DAQMAN on THURSDAY

Thursday 29 January DAQMAN has spent the morning back at the drawing-board, suddenly faced with six meetings after the dearth of cards because of bad weather. It’s good news for racing and it’s good news for Betdaq backers, as he finds value from Dubai to Southwell. Daqman needs five more wins for his 11th century of winning bets, with a five-hour race day of tips starting with the big one at Thurles. From scratching around for meagre bets among the few survivors of the mud, we are suddenly confronted with six meetings today. That’s where your record-keeping comes in: which tracks, which level of racing, which races do you do best in? It is essential to know your profitable areas. If you don’t, you have to cope with studying nearly 40 events as diverse as a Group-3 at Nad Al Sheba and a Class-6 at Southwell on ground ranging from fast to heavy. You won’t have time, and it’ll cost you. Wincanton is top of today’s venues in my own list but the mud remains and the card has survived only because it has been modified: no chases. Every pound in weight will count against you on clod-heavy terrain and, for instance, no horse this century carrying more than 11st has won the feature hurdle on soft ground or worse. The race is a perfect opportunity for bottomweight Oiseau De Nuit (3.10) to return to the ‘sticks’ off a 10lb lower mark than has been achieved by his chasing success, getting a stone from the forecast favourite with the second favourite, Darstardly Dick, sent out in hope alone by a yard that’s struggling after closing down for five weeks. Get on before the bird has flown: Oiseau de Nuit loves heavy ground. I don’t ‘know’ Nick Williams yard but he is in good form and James De Vassy (3.40) will have been well prepared for his debut, getting 17lb from Princeful: I again discount the Dartnall runner, which leaves only Spirit of Man standing between ‘De Vassy’ at 11.0 on Betdaq and the odds-on favourite. Frenetic sprinter Felix (4.15 Nad Al Sheba) flew to Dubai in a crate marked ‘machine,’ but failed to place on his debut over 7f there a week ago. Well, he would, wouldn’t he? He’s back to 5f today on the stands’ rail for Mubarak Bin Shafya, who has knocked in nine winners on the track since November, four already at Carnival. There was 11.5 on the Daq this morning. While other European raiders were wilting in the heat – it’s a pleasant 25C there today – Wise Dennis (6.20) was winning races as high as Listed level there last year at this time. He loves to come off a fast pace and, if he’s on song, the race will be run for him, with another well known to you, Banknote, likely to steam out of a high stands stall. At a 7.0 trade, I was happy to back Wise Dennis from the start of his 2009 Carnival career: if he needs the run, there will be another day at a better price. The progressive Yamal (3.45) has a handy pull of 12lb on Brave Tin Soldier for the in-form Godolphin squad. Pointing North is a worry but you have made Yamal favourite on the Daq this morning, so I’ll take your word for it, despite the absence of Frankie Dettori. In fact, Ted Durcan, who also rides Wise Dennis, is a more than able substitute with 17 in the frame from 30 ‘Nad’ rides since November. It’s all down to you today, Ted! Staying with quality horses, it’s the Kinloch Brae at Thurles today. Now if you think Wincanton is wet and Towcester is going to be a bit of a climb up that final hill, the mud at Thurles is like the mud at York. You need a York-heavy winner for heavy-ground bets at York, and the same applies here: you need a previous heavy-ground Thurles winner to be sure your bet will like the going. I’ve found only three today and two are in the same race: so I’m dutching Ballysassian and Estuary Princess (3.35) at around 6-1 each to dispose of Oran Flyer who has returned in good heart but on whom you wouldn’t want to put the mortgage – even if it is long overdue – since it’s now creeping on for three years since he won a race. The other heavy-ground Thurles winner is Bohemian Lass (4.05) who did the same again, hock deep in mud at Clonmel. She is dropped a grade, and down a furlong, for her defeat on a sounder surface at Leopardstown last time and, all being well, this should see her return to the winner’s enclosure. The Kinloch Brae itself (3.05) is a puzzle inside an enigma or, as Charlie Swann puts it mildly in the Racing Post: ‘There’s not much between a few of these.’ But you can’t win if you aren’t in; all you need is a fair deal, and that’s why we’ve got Betdaq. I’m prepared to give Kilcrea Castle a crack at 10.0 this morning: he has earned himself a decent rating with his last two runs; loved it heavy at Punchestown and then mixed it with higher-grade horses at Leopardstown. Will have to improve again today but who knows what trajectory a lightly-raced seven-year-old is on. The same applies to a four-year-old against older horses on AW at Wolver: Tourist (8.20) ran a good race over CD first try for new connections, is very lightly raced and is officially set to get more than a stone from the market leader. There was 7.0 on Betdaq at the time of writing.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place KILCREA CASTLE (3.05 Thurles) BET 3pts win and place OISEAU DE NUIT (3.10 Wincanton) DUTCH to win 8pts win BALLYSASSIAN and ESTUARY PRINCESS (3.35 Thurles) BET 1pt win and place JAMES DE VASSY (3.40 Wincanton) BET 3pts win and place YAMAL (3.45 Nad Al Sheba) BET 3pts win BOHEMIAN LASS (4.05 Thurles) BET 1pt win and place FELIX (4.15 Nad Al Sheba) BET 2pts win and place WISE DENNIS (6.20 Nad Al Sheba) BET 2pts win TOURIST (8.20 Wolverhampton)
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