is backable at 1.76 on Betdaq right now.

Bolton are a solid proposition on the Asian Handicap market draw no bet at home to Spurs.  Gary Megson's men have played well of late without much reward and were unlucky not to hold off Blackburn in midweek.  The Trotters have more steel about them than a Spurs side who look disorganised and low on confidence.  Harry Redknapp has a big job getting the most out of a bunch of players who are lacking vital quality and there are even one or two cracks appearing in the usually positive Manager's profile.  I don't think Spurs will enjoy this visit to the Reebok and see them being outfought and basically willed out of the game.  Take the 2.07 as stakes returned looks the worst result for my money.

Although Middlesbrough have fallen into the relegation zone I am prepared to give them a chance to begin turning the tide when they host Blackburn on Saturday.  The win at Wolves in the cup last week was a revelation and Gareth Southgate will have been buoyed by his team's excellent showing.  One point from the last six games is alarming but Blackburn had a brutal match at Bolton in midweek and are still some way off safety under Big Sam Allardyce.  The play here is definitely to lay the visitors at the current 3.1 on Betdaq.

Good Luck to you all!

Ireland's Eye - Friday

Friday 30 January

IRELAND'S EYE

Though our shorter priced tips let us down with a bang yesterday it was another big payday as our selections Lurgan (4-10/3) and Carronhills (3-11/4) delivered while our saver Moscova (4-7/2) also scored and in addition we got Freneys Well turned over in the hunter chase in Thurles. All in all it was a 29 point profit to keep our fine run going.

The action looks thin on the ground today but we will go to Catterick for a couple of possible value bets. Whilst the 2-35 sees former Dungarvan point winner Minella Boys – who landed a small 'touch' at bigger odds in Sedgefield over three miles and four off top weight ten days ago for the Walford team start short priced favourite in this extended 3m 1f hc chase there could be better value in another former point scorer.

The former John Hassett trained Clear The Way comes under the category of very lightly raced and most if not all of his form has been on a good surface (won point in Bartlemy on good/firm in 2007) he hinted last time that softer ground may not hold too many fears and he rates a tentative bet off a low weight for the Sue Smith yard under Henry Oliver who also run course and distance winner Whatdoidowiththat. Bottom weight and former point winner Lockstown also rates a place interest.

There is little to go on in the concluding bumper at 4-20 with those with previous runs and form looking somewhat limited to date. Malcolm Jefferson boasts a decent record in these contests and his Gutter Lane could make a winning debut under Phil Kinsella whilst Peter Bowens newcomer Ballyhar Paddy could prove the main danger.

ADVICE
CLEAR THE WAY – 3pts win saver 2pt win Minella Boys 1pt place Lockstown 2-35 Catterick
GUTTER LANE – 3pts win saver 2pts win Ballyhar Paddy 4-20 Catterick




 




 

DAQMAN on FRIDAY

Friday 30 January 10-1 GAMBLE: Daqman was in on the Wincanton gamble yesterday. James De Vassy had never seen a racecourse until backed down to 11-4 SP from a morning 11.0 on Betdaq. Daqman declared this was his best meeting of the day, and so it proved. But his other Wincanton bet, Oiseau De Nuit (2nd 7-2), was beaten by Tony McCoy’s mount in a photo and it was also ‘seconditis’ at Thurles with Ballysassian (2nd 9-2). Daqman says his piece about Tony McCoy’s 3,000-wins celebrations today. And he may have found ‘another James De Vassy’, unraced in England, trading 12.5 for a novice hurdle at Catterick. We don’t get much practice at the good stuff, do we? No sooner had we get stuck into some meat and gravy at Thurles and Nad Al Sheba than we are back to bacon-butties at Catterick after further abandonments. How many more times, asks Bill in the betting shop, are they going to headline Tony McCoy’s 3,000 bid as if today’s the day, and it’s called off? The short answer is that McCoy deserves every word. We get blasé, as if Denman ran every day or there were free drinks every day at your local (mine has a sign up saying ‘free beer tomorrow’): we would get used to it and the novelty would wear off. McCoy is so good that that’s how it is: he is to jumps what Lester Piggott was to the Flat, Mohammad Ali was to boxing: the one and only. And he cost me yesterday. He costs me every time I drop my guard; in comes the sucker punch when I’m not looking. Who else would have got home on Stradbrook: giving exactly a stone to my bet, Oiseau De Nuit, challenged on both sides, headed and rallied to ‘a personal-best effort under a typically strong ride from the champion.’ Quote, unquote, Racing Post analysis. We’ve run out of adjectives, you see: ‘typically strong ride’ is the best we can do. With Piggott, they used to say he ‘lifted the horse over the line’; with Ali, pundits went pale, stunned as their box of superlatives emptied out. I feel lucky to have seen these three incredible athletes who, unlike some soccer players we all could name, had or have a quality about them that is way above the bar set by so many of today’s ‘celebs.’ So Man Of The Moment (4.10 Chepstow) passes us by; but there will be many more moments from the hungry hero, the real McCoy. Best race of the day is the Happy 70th Birthday John Jarvis Handicap at Catterick (2.00), and that prompts us to remember that every day somebody is somebody else’s hero in racing: trainer, jockey, owner, horse or, in this case, the sponsor or his subject for birthday greetings. That’s what this great game is all about. With six last-time-out winners straight down the card in this, from numbers five to 10, it takes some solving: but they all have their ‘ifs and buts’. Ceoperk, Justwhateverulike and More Like It have all looked more comfortable at 2m; Whatcanysay wins only at Sedgefield; Royal Hilarity is up 15lb; and Cardington has been off the track since around the time Sir Percy won the Derby. I’ll have my pound on Flake; 7.2 on Betdaq. His chase-form figures here are 112 (the second was off a higher mark in this race last year) and he’s just coming back to from. The worry is his weight on the ground compared, for instance, with De Boitron’s, 24lb lower, down the bottom of the handicap and showing signs that this is lenient after a wind operation: a 13.5 trade was tempting. The De Boitron team of Ferdy Murphy and Graham Lee have an interesting ex-Irish runner, Viel Gluck (3.10): 12.5 the win with a decent place-cover trade at 3.65 as I write. The Supreme Leader gelding caught the eye in a classy bumper won by potentially one of the top hurdlers in waiting, Hurricane Fly. Woolston Ferry (2.45 Lingfield) is miles clear in the ratings, is from a stable in form and has won a claimer before. Similarly, in tonight’s claimer, Blue Tomato (6.50 Wolverhampton) and Harry Up are rated well superior to any of their opponents and, if we rely on young William Carson’s allowance and Dandy Nicholls’ skill with sprinters, we can get 2-1 in a two-horse race. Our opponent is Jamie Spencer, who also has the next two favourites: Lady Vivien (7.20) ought to confirm her well-backed handicap win off this mark; she has the profile of an improver.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win FLAKE, and 1pt win and place DE BOITRON (2.00 Catterick) BET 6pts win WOOLSTON FERRY (2.45 Lingfield) BET 1pt win and place VIEL GLUCK (3.10 Catterick) BET 4pts win BLUE TOMATO (6.50 Wolverhampton) BET 8pts win LADY VIVIEN (7.20 Wolverhampton)
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Ireland's Eye - Thursday

Thursday 29 January

IRELAND'S EYE

Definitely not a good day at the office on Wednesday with nothing to show in Limerick so its back to Thurles today where there looks some interesting bets on a decent card.

A 2m 5f novice hurdle on testing ground at 2-35 in Thurles will place the premium in stamina and one who fills that bill perfectly is Dessie Hughes Lurgan who was going away at the finish when victorious in Naas last time and previously was far from disgraced when losing out by a length and a half to subsequent good winner The Midnight Club from the Willie Mullins yard. Indeed Mullins provides tache main danger in the former point winner Borrowaddy who also scored on the all weather and over hurdles in Wexford last time. However the Roger Loughran ridden 7yo looks to be on the upgrade and he can see off Borrowaddy and Hello Kitty.

Another fine renewal of the Grade 2 Kinloch Brae Chase over 2m 4f at 3-05 with the likes of One Cool Cookie, Knight Legend, Scotsirish, Glenfinn Castle and the formerly very useful mare Cailin Alainn set to face the starter. In a race where the ratings show there is very little between the principals the vote goes to arguably the most progressive runner in the field – the former point winner Scotsirish from the Willie Mullins yard with Ruby Walsh on board. The eight year old comes here on the back of a comprehensive win in the Hilly Way in Cork and though some doubts have been raised over his suitability at this trip there is no evidence to back up such misgivings. Knight Legend who went down to One Cool Cookie in Tramore last time may pose the main threat in addition to Glenfinn Captain. Cailin Alainn cannot be left out of calculations getting weight from the boys.

Former pointer Mark The Book has not yet achieved what he promised on initial efforts since joining Philip Hobbs and has been lightly raced in the process. The strapping eight year old son of Mister Lord and Kildorrery point winner admittedly returns from over a year off the track but he could be best when caught fresh and chasing was always going to be his game and he can finally deliver at the third attempt by taking the 2m 6f novice chase in Towcester at 4-00 under Tom O'Brien.

Local trainer Willie Harney has a decent mare on his hands in course winner Bohemian Lass and though the sweet jumping 6yo proved no match for the progressive Merchant Paddy last time she now reverts to mares company and though she has to carry a small penalty for her dual success over fences she can land this Grade 2 2m 4f chase at 4-05 under Johnny Cullen. Moskova who is best when delivered late and Garrai Ard look the main dangers.

The concluding 3m hunter chase at 4-35 is the first of 2009 and here Enda Bolger who boasts a proud record in this discipline is represented by the frustrating Freneys Well who has failed to score in 9 attempts in hunter chases/bank contests and has proved costly in the process. Though he did show himself to be in fine fettle when narrowly going down to the useful ex chaser Marcus Du Berlais in Kilfeacle recently we will take him on with John Costellos relatively lightly raced Carronhills who has come back this year in fine form, bolting home in an admittedly a modest Askeaton winners race having proved no match for the highly promising Enda Bolger trained An Siorrac previously. In addition the 5yo has the assistance of Nina Carberry. Three time point winner Another Marignan is another to enter calculations with Limerick hunter chaser scorer Twice The Craic.

ADVICE
LURGAN 5pts win saver 2pts win Borrowaddy 2-35 Thurles
SCOTSIRISH – 4pts win saver 2pts win Knight Legend 3-05 Thurles
MARK THE BOOK – 6pts win 4-00 Towcester
BOHEMIAN LASS – 6pts win saver 2pt win Moscova 4-05 Thurles
CARRONHILLS – 5pts win 4-35 Thurles
FRENEYS WELL – lay to lose 4pts 4-35 Thurles

 




 

DAQMAN on THURSDAY

Thursday 29 January DAQMAN has spent the morning back at the drawing-board, suddenly faced with six meetings after the dearth of cards because of bad weather. It’s good news for racing and it’s good news for Betdaq backers, as he finds value from Dubai to Southwell. Daqman needs five more wins for his 11th century of winning bets, with a five-hour race day of tips starting with the big one at Thurles. From scratching around for meagre bets among the few survivors of the mud, we are suddenly confronted with six meetings today. That’s where your record-keeping comes in: which tracks, which level of racing, which races do you do best in? It is essential to know your profitable areas. If you don’t, you have to cope with studying nearly 40 events as diverse as a Group-3 at Nad Al Sheba and a Class-6 at Southwell on ground ranging from fast to heavy. You won’t have time, and it’ll cost you. Wincanton is top of today’s venues in my own list but the mud remains and the card has survived only because it has been modified: no chases. Every pound in weight will count against you on clod-heavy terrain and, for instance, no horse this century carrying more than 11st has won the feature hurdle on soft ground or worse. The race is a perfect opportunity for bottomweight Oiseau De Nuit (3.10) to return to the ‘sticks’ off a 10lb lower mark than has been achieved by his chasing success, getting a stone from the forecast favourite with the second favourite, Darstardly Dick, sent out in hope alone by a yard that’s struggling after closing down for five weeks. Get on before the bird has flown: Oiseau de Nuit loves heavy ground. I don’t ‘know’ Nick Williams yard but he is in good form and James De Vassy (3.40) will have been well prepared for his debut, getting 17lb from Princeful: I again discount the Dartnall runner, which leaves only Spirit of Man standing between ‘De Vassy’ at 11.0 on Betdaq and the odds-on favourite. Frenetic sprinter Felix (4.15 Nad Al Sheba) flew to Dubai in a crate marked ‘machine,’ but failed to place on his debut over 7f there a week ago. Well, he would, wouldn’t he? He’s back to 5f today on the stands’ rail for Mubarak Bin Shafya, who has knocked in nine winners on the track since November, four already at Carnival. There was 11.5 on the Daq this morning. While other European raiders were wilting in the heat – it’s a pleasant 25C there today – Wise Dennis (6.20) was winning races as high as Listed level there last year at this time. He loves to come off a fast pace and, if he’s on song, the race will be run for him, with another well known to you, Banknote, likely to steam out of a high stands stall. At a 7.0 trade, I was happy to back Wise Dennis from the start of his 2009 Carnival career: if he needs the run, there will be another day at a better price. The progressive Yamal (3.45) has a handy pull of 12lb on Brave Tin Soldier for the in-form Godolphin squad. Pointing North is a worry but you have made Yamal favourite on the Daq this morning, so I’ll take your word for it, despite the absence of Frankie Dettori. In fact, Ted Durcan, who also rides Wise Dennis, is a more than able substitute with 17 in the frame from 30 ‘Nad’ rides since November. It’s all down to you today, Ted! Staying with quality horses, it’s the Kinloch Brae at Thurles today. Now if you think Wincanton is wet and Towcester is going to be a bit of a climb up that final hill, the mud at Thurles is like the mud at York. You need a York-heavy winner for heavy-ground bets at York, and the same applies here: you need a previous heavy-ground Thurles winner to be sure your bet will like the going. I’ve found only three today and two are in the same race: so I’m dutching Ballysassian and Estuary Princess (3.35) at around 6-1 each to dispose of Oran Flyer who has returned in good heart but on whom you wouldn’t want to put the mortgage – even if it is long overdue – since it’s now creeping on for three years since he won a race. The other heavy-ground Thurles winner is Bohemian Lass (4.05) who did the same again, hock deep in mud at Clonmel. She is dropped a grade, and down a furlong, for her defeat on a sounder surface at Leopardstown last time and, all being well, this should see her return to the winner’s enclosure. The Kinloch Brae itself (3.05) is a puzzle inside an enigma or, as Charlie Swann puts it mildly in the Racing Post: ‘There’s not much between a few of these.’ But you can’t win if you aren’t in; all you need is a fair deal, and that’s why we’ve got Betdaq. I’m prepared to give Kilcrea Castle a crack at 10.0 this morning: he has earned himself a decent rating with his last two runs; loved it heavy at Punchestown and then mixed it with higher-grade horses at Leopardstown. Will have to improve again today but who knows what trajectory a lightly-raced seven-year-old is on. The same applies to a four-year-old against older horses on AW at Wolver: Tourist (8.20) ran a good race over CD first try for new connections, is very lightly raced and is officially set to get more than a stone from the market leader. There was 7.0 on Betdaq at the time of writing.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place KILCREA CASTLE (3.05 Thurles) BET 3pts win and place OISEAU DE NUIT (3.10 Wincanton) DUTCH to win 8pts win BALLYSASSIAN and ESTUARY PRINCESS (3.35 Thurles) BET 1pt win and place JAMES DE VASSY (3.40 Wincanton) BET 3pts win and place YAMAL (3.45 Nad Al Sheba) BET 3pts win BOHEMIAN LASS (4.05 Thurles) BET 1pt win and place FELIX (4.15 Nad Al Sheba) BET 2pts win and place WISE DENNIS (6.20 Nad Al Sheba) BET 2pts win TOURIST (8.20 Wolverhampton)
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Ireland's Eye - Wednesday

Wednesday 28 January

IRELAND'S EYE

Normal service was resumed yesterday with Aldertune (3-2/1) landing the bumper while two of our savers and former pointers Tamadot (6/4-11/10) and Ballinderry Park (7/2-3/1) scored in Taunton and Folkestone respectively to give us a profit of 12pts on the days trading.

Limerick will be our main port of call today and the later contests in particular may prove the profit making vehicles. 

At 3-00 Galant Ferns will start at fairly short odds to land this 2m 3f mares maiden hurdle and in truth the Liam Kenny trained five year old is difficult to oppose on ground which looks certain to suit and as a previous course bumper victor and Davy Russell on board she should be able to land the odds. Nevertheless there could be some value in the place market with Pat O'Connors easy Avaune point scorer Rosemont Lady who admittedly did not shine in a bumper last time whilst Gerry O'Neills Ballinrobe point scorer Rapid Dream may also represent some value for a place following a modest runner up placing over course and distance last time.

The following handicap hurdle over the same distance looks more open but it is difficult to get away from the claims of Marian Flavins Moving On facile course winner over 2m 2f a month ago. Though the 7yo was unfancied on that occasion and has an extra furlong to travel here in addition to an 11lb rise the Barry John Foley ridden gelding should prove superior to the highly consistent Merry Cowboy and recent hurdle winner and dual point scorer Whinstone Boy.

Racing closes with an interesting 2m 3 1/2f hc chase and here the finish could be fought out between two decent and highly successful ex pointers in the lightly raced Bobbawn and Takeyourpick. The first named a 9yo has only raced six times in all throughout his career but was a facile winner of a hunter chase for Jimmy Mangan over 2m 6f in 2006 and would have gone close but for a couple of late jumping errors in a handicap over course and distance a month ago. However a narrow vote goes to the Gerry Cully trained and prolific point scorer Takeyourpick who in common with the last named remains relatively unexposed over fences. Though his jumping is not always that consistent he nevertheless has landed a hunter chase and went down to one of todays rivals Highglen in Tramore on last chase start. With the useful 5lb claim of Andy Thornton he can land the spoils at the expense of the Davy Russell ridden Bobbawn.

ADVICE
GALANT FERNS – 6pts win 2pt place Rosemont Lady 1pt place Rapid Dream 3-00 Limerick
MOVING ON – 4pts win saver 2pts win Merry Cowboy 3-35 Limerick
TAKEYOURPICK – 5pts win saver 3pts win Bobbawn 4-40 Limerick

 




 

DAQMAN on WEDNESDAY

Wednesday 28 January DAQMAN today completes his short list of value horses and spots the missing ingredient in today’s Press assessments of the Arkle Trophy, namely some massive trades on the outsiders on Betdaq. Two jumps meetings have gone but there is still sport at Newcastle, and two AW meetings. Scouting all ends of the day’s markets, Daqman’s bets range from a big outsider at 58.0 to a ‘buying money’ banker at 1.5. He needs six more to reach his 11th century of winning bets. When I’m looking at horses with the potential for Cheltenham, I shuffle some of the good ones sideways, those I think would prefer a flat track, marking them down for Aintree three weeks later. My Petra and Panjo Bere are on that list this season. My Petra is ‘forgotten’, largely because she doesn’t quite get up the Cheltenham hill and is a ‘nearly horse’ on tough tracks. The mare was run out of the Grand Annual by Tiger Cry in March and beaten only a neck by Gwanako at Ascot last month. Another reason Aintree will suit her is her liking for good ground. Panjo Bere leapt into the top bracket at Ascot a couple of weeks ago, and ‘leapt’ is the word: he is a natural over fences. Cheltenham was mentioned, even that he might be better on soft ground. But I thought he delivered a flat-track finish and would love to see him skip around Aintree. As I said yesterday, the ante-post books give a good guide to how the public sees a horse: they are also worth comparison with Betdaq; it’s an essential in your armoury, in fact. That was the missing ingredient today in Pricewise’s Arkle Trophy analysis: the column ‘forgot’ to show that, for instance, Panjo Bere was 32.0 on Betdaq this morning, almost double most offers (16-1) by the bookmakers. Jayo was 36.0, alongside 16-1 and 20-1, while Palomar’s 44.0 compares with 25-1 and 33-1 with the bookies, and Tranquil Sea was 60.0 as against mainly 25-1 on the book. Albertas Run is another ‘forgotten horse’ in my lists: forgotten? surely he was runner-up in the King George. Indeed, but the public haven’t forgiven the Sun Alliance winner for his loss of form while the stable was in the doldrums. So it is that Albertas Run is a big price at 14.5 on Betdaq – only 10-1 with bookmakers – for the forthcoming Irish Hennessy Gold Cup. We’ve lost most of the jumping today and finding a winner is like searching for a fresh chicken in a supermarket. There are eight of them – winners not chickens (oh I don’t know, though) - somewhere at Newcastle and 118 runners means they’ll take some catching. But just look at the enthusiasm, particularly in the opening conditionals race (12.20): we have Low Delta and Vehari making a total trip of more than 500 miles, and Nick Scholfield’s gone up there, too. The fun bet here, at 58.0 (and 7.4 a place) has to be four-times course winner Indy Mood – worse pun than one of my mine – who, if first-time blinkers get him in the mood, is 10lb below his rating of a couple of months ago and has 19lb less than his last win, albeit back in the good old days when you could borrow money. I can see Howard Johnson having a good day, and the only ‘nugget’ at the meeting may be Door Boy (3.05), dropped in class after his effort over too short a trip in a Grade 2 at Ascot. A short price but that relates to risk, and he’s more than a stone better in official ratings than the second favourite, which says it all. I’d love to tell you that I have big gallops news for AW meetings, but the boys in the long grass get fed up during the winter; about now, they want to start talking about the Classics already. You may have noticed the big buzz they have put around for Extraterrestrial in the Lincoln Handicap (more money for him reported last night) but I recall that Richard Fahey’s five-year-old was only 16th of 17 at Doncaster at the last Lincoln meeting. Or was that part of the plan? Surely not, Mr Fahey. The same stable has Mighty Moon (1.20 Newcastle) in with a big shout today; he could be ready now to beat Drever Route, who hasn’t lived up to that eponymous billing as the next ‘Inglis’; his form seems to have flattened out. They want the Fahey newcomer Cunning Clarets (4.15) in the bumper; the four-year-old was backed into favourtism on Betdaq this morning. There was no move for Quover Bay – 15.0 on the Daq – but this one has a pedigree full of winners and Sue Smith is two from two in bumpers on the course. On AW, Nora Chrissie (3.15 Lingfield) might be worth a pound; the mare’s most consistent form is at Dundalk on Ireland’s only man-made surface. She’d been showing signs, and then excelled herself last time out when runner-up to a 100-rated winner. Here she is, still off 69, but whether the longer trip will suit, that remains to be seen. Jamie Spencer might help, he of the hold-up for the late burst. I’ll take a chance on Duke Of Normandy (2.05), first time in a handicap. Half the field are potential front-runners or free-goers, but Mark Johnston’s charge may not race as fresh as he did last time after a three-month break. Johnson is three-handed at Kempton tonight, and I’m chasing my losses  - oh dear! - on Bushveld (8.50), back in trip after being run out of it over a longer distance on the course on his latest start.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place INDY MOOD (12.20 Newcastle) BET 2pts win MIGHTY MOON (1.20 Newcastle) BET 2pts win DUKE OF NORMANDY (2.05 Lingfield) BANKER 10pts win DOOR BOY (3.05 Newcastle) BET 2pts win and place NORA CHRISSIE (3.15 Lingfield) BET 2pts win CUNNING CLARETS, and 1pt win and place QUOVER BAY (4.15 Newcastle) BET 6pts win BUSHVELD (8.50 Kempton)
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