DAQMAN on WEDNESDAY

Wednesday 28 January DAQMAN today completes his short list of value horses and spots the missing ingredient in today’s Press assessments of the Arkle Trophy, namely some massive trades on the outsiders on Betdaq. Two jumps meetings have gone but there is still sport at Newcastle, and two AW meetings. Scouting all ends of the day’s markets, Daqman’s bets range from a big outsider at 58.0 to a ‘buying money’ banker at 1.5. He needs six more to reach his 11th century of winning bets. When I’m looking at horses with the potential for Cheltenham, I shuffle some of the good ones sideways, those I think would prefer a flat track, marking them down for Aintree three weeks later. My Petra and Panjo Bere are on that list this season. My Petra is ‘forgotten’, largely because she doesn’t quite get up the Cheltenham hill and is a ‘nearly horse’ on tough tracks. The mare was run out of the Grand Annual by Tiger Cry in March and beaten only a neck by Gwanako at Ascot last month. Another reason Aintree will suit her is her liking for good ground. Panjo Bere leapt into the top bracket at Ascot a couple of weeks ago, and ‘leapt’ is the word: he is a natural over fences. Cheltenham was mentioned, even that he might be better on soft ground. But I thought he delivered a flat-track finish and would love to see him skip around Aintree. As I said yesterday, the ante-post books give a good guide to how the public sees a horse: they are also worth comparison with Betdaq; it’s an essential in your armoury, in fact. That was the missing ingredient today in Pricewise’s Arkle Trophy analysis: the column ‘forgot’ to show that, for instance, Panjo Bere was 32.0 on Betdaq this morning, almost double most offers (16-1) by the bookmakers. Jayo was 36.0, alongside 16-1 and 20-1, while Palomar’s 44.0 compares with 25-1 and 33-1 with the bookies, and Tranquil Sea was 60.0 as against mainly 25-1 on the book. Albertas Run is another ‘forgotten horse’ in my lists: forgotten? surely he was runner-up in the King George. Indeed, but the public haven’t forgiven the Sun Alliance winner for his loss of form while the stable was in the doldrums. So it is that Albertas Run is a big price at 14.5 on Betdaq – only 10-1 with bookmakers – for the forthcoming Irish Hennessy Gold Cup. We’ve lost most of the jumping today and finding a winner is like searching for a fresh chicken in a supermarket. There are eight of them – winners not chickens (oh I don’t know, though) - somewhere at Newcastle and 118 runners means they’ll take some catching. But just look at the enthusiasm, particularly in the opening conditionals race (12.20): we have Low Delta and Vehari making a total trip of more than 500 miles, and Nick Scholfield’s gone up there, too. The fun bet here, at 58.0 (and 7.4 a place) has to be four-times course winner Indy Mood – worse pun than one of my mine – who, if first-time blinkers get him in the mood, is 10lb below his rating of a couple of months ago and has 19lb less than his last win, albeit back in the good old days when you could borrow money. I can see Howard Johnson having a good day, and the only ‘nugget’ at the meeting may be Door Boy (3.05), dropped in class after his effort over too short a trip in a Grade 2 at Ascot. A short price but that relates to risk, and he’s more than a stone better in official ratings than the second favourite, which says it all. I’d love to tell you that I have big gallops news for AW meetings, but the boys in the long grass get fed up during the winter; about now, they want to start talking about the Classics already. You may have noticed the big buzz they have put around for Extraterrestrial in the Lincoln Handicap (more money for him reported last night) but I recall that Richard Fahey’s five-year-old was only 16th of 17 at Doncaster at the last Lincoln meeting. Or was that part of the plan? Surely not, Mr Fahey. The same stable has Mighty Moon (1.20 Newcastle) in with a big shout today; he could be ready now to beat Drever Route, who hasn’t lived up to that eponymous billing as the next ‘Inglis’; his form seems to have flattened out. They want the Fahey newcomer Cunning Clarets (4.15) in the bumper; the four-year-old was backed into favourtism on Betdaq this morning. There was no move for Quover Bay – 15.0 on the Daq – but this one has a pedigree full of winners and Sue Smith is two from two in bumpers on the course. On AW, Nora Chrissie (3.15 Lingfield) might be worth a pound; the mare’s most consistent form is at Dundalk on Ireland’s only man-made surface. She’d been showing signs, and then excelled herself last time out when runner-up to a 100-rated winner. Here she is, still off 69, but whether the longer trip will suit, that remains to be seen. Jamie Spencer might help, he of the hold-up for the late burst. I’ll take a chance on Duke Of Normandy (2.05), first time in a handicap. Half the field are potential front-runners or free-goers, but Mark Johnston’s charge may not race as fresh as he did last time after a three-month break. Johnson is three-handed at Kempton tonight, and I’m chasing my losses  - oh dear! - on Bushveld (8.50), back in trip after being run out of it over a longer distance on the course on his latest start.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place INDY MOOD (12.20 Newcastle) BET 2pts win MIGHTY MOON (1.20 Newcastle) BET 2pts win DUKE OF NORMANDY (2.05 Lingfield) BANKER 10pts win DOOR BOY (3.05 Newcastle) BET 2pts win and place NORA CHRISSIE (3.15 Lingfield) BET 2pts win CUNNING CLARETS, and 1pt win and place QUOVER BAY (4.15 Newcastle) BET 6pts win BUSHVELD (8.50 Kempton)
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