Betdaq Extra

DAQMAN on WEDNESDAY

Wednesday 31 December NOW AN 11-1 WINNER: The layers got a hangover from Christmas yesterday: still trying to digest his three 16-1 December scorers, they had to stomach another Daqman outsider yesterday. Planetary Motion (won 11-1) at Lingfield was among three more winners for the column. He was also on Newlyn Art (won 5-4) and King’s Forest (won 11-10).   It was another case of Daqman spotting the gambles before they happen: Kings Forest (won 11-10), which had turned over Hector’s Choice at the front of the morning market, did the same thing in the race.   Then 10.0 Betdaq trade Desert Storm crashed down to 4.5 between 9 a.m. and midday and finished 9-4 favourite (SP): what a bet and lay! It wasn’t supposed to be that easy, Hayley! As mentioned here yesterday, I planned to go banco on Mister Thatcher at Lingfield today as her ton-up winner. But Miss Turner has been bossing the ‘Misters’ on the track all year and she was ahead of the game again yesterday with a double completed at Wolverhampton last night. At least I was on her first leg, Newlyn Art. Turner, the artist of the saddle, has the instinct of a Willie Carson -  never say die -  and the cool posture of a Mick Kinane. Ironically, the bookies are going odds on Ms Turner to be in the top ten for BBC sports personality of 2009: if I were a top ‘man’ in racing, I wouldn’t set foot in a BBC studio until they showed some allegiance to our sport. Meanwhile, Mister Thatcher (2.00) returns to Lingfield almost a stone higher than for his easy win there a fortnight ago but he and Hayley have made all at ‘Wolver’ since, still have bottomweight in the handicap, and look hard to beat for the hat–trick. Older horses, a 10-furlong sort and a pure sprinter will all find this 6f difficult but River Kirov looked unlucky last time, and may be the main threat; otherwise, you have to choose between Lord Deevert and Is It Time, who are all of a heap on form with Interactive (NR). Betdaq backers agree with this analysis and go 9-1 bar Mister Thatcher and River Kirov, as I write; but, you know me, I started digging deeper for value in the ‘bar’: Lord Deevert has made virtually all here twice yet is only 2lb higher than the last of them two months ago; surely, then, 10.5 is ‘wrong’. It looks like a battle of front-runners so I need a price and, with the Hayley euphoria over, I will tone down my bet on Mister Thatcher and back Lord Deevert each way as well; after all, he’s been in the first four 13 times from the last 18 starts, front-runners fight or not. In the opener, Dimander’s form has been boosted but, from stall nine of nine, it will all have to drop right for him today and Maswerte (12.0) can now go past the exposed Today’s The Day over the extra furlong. Maswerte has been green on his two starts to date over inadequate trips, making good late progress; the step up to 7f will really suit him today: at 4.4, with a place offer which would save me 7/10ths of my win stake, he looked a genuine alternative to the favourite. They say ‘top weight in a nursery’ because it’s earned its place: well, Cut And Thrust (1.00) ran behind subsequent winners before hating the kickback at Southwell after being hampered last time. The gelding is working impressively on the Al Bahathri and, back over 7f on this better surface, should be another winner for Neil Callan, the track’s leading jockey who is 30% for his mount’s trainer, Michael Jarvis. Callan won so comfortably here when David Evans called him in to take over on I Confess (3.30) that the weight rise is unlikely to halt them; a three-year-old’s normal improvement can outrun the handicapper. It could be another Willie Mullins’ benefit at Punchestown on a card which brought him a double last year: you don’t need me to tell you about Ebaziyan (1.15), looking to follow in Snowy Morning’s footsteps, but the blue-blooded Mourad (2.45) may not get all his own way in the maiden the stable took in 2007 with C’est Ca. A son of Sinndar, Mourad has beaten a Classic-placed horse in his short career and, if he runs to that Flat level, and adapts to hurdling, will be hard to beat but he makes a big price for Manor Park. Jessica Harrington’s Hernando gelding has schooled brilliantly since a good run (with four of today’s opposition behind) in a big field on the heavy at Gowran: at 5.7 and near-evens a place, I’ll back Manor Park each way. If Mourad wins easily, there’s money to be had with him in the future without the first-time-over-the-sticks risk at the short-odds of a hyped favourite. The only finger-crossing I want to do today is for Cheltenham to be on tomorrow!
TODAY'S BETS
BET 3pts win and place MASWERTE (12.00 Lingfield) BET 5pts win CUT AND THRUST (1.00 Lingfield) BET 3pts win MISTER THATCHER and 1pt win and place LORD DEEVERT (2.00 Lingfield) BET 4pts win I CONFESS (3.30 Lingfield) BET 2pts win and place MANOR PARK (2.45 Punchestown)
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Ireland's Eye - Wednesday 31 December

Wednesday 31 December

The derailed train was on back on track yesterday when our only selection King's Forest (9/4-13/8) bolted in and we also got the favourite overturned to register a profit of 26 pts.
 
The final day of 2008 sees plenty of decent betting opportunities on a curtailed card and we will start with the opener in Tramore 12-35 – the seaside track may not be everyone idea of a betting medium but there are exceptions to every rule. Edward O'Gradys Indian Spring will start favourite here with Paul Townend in the plate but he does not have the profile of a watertight jolly as he is a long standing maiden and we will take him on with former useful pointer and hurdle scorer Monty Blue. Although Adrian Maguires charge carries a penalty that is offset by a useful 7lb claimer and the likelihood of better ground could be in this fellows favour, despite having won his hurdle on heavy.
 
The opener on the Punchestown card – a 3m novice chase could fall to another pointer (dual winner) Sir Johnny who admittedly is returning from an absence. Jim Cullottys 7yo boasts decent chase form and with the yard in fair form he can spring a mild surprise at the expense of the useful course winning mare Bronx Girl who must put a poor effort last time behind her.
 
Course form counts for a lot in Tramore and 'Shark' Hanlons Master 'N Commander who won on the flat at the Waterford venue and was not disgraced when finishing runner up to the gambled on Lock Mor Lad in Downpatrick last time can take the 1-35 a 2m 4f hc hurdle. Former point winner Harty's Quay could prove the ew alternative.
 
The 2m 5f novice chase in Tramore at 3-05 does not look an easy race to evaluate with question marks against most of the main players. Tim Doyle's Cool Bob was going well and lying close up when falling at the last in Limerick on his chase debut and he could prove the answer here under Mick Darcy at the expense of the exasperating Francis Du Mesnil.
 
Selection Box did us a favour on Stephens Day over 2m 4f and though he is dropping half a mile in trip on the 3-15 at Punchestown – a 2m hc chase he could defy a mandatory 6lbs hike in the weights at the expense of another penalised runner in Limerick scorer Jack Absolute for trainer Colin McBratney.
 
ADVICE

MONTY BLUE – 6pts win 12-35 Tramore
INDIAN SPRING – lay to lose 8pts 12-35 Tramore
SIR JOHNNY – 4pts win – saver 2pts win Bronx Girl 12-45 Punchestown
MASTER 'N COMMANDER – 4pts win – saver – 2pts win Harty's Quay 1-35 Tramore
COOL BOB – 3pts win 3-05 Tramore
SELECTION BOX – 5pts win – saver 2pts win Jack Absolute 3-15 Punchestown

DAQMAN on TUESDAY

Tuesday 30 December Form-figures -0855 but Daqman spotted Watch My Back (won 7-2), the medium of a gamble at Musselburgh yesterday. So, watch your backs, Betdaq layers! Daqman doubled Watch My Back with two more winners, Diamond Harry (odds against in the morning) and Red Moloney for four winning bets – plus a possible treble – on the day. Today he finds blue blood diluted at leafy Lingfield, the ton-up winners for a woman jockey, and a morning gamble at Taunton.   Daqman also tries for a fifth consecutive lay, a brave shout against an odds-on favourite. Look out at Lingfield, where an Arc fourth, a Royal Ascot two-year-old and the 750,000-dollar son of a Grade-1 winner are, all three, trading odds against on Betdaq this morning. The AW track has rarely, if ever, hosted such racing royalty on the same day but hold your horses until we’ve looked at the facts: dropping in class doesn’t always pocket minor prizes; such animals are usually downgraded for good reason But the first of them, Acropolis (12.20), trading 2.86 on Betdaq as I write, should be odds-on as a 93 running against 70-at-best opposition in the claimer, and trainer Ian Semple seems to mean business, traveling down from Scotland with the one horse. Semple, who was a key figure in the stables of John Dunlop and John Gosden before setting up in his own right, had 43% of his winners from AW in his best season (2006) at a strike rate of 21% against 10% overall, so I think it safe to assume that he has good training facilities for AW preparation.  Fourth for Aidan O’Brien at 100-1 in the 2004 Arc, Acropolis hasn’t won a race since – he’s even tried novice hurdles without success – but has never before been dropped below class-3 on the Flat, so he’s three grades lower here. The Racing Post has him dropping two grades from Class 4 to Class 6 but that would have to include a class-4 novice-hurdle run two years ago (behind Imperial Commander, no less). Planetary Motion (3.35) is the second on my blue-bloods list, the 750,000-dollar buy with a Grade-1 ‘mum’: this time, it’s not a case of being dropped in class but it could be the case that three maidens and a handicap tilt are in the trainer’s mind; in two runs so far, the Gone West grey has shown little or nothing and is easy to back at 10.5 on Betdaq. But, then again, the favourite, Confederate, and the Gary Moore filly Romantic retreat, are also on their third maidens. Mark Johnston, incidentally, is having his best-ever season for winners: numerically, his haul has gone up every year in the last four but, though  topping £2m, his 2008 prizemoney total still lags behind the golden year of 2002. Kingsgate Storm (2.30) is the third seeming aristocrat now reduced to pleb company: the grey was eighth in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. I can hardly suggest that the Ascot race is part of a deliberate plan for three runs and then a hit in handicap company! Nevertheless, it is the case that he is in a nursery for the first time, and 8.6 each way on Betdaq this morning was worth a pound. The danger is Hayley Turner on Newlyn Art: the Compton Place colt met a well treated horse in a novice stakes race when narrowly defeated by Noverre To Go but the handicapper has left him on 72. Newlyn Art has been working really well on the Cambridge Road Polytrack and Hayley seems to pop up riding regularly for Matthew Green  when they fancy their chances, witness the wins for him on Dover Street Art (Elsworth) yesterday and Spritual Art (Callaghan) recently. Hayley, two winners short of becoming the first female to ride a century, does a double stint at Lingfield and Wolverhampton today and has three booked rides at Lingfield tomorrow, including Mister Thatcher on whom she’s going for a hat-trick, so the ton-up chance looks good. Value each way for the Turner drive tonight are Kilkenny Bay (7.8 on Betdaq) and North Empire (5.5), both with outstanding chances. Kilkenny Bay (6.20) ran well after a tardy start when green on the debut; a major plus is that the favourite and second favourite are in stalls 10 and 12 whereas Hayley is in five. Once-useful Northern Empire (7.50) is back to form, winning with a lot in hand under a cool ride by Jamie Spencer last time; forget his run behind Ivory Silk when he reared in the stalls and fear not The Tatling if the form works out, since Northern Empire is better off at the weights for defeat by only a length. Again, we’re taking out place insurance on our win bet. At Taunton, odds-on-forecast Hector’s Choice (12.40) is odds against in the face of sustained interest in King’s Forest (gets 10lb), who was not disgraced at Cheltenham in October after a lay-off. Seeking The Buck is value each way, trading 42.0 as I write. He was a useful 80s horse on the Flat and was well supported on his hurdles debut; after getting close to a couple of flights, he was not unduly punished. The in-form Paddy Brennan is booked today. In a maiden hurdle on today’s course last month, where the useful Hot Diamond and Thundering Star impressed, pulling away, another Hobbs horse made a bit of late progress having never been put in the race, held up in rear. Desert Storm (2.15) impressed in the paddock as a big strong chasing type for the future and who didn’t actually look that fit, and I thought then that handicaps were on the cards. Reports from the yard since suggest he has really come to himself of late and that he is working well. At 13.5, and with Hobbs having a great record here, I’ll start following him now to small stakes. In the finale, I warn you that Pepe Simo (3.25) does not look the most enthusiastic and, when asked to win his race at Sandown he threw it away and, again at Newbury, he looked very content to hang away from the aids. Sam Thomas couldn’t ride a finish. They normally come up the stands to centre at Taunton, which could suit this horse who hangs left, but the big worry is how vigorous Sam will be able to get with him. We’ll lose very little at odds on if he does get ‘Pepe’ to respond, so let’s lay the demon. PS: I read that Alice Treedown is calling for Gold Cup ‘heavenly choirs’ to hail ‘Denman versus Kauto Star, the Second Coming’. A bit, premature, Alastair, since – as this column has warned before - we have yet to see the first coming of Denman this season.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 4pts win ACROPOLIS (12.20 Lingfield) BET 4pts win KING’S FOREST, plus 1pt win and place SEEKING THE BUCK (12.40 Taunton) BET 1pt win and place DESERT STORM (2.15 Taunton) BET 3pts win on each KINGSGATE STORM and NEWLYN ART (2.30 Lingfield) LAY to win 10pts PEPE SIMO (3.25 Taunton) BET 1pt win and place PLANETARY MOTION (3.35 Lingfield) BET 1pt win and place KILKENNY BAY (6.20 Wolverhampton) BET 3pts win and place NORTHERN EMPIRE (7.50 Wolverhampton)
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Ireland's Eye - Tuesday 30 December

Tuesday 30 December

Things went pear shaped in our effort to make it 4 winning days in a row yesterday when our main hope Deutchland (10/3-3) exited at the last when looking the winner in Leopardstown. Though we did pick up some consolation dough courtesy of My Lord Oscar (7/2-9/4) and Diamond Harry (8/11) it proved a loss of 33 points on the day.
 
As in life one must pick yourself up and dust yourself down and there could be a value bet in the opener in Taunton this afternoon 12-40 when former pointer King's Forest can land the 2m 1f novice hurdle for the Emma Lavelle stable with Jamie Moore on board. The 4yo finished well to take the runner up spot behind subsequent dual Park winner Micheal Flips in Lismore before taking a moderate second to the highly talented in a Fairyhouse bumper. Though beaten some eight lengths by another decent sort in Dee Ee Williams on his English debut a couple of months ago he shaped with plenty of promise as he was quite keen on that occasion. Though the ex French Hector's Choice will start at odds on he has to give 10lbs to the promising sort and he could find this a bridge too far.
 
ADVICE
KING'S FOREST – 7pts win 12-40 Taunton
HECTOR'S CHOICE – Lay to lose 10pts 12-40 Taunton

DAQMAN on Monday

Monday 29 December FOUR LAYS IN A ROW: Another favourite  (Dunaskin fell 2-1) bit the dust as Daqman extended his current lays sequence to four in a row yesterday. It followed Atlantic Story (0 7-2 ), My Petra (2nd 5-6) and Twist Magic (0 13-8), clocking up 177 since his lays began. The target is 200 by the start of the Flat: a perfect record till then would give him an 80% strike rate against favourites. Daqman’s wins yesterday also included Imperial Hills (won 4-1) at Leopardstown and he had Bensalem and Catch Me in his Daq Multiples. His winning-bets score is now 24 in the last nine days, including Lago (won 16-1), True Britannia (won 16-1) and Orki Des Aigles (won 16-1) for a profit of 36 points since he reached his 1,000 wins. If I could have yesterday over again, I would tip the same horses and, in fact, I shall double up on one of the bets: Neptune Collonges for the Gold Cup at 10.5 on Betdaq this morning, the best price in the business. If ever two horses impressed in one weekend, it was Notre Pere and Neptune Collonges, both very fine stamps of the old-fashioned chaser; I want them on my side for the rest of the season; and next. Both come from that rare seam of gold which fashions champions. Neptune Collonges was fresh and ‘did a Kauto’ but, until that point, impressed in appearance and style as I expected him to when I recommended that Cheltenham bet yesterday. Are there any future stars running today? Leopardstown again holds centre-court with three successive champion-hurdlers in the December Festival Hurdle (1.55) but, if there is a ‘nugget’ among them, a younger horse that will shine in the future, it would have to be Muirhead or Sizing Europe. Harchibald has taught us not to write off the old boys and Brave Inca had his last run franked by Catch Me yesterday; he had Hardy Eustace, Aitmatov and Muirhead behind then but that was a 20-furlong heat, and Muirhead was held up way off the pace to get the trip (and didn’t). While Muirhead has so far failed to step up to the top rank, Sizing Europe beat Hardy Eustace impressively on today’s ground in January and only tired in the mud after going clear of the same horse on his seasonal debut at Punchestown. What to expect from today’s race can be read between the lines of the Betdaq Champion Hurdle offers this morning: 9.0 Sizing Europe, 22.0 Sublimity, 42.0 Brave Inca, 188.0 Muirhead, 196.0 Hardy Eustace; no offers Aitmatov. There were doubts about Sizing Europe (bruised foot) but these seemed to be dispelled this morning: caution says reduce the size of your bet. The Challow Hurdle at Newbury is one for nuggets all right, but would you have seen the glint of steeplechase glory when 2002 Grand National hero Bindaree won it on only his fifth start in 1999? Or when a certain Denham won it two years ago? Nick Williams says that Diamond Harry (2.45) is the best he’s trained but, after his defeat of Hell’s Bay (holds Junior on Chepstow form), you will get no better than 4-5 this morning but there are strong signals for the Supreme Leader gelding Massasoit (3.7 on Betdaq); he was a revelation last time, once asked to do a trip. What caught my eye is the ‘book’ for the Ballymore at Cheltenham: 10.5 Diamond Harry but 26.0 Massasoit. Unlike Champion Hurdle trading, based on evidence, these offers are on the quicksand of transitional novice form and, when you guess, you need a price. I’ll put Massasoit in my personal Ballymore book at 26.0 and try to save the stake with a bet today. Paul Nicholls, who is won two, second twice, from his last four runners in this race, relies on Tony McCoy for Massasoit, with Ruby Walsh climbing on the Mullins’ bandwagon at Leopardstown: Willie’s 13 winners in the last fortnight represents a near-50% win strike-rate. Wow. If Ruby’s riding a nugget for him, it would have to be either Deutschland (1.25) or Pomme Tiepy (2.25): I’ll pass Deutschland this time but shall be watching him closely; Pomme Tiepy has the best overall profile in her race and she should be good enough to beat Give It Time, representing the Catch Me form but at a respectful distance. Finally, right out of the gold seam is Silver Blondin (3.50) in the last at Newbury: out of a half-sister to Morley Street and Granville Again, the silvery-grey Silver Patriarch gelding runs for a stable with a 37% record with newcomers in bumpers. The snag is Doctor Pat, a Doumen raider with McCoy riding for the boss man, J. P. McManus; the colt is the first offspring of Champion Hurdle third Bilboa and the vibes are good. Betdaq layers allowed me a decent dutch this morning; I can’t say until we’ve seen more of them which of the two is a nugget for the future but whatever beats them today – I think not – would certainly go on the list! At Musselburgh, Red Moloney (1.15), third in the Irish St leger, and Group-3 performer Vivaldi (1.50) are potentially quality hurdlers but Vivaldi has to do it first time against a talented performer in West With The Wind and Jamie Moore is flying up for the one ride on Metal Madness. Pass. Watch My Back (2.55) looks a solid each-way bet: a bumper and novice-hurdle winner, the Bob Back gelding gets his conditions for the first time over fences. The opposition looks moderate, with some older horses grinding out their long careers and some with form but giving weight; the exception is Categorical but he has looked distinctly one-paced.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 5pts win SIZING EUROPE (1.55 Leopardstown) BET 6pts win POMME TIEPY (2.25 Leopardstown) BET 4pts win MASSASOIT (2.45 Newbury) BET 3pts win and place WATCH MY BACK (2.55 Musselburgh) DUTCH to win 10pts SILVER BLONDIN and DOCTOR PAT (3.50 Newbury) DAQ MULTIPLES: Diamond Harry (2.45 Newbury) with Pomme Tiepy, Red Moloney (1.15 Musselburgh) and Watch My Back, charged to the account as 1pt win doubles. ANTE-POST: 1pt win NEPTUNE COLLONGES (Gold Cup), 1pt win MASSASOIT (Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle), both at Cheltenham.
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Ireland's Eye - Monday 29 December

Three successive winning days and 10 winning bets though our profit margin was slim 2pts yesterday and our main hope Trafford got nailed we still got Neptune Collonges beaten in the Lexus and in addition registered with Exotic Dancer (5-4/1) and we also got some dough out of Bensalem (4/11-1/3).

Another winning day today will put the cream on top for the Xmas period and we spread our net over three meetings today in Newbury, Limerick and Leopardstown.
 

Monday 29 December

Willie Mullins team continue in winning vein and his Deutchland should do the business in the 1-25 at Leopardstown – a 2m 3f novice chase under Ruby Walsh. Admittedly it is always brave to back a chaser following a fall but this fellow looked to be going as well as anything in Thurles last time and he can hit the target at the third attempt at the expense of Jaamid who was just his superior over hurdles.

Former high class pointer/bumper winner Shirley Casper let us down last time but the daughter of Presenting can go one better in the 2m 4f Listed hurdle at 2-25 for the Philip Fenton with Richard Hughes getting the leg up on one of his rare stints here over the sticks. Though she would be better served by even softer ground the allowances could swing it in her favour and she can cope with likely favourite Pomme Tieppy who was a tad disappointing in Cork last time.

The 2-10 in Limerick is a 2m 2f hc hurdle and the in form stable of Philip Rothwell could be on the mark here with Smack On who stayed on nicely to take a fair fifth behind Ross Accord over 2f less yesterday. Assuming he did not suffer any after effects he could land this contest but a saver on former point winner Lisabbey Lord who did not get too far at theis track two days ago.

Though the 2-40 the 2m 6f hc ch on the same card does not look too appealing on paper there could be some value to be gleaned by taking a chance on former dual point scorer Droim Toll on his seasonal debut. Donie Hassetts charge did lose his way last year he should be judged on his best efforts and he could also be best when fresh and this contest does not look to take that much winning. The other two to enter calculations are also former pointers My Lord Oscar from the Enda Bolger yard and the hat trick seeking Dromin Hill Echo.

Meanwhile at Newbury there are a couple of interesting contests, including the 2-10 a fascinating 2m ½ hurdle which sees two unbeaten hurdle performers which include the promising Dave's Dream. However the vote goes to the Alan King trained China Gold who has been running well against decent opposition and getting the five pounds he could beat the former pointer and consistent Abbeyvillian who would be the automatic choice if he had a few more furlongs to travel.

Another mouth watering contest is the Grade 1 2m 5f novice hurdle which in essence looks a match between the unbeaten Diamond Harry and Massasoit with apologies to supporters of Junior. Diamond Harry looks likely to start favourite after his impressive Cheltenham performance but Paul Nicholls Massasoit was equally impressive in Aintree where he had subsequent clear cut victor Copper Bleu a long way back and he is just given the vote with Tony McCoy in the plate.

The 2m 6f hunter chase in Limerick does not look a particularly appetizing betting medium but a little ew on Timmy Callaghans Brokenheartedclown who has been running reasonably well since returned from an absence and boasts some fair form in the past in this code may not go that far astray.

ADVICE
DEUTCHLAND – 7pts win – saver 2pts win Jaamid 1-25 Leopardstown
SHIRLEY CASPER – 6pts win – saver 2pts win Pomme Tieppy 2-25 Leopardstown
SMACK THAT – 5pts win – saver 3pts win Lisabbey Lord 2-10 Limerick
DROIM TOLL – 3pts win – saver 2pts win My Lord Oscar 2-40 Limerick
CHINA GOLD – 4pts win – saver 2pts win Ardavillian 2-10 Newbury
DIAMOND HARRY – lay to lose 6pts 2-45 Newbury
MASSASOI – 7pts win – 2-45 Newbury

DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 28 December DAQMAN returned to his super series of lays when he bismarcked Twist Magic (0 13-8 fav) at Kempton yesterday. It followed odds-on loser My Petra (2nd 5-6 fav) the previous Saturday. That was success number 176 at a 77% strike rate, with favourites only as the target, for a total of 1,186 points profit to a 10-point level-stake. Also yesterday, he named Michel le Bon (won 15-8) and 13-lengths bumper scorer Quel Esprit (won 4-5) as potential Cheltenham Festival winners. Today he lays another favourite, has another ante-post bet at Cheltenham and has maximum stakes on two bankers at Leopardstown.  Paul Nicholls will win the Cheltenham Gold Cup but, as you know, I am increasingly sceptical that his favourite, Denman, will be ready in time to be a genuine number-one for the stable. This column has already taken 6.0 Kauto Star (now down to 3.55 on Betdaq after the King George) but – because he is only seven - last year’s third, Neptune Collonges, could improve past one or both of them. I shall take the 10.5 on offer for Cheltenham today, covered – and more – by my banker bet on him in this afternoon’s Lexus at Leopardstown. The dual Punchestown Gold Cup winner clearly has no travel phobia and the Lexus plays to his stamina: War Of Attrition and The Listener like to be up with the pace and, though both can show courage enough under pressure, really like things their own way. And neither has the second wind that Neptune’ Collonges (2.35) showed at Cheltenham and then again at Punchestown, leading or being up there with them, then coming again with a renewed burst. That took him within a short-head of ‘Kauto’ in the Gold Cup; and, as the year younger horse, he is entitled to overtake him. He could be a very strong competitor this year. We nailed our flag to the Willie Mullins’ mast yesterday and Quel Esprit didn’t let us down, with a gamble from odds against landed in the bumper by 13 lengths, odds on at SP. The Biscuit Club (3.40 banker) can continue the Mullins run today: the Supreme Leader gelding needed the run on the debut and should now leave the others fighting for the crumbs. The market says that Roches Point is the danger but the Mullins winner, Rhyl Accord, which he chased home at Down Royal, is not considered to be in the same league as The Biscuit Club at home and Roches Point has been beaten again since at Navan. Mullins has skilfully insinuated Imperial Hills at the foot of the 3.10 line-up with the top-notch Townend boy aboard. Each way. Catch Me (2.0) – a better horse in every way this year, according to his trainer – and Bensalem (1.05 Leicester) go in my Daq Multiples: the defection of Helpston has forced Bensalem in to odds on, or I was going to have an individual bet on him. I’ve had three 16-1 winners recently (I’d have had another one yesterday if I’d known Notre Pere would be that price) and it makes you search them out, instead of winkling out the horses and being pleasantly surprised at the prices. The one I thought I’d found was the unexposed Fire And Rain (2.35) on the grounds that Emma Lavelle has the top-weight, Phar Again, but – for the first time over fences - puts a senior jockey on Fire And Rain off 10st 4lb. However, Betdaq backers got there before me: after picking off the offers at bigger prices, they have forced him in to 7.6 second favourite behind 5.0 Phar Again. That makes the stable a short price to win it; too short for me. The Belvoir Novices’ Chase – pronounce it ‘beaver’ – has cut up, leaving the Bensalem team of King and Thornton with a double chance via Minella Four Star (3.05), who returns to the course and distance of a decent debut over fences. I’m not a fan of ‘Choc’ Thornton’s handicap-hurdle ride, Dunaskin (3.35); pronounce it ‘done asking’ and stop asking now! OK, he’s run well in good company, including fourth in the November Handicap, but his strike rate in the last four years is one win from 36 races, and that was when given a soft lead in first-time cheekpieces (not worn since) for a poor contest at Pontefract. He’s already a beaten favourite over hurdles by one of today’s rivals, Red Admiral; that was among six seconds since that Flat win (never a good sign) and I don’t think the turn around in weights is any guarantee of a turn around in the placings. Matuhi has aimed high recently; Mujamead is a useful tool; and Kadouchski has improved out of plating class. All have decent chances, so I’d be looking for at least 4-1 the field. But, for me, the key horse in the race is Silent Wind, having his first run for Gary Moore: I can see him going off like a scalded cat (no soft lead for Dunaskin, then). That’s how he won a novice hurdle at Clonmel by 24 lengths.   I’m not saying he’ll last out but I can’t imagine that his new trainer will want to disappoint him; quite the reverse, he’ll want him to enjoy himself and he’ll want him to have a good ‘blow.’ I’m laying the favourite, Dunaskin, and having a tickle on Silent Wind. There’s no pace on in the 2.15 at Lingfield but the last time Group performer Naomh Geileis – 7.8 on Betdaq this morning – was in ordinary company, she went for broke, and made all in her maiden. There was 3.15 a place in the six-runner field when I looked. Gary Moore and Jemma Marshall have a good chance of picking up the claimer with Smokey Rye (12.45), a tail-swisher but seemingly genuine enough.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win and place NAOMH GEILEIS (2.15 Lingfield) BANKER 10pts win NEPTUNE COLLONGES (2.35 Leopardstown) BET 2pts win and place IMPERIAL HILLS (3.10 Leopardstown) LAY to win 10pts DUNASKIN and 1pt win and place SILENT WIND (3.35 Leicester) BET 6pts win MINELLA FOUR STAR (3.05 Leicester) BANKER 10pts win THE BISCUIT CLUB (3.40 Leopardstown) DAQ MULTIPLES: Bensalem (1.05 Leicester) and Catch Me (2.00 Leopardstown) with Neptune Collonges, Minella Four Star and The Biscuit Club, charged to the account as 1pt win doubles.
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Ireland's Eye - Sunday 28 December

The second day of Christmas racing brought more joy with a hat trick of winners and a 2 pt profit overall on the day through Herecomesthetruth (7/4), Quel Esprit (5/4-4/5) and Ravens Run (2-15/8).

We will mainly concentrate in Ireland today but there are a couple of interesting former pointers in England which can hopefully further fill the Christmas sack. 

Sunday 28 December

Charlie Egerton takes former Crecora runner up You Never Said to Catterick in the 12-25 2m mdn hurdle opener and the 5yo who was second to impressive Park scorer Kangaroo Court can open his account following his recent third placing where he was ridden like a speed type. With more positive tactics he could prove superior to fine bumper winner Stagecoach Pearl.

Bensalem – another former pointer has made a bright start to his career in England by landing a bumper and hurdle in style and he can go further up the ladder by claiming the 1-05 at Leicester a 2n extended 2m 4f nov hdl – an admittedly competitive affair under Choc Thornton for Alan King. Course and distance winner Helpston rates the chief danger.

We have always subscribed to the view that former pointer Trafford Lad can go to the top over fences and he puts his unbeaten record in this sphere on the line in the Grade 1 3m novice in Leopardstown at 1-30. He once again renews rivalry with Siegemaster who was hindered by a slipped saddle on their last encounter but the selection can be seen in better light on better ground and the ground at the Dublin venue seemingly in riding on the good side. A confident vote is awarded to Dusty Sheedy charge.

The centrepiece of the days card is the Lexus Chase and here Paul Nicholls will be looking for a change of luck at this meeting having seen two of his charges mugged in the last couple of days. His Neptune Collonges will be all the rage here under Ruby Walsh and the Gold Cup third must hold a leading chance but we will buck the trend and afford a tentative vote to Jonjo O'Neills Exotic Dancer who has the benefit of a couple of runs under his belt and himself is just short of the top over the larger obstacles. Though he has not tasted success for some time he could just edge it over the favourite who often needs his first outing and in addition he has the assistance of Tony McCoy.

At Limerick there is a fascinating Grade 3 novice hurdle with six last time out winners in contention for the 2m 6f novice event at 1-45. Though Colm Murphys Future All Star is short on experience there was a lot to like about his Fairyhouse win last time and the runner up there was just touched off at this venue two days ago. The main danger could come from the Mouse Morris runner Browns Baily who looks a chasing type in the making and he opened his account in fair style last time also. There are several more with chances here but these two against the field will do. 

ADVICE
BENSALEM – 8pts win – saver 2pts win Helpston 1-05 Leicester
YOU NEVER SAID – 6pts win – saver 2pts win Stahecoach Pearl 12-25 Catterick
TRAFFORD LAD – 10pts win 1-30 Leopardstown
EXOTIC DANCER – 5pts win 2-35 Leopardstown
NEPTUNE COLLONGES – lay to lose 6pts 2-35 Leopardstown
FUTURE ALL STAR – 4pts win – saver 3pts win Browns Baily 1-45 Limerick
CATCH ME – lay to lose 6pts Leopardstown 2-00

DAQMAN on SATURDAY

Saturday 27 December DAQMAN landed his third 16-1 winner in four racing days when he picked Orki Des Aigles (won 16-1) for the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen yesterday. This followed Lago (won 16-1) on Sunday and True Britannia (won 16-1) on Monday. But the day finished in the red, ending his winning-days sequence at seven out of 10 with one break-even. Today Daqman is ahead of the game as he picks a 14.0 trade to take on Master Minded in the Champion Chase and nominates his Champion Bumper winner. It’s all part of today’s top-class racing from Chepstow, Kempton and Leopardstown. Kauto Star has sent Paul Nicholls soaring past Nicky Henderson in the trainers’ table but more important for punters is his strike rate of just under 30%. With Henderson on 25%, their followers could boast equally: I made my fortune on him in the 2008-9 season. The old adage of ‘never chase your losses’ is out of the window, as backers are able to rely on them to bounce back from any reverses. Jonjo ‘Neill, David Pipe and now Nigel Twiston Davies have gone into the doldrums, which is why my original fancy, Beat The Boys – now 26.0 - has beat a retreat in the betting for the Welsh Grand National. Glasker Mill (36.0) and Cornish Sett (42.0) are friendless, despite their form claims, and Darkness and Joe Lively are easy to back in a market which is usually indicative of today’s winner, and is an even more valuable guide in a seemingly open year. Lose those with severe penalties, and you are left having to dutch Nenuphar Collonges, Mon Mome and Officier De Reserve. Even at best odds, there isn’t much value to be squeezed out of that. So it is that, if I must choose, I will rely on Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh, firstly because Nicholls himself has made his choice from 10 possibles for this but, most importantly, I can rely on him to win in this situation enough times for me to make a profit in the longer term at the 9.4 Officier De Reserve this morning. In fact, Nicholls is going to bankroll me for the bet: his Pepite De Soleil (2.40) and Michel Le Bon (3.20 Chepstow) are both strongly fancied. Right now, ‘Pepite’ looks the main danger to Zaynar in the Triumph Hurdle: her win at Wincanton last time out was simply breathtaking; she barely needed to come out of second gear. Walkon chased home Zaynar at Newbury without making the winner work too hard and he has to give 7lb to the Nicholls horse. The form of the cracking bumper in which Michel le Bon was third last season has been franked a plenty, notably by the winner, Shalone, who looks one of this season’s leading novices. My man has been impressed by Michel Le Bon’s progress on the Ditcheat gallops and rates him a candidate for either the Ballymore Properties or the Spa hurdles at Cheltenham. Another Nicholls’ favourite, Pennellis looked a future winner over course and distance but, for me, will make a price for Peveril (3.50): his stable companion Burton Port won earlier in the week when Peveril was the strongest message. The Presenting gelding runs here instead at a value 5.9 each way, with Hong Kong Harry also supported against the favourite. Tony McCoy should carry the Ditcheat flag well in several rides at Kempton but, in the big race, the Desert Orchid Chase, I fancy the Henderson yard to turn them over. Twist Magic (3.15) has become disappointing and today he faces two exciting types: Takeroc, for me, was going better than Twist Magic when making a mistake three out in the Tingle Creek and was still going better when Twist Magic fell. But the bet of the race is Petit Robin. How could you not be impressed by his Newbury triumph; he just jumped his rivals into submission and he wasn’t stopping. He looked a class apart, beating some smart horses in that contest and I’m convinced he is the danger to Master Minded in the Champion Chase. Take the 14.0 for Cheltenham before today’s race. If anything happens to the ‘Master’, you’ll be on the new favourite. At Leopardstown, Dun Doire (2.25) has been readied for the staying hurdle, around two stone below his chase mark; he will love the ground and is a strong win-and-place bet at 6.2. My man in Ireland, who gave me Cousin Vinny as the bumper horse to follow last season, this year gives a confident vote to Quel Esprit (3.40).
TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win and place OFFICIER DE RESERVE (2.05 Chepstow) BET 3pts win and place DUN DOIRE (2.25 Leopardstown) BET 6pts win PEPITE DE SOLEIL (2.40 Chepstow) LAY to win 10pts TWIST MAGIC and 6pts win PETIT ROBIN (3.15 Kempton) BET 6pts win MICHEL LE BON (3.20 Chepstow) BET 6pts win QUEL ESPRIT (3.40 Leopardstown) BET 3pts win and place PEVERIL (3.50 Chepstow) DAQ MULTIPLES: Michael le Bon, Petit Robin, Pepite De Soleil and Quel Esprit, charged to the account as 1pt win doubles. ANTE-POST: 1pt win PETIT ROBIN (Champion Chase, Cheltenham)
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Ireland's Eye - Saturday 27 December

The Christmas pudding was washed down with a fine haul of winners yesterday with 4 winning bets yielding a profit of 11 points in total.

Selection Box (7/2-10/3) opened our account and that was followed by Breedsbreeze (9/4-15/8) while we also succeeded in getting the warm favourite Tatenen beaten (just) in Leopardstown. In addition our main choice Quiscover Fontaine (7/4-6/4) obliged while we were just touched off by Well Covered with Hampshire Express (5/1).


Saturday 27 December

Former useful pointer Herecomesthetruth made amends last time in Taunton after 'blotting his copybook' in Cheltenham previously and he can make it a double for the Paul Nicholls/Ruby Walsh combination in the extended 2m 3f hc chase in Chepstow at 12-55. Another Irish pointer Presenting Copper who loves it around here rates the main danger.

Though the 3-20 the 2m 4f maiden hurdle looks quite tricky it may pay off to follow the same trainer with the Paddy Brennan ridden King Fontaine to score on his fourth effort under Rules. Though he proved no match for the useful Bensalem last time in a decent heat he can score at generous odds from former Dromahane point winner Threatening To Pay and likely favourite and stablemate Michel Le Bon.

Paul Nicholls had a fine day yesterday and those harbouring doubts about the stable were put in their place – though their was disappointment when Tatenen was touched off in Leopardstown. However there could be consolation in store at the Foxrock venue today when his Natal (Sam Thomas) can land the Grade 1 2m 4f chase at the expense of Mansony who is going for back to back wins. Though this fellow can be hard to catch this represents a good opportunity and at the likely odds he can prove the answer.

The Paddy Power hc ch in Leopardstown at 3-00 with a maximum field looks a typically wide open affair and may not be everyones 'cup of tea' but we will take on the field with a couple of possible progressive sorts in Dante Hall and Bridge Run. Tommy Stacks Dante Hall should be suited by ground/trip while Noel Meades former pointer Bridge Run could yet confirm his earlier promise after opening his account over fences last time and he is just given the nod at big odds.

Indeed it could be a good day for the Meade yard as the former Dundrum point winner Quel Esprit can land the bumper at the expense of the obvious danger West Of The Border from the Willie Mullins camp. This fellow will relish the ground and the former Any Slattery inmate landed a 'punt' on his only subsequent start and he should be capable of landing this event.

At Limerick there is an interesting extended 2m 3f hc ch at 2-50 where Freds Benefit just gets the nod to continue Willie Mullins good run. He came down at the second last at this meet last year with victory 'in the bag' but though high enough in the weights he can see off Marhaba Million off bottom weight and Gripit N Tipit.

The 2m 6f novice chase at 3-20 can see former point winner Ravens Run open his account over the larger obstacles. Though his form figures do not indicate it he has shaped with a degree of promise in starts over fences of late and from the inform Philip Fenton yard he can prove the answer here from Major Hayward. 

ADVICE
HERECOMESTHETRUTH – 6pts win – 3pt saver Presenting Copper 12-55 Chepstow
KING FONTAINE 4pts win – saver 2pts win Threatening To Pay 3-20 Chepstow
NATAL – 6pts win – saver 3pts win Mansony 1-20 Leopardstown
BRIDGE RUN 3pts win – saver 2pts win Dante Hall 3-00 Leopardstown
QUEL ESPRIT – 6pts win – saver 2pts win West Of The Border 3-40 Leopardstown
FREDS BENEFIT – 4pts win - saver 2pts win Marhaba Million 2-50 Limerick
RAVENS RUN 6pts win – saver 2pts win Major Hayward 3-20 Limerick