DAQMAN on FRIDAY

Friday 9 January Daqman was ready to give up on AW and welcome back the jumps but he has a strong message today for a star bet at Lingfield. Has the same trainer pirated two handicaps there, one of them at 34.0 on the Daq this morning? Daqman continues with his week’s theme about place betting and finds more Betdaq value. And the return of the jumps will have to wait for tomorrow at Ayr. For the first time this week, I was scraping the ice from the windscreen, and opening the Racing Post before I’d left the shop: 14-1. That’ll do me! But, as so often happens, the ‘whisper’ was too loud; everybody’s heard it. The world and his wife are on, as they say. That 14-1 paper forecast for the ‘best handicapped’ horse on the All Weather had become 7.0 when I called up the Daq, even before breakfast. The horse is Star Choice (4.00 Lingfield), which my Newmarket man describes as ‘about as good as it gets in January.’ Formerly with Michael Bell, he had a setback shortly after the Sales and badly needed the race last time out when running over an inadequate trip. The Choisir gelding has looked seriously impressive in his work, going clear of 77-rated Sabre Light, which suggests he could be up to 20lb better than his mark. So 7.0 was still a value bet and the good news was the 2.38 a place, which would give me full insurance – and more – on my win stake. There are two schools of thought on each-way betting: Punter A sees the place bet as cover, or partial cover, for your win stake; Punter B says why not use that place money for a win bet on another horse. I’ll be looking at both sides of the argument in future columns, but one obvious each-way ploy is when the odds are so big that the place part is as good as a win bet. It seems appropriate for Jeff Pearce’s other well-handicapped runner today, Space Pirate (2.30). The 34.0 for a win suggests that a more guarded approach is required and 8.4 the place looks more solid. However, the word from my man in the long grass is of excellent home work - though Space Pirate really needs a bit further than 10 furlongs – and he makes the point that the same stable’s Formidable Guest has been withdrawn from the race. Punter B’s claim for using your bank for another win bet could be made in the 1.30, where there are vibes that St Moritz will follow some of his family to a winning AW debut but Rebel City has the experience and has put in some pleasing gallops lately. Head Down and Kamanja do not impress and General Sam is seen as a ‘rag’ (20.0) in the Betdaq market this morning, so I’ll back St Moritz and save on Rebel City. At first sight the handicapper has hold of Alf Tupper (2.35 Wolverhampton) but he might well have won here over a furlong shorter last time when pushed to the front too soon and being run out of it by Mr Chocolate Drop. Further encouragement is taken from Mr Chocolate Drop’s run in midweek when he would have won in a couple more strides. Sir Mark Prescott has averaged 30 AW winners over the last two years and could get off the mark for 2009 with Cecily (4.35); she hasn’t been in training long after a break but is a sharp sort who doesn’t take a lot of getting ready. Blue Charm (3.05) is weighted to reverse Southwell positions with Nightjar but is 7.2 to that one’s 4.1 on Betdaq as I write. The remarkable thing was 3.4 Blue Charm for one of the two places. The gelding’s trainer, Sylvester Kirk – it’s his own horse – has had 10 placed from his last 14 runners, four of them winners.  Paul Nicholls words on the Sporting Life website today at last part-echo the concern in this column about backing Denman for Gold Cup or Grand National. The trainer says of Kauto Star and Denman that the differing preparations could make all the difference and ‘with Denman coming off the back of an injury scare he’s got it all to prove.’
TODAY'S BETS
BET 3pts win ST MORITZ and 1pt saver REBEL CITY (1.30 Lingfield) BET 1pt win and 2pts place SPACE PIRATE (2.30 Lingfield) BET 3pts win and place ALF TUPPER (2.35 Wolverhampton) BET 3pts win and place  BLUE CHARM (3.05 Wolverhampton) EACH-WAY BANKER 5pts win and place STAR CHOICE (4.00 Lingfield) BET 3pts win CECILY (4.35 Wolverhampton)
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