DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 3 December Daqman is in the mood to lay a favourite today, with 173 already on the board from 221 attempts so far. So look out at Plumpton! He also reckons Betdaq layers are giving money away in an earlier race on the same card with 14.5 offers on a course specialist in a six-horse race. His column covers many talking points: early market moves, price checks, systems, trainers traveling, Sam Thomas, the search for value and, not least, the benefits of using your Betdaq sites. Daqman needs just 15 winning bets to reach 1,000, and he’s targeting Sandown Friday and Saturday in a quality weekend ahead. So, if Marketwatch on the Racing Post site is simplistic, where do you go for a closer look at early betting moves? The answer is under your nose: one click away on the Betdaq betting site. Most-backed horses on Marketwatch early doors this morning were Jeepstar (299 bets), Heavenly Chorus and Tide Slider (207 each). I did a quick Refresh right away on Betdaq’s Win Market for the 12.15 Catterick and found the pair with 207 bets each, Tide Slider and Heavenly Chorus, were both running in that race, trading 3.6 and 13.5 respectively. Obviously some bets are more equal than others! In the betting odds comparison tables, I could see the movement of betting in the Trading History of the top three protagonists and under All Odds, I would be able to compare offers between Betdaq and 10 bookmakers later on. Jeepstar was 3.95 favourite in the 12.35 Plumpton but the Historic Odds table on Betdaq suggested no flood of bets; he had done no more than hold his trading price between 9pm last night and 7.30am this morning with, in fact, a slight trend against him after that up to 9am. By that time, in the Betdaq site’s Price Check, the first book on the race was up alongside Betdaq for comparison, showing a take-out of more than 25% where the overround on the Betdaq trades was only 12%. Nothing unusual there, then. Bill, my local anorak, is already betting blind on Marketwatch: he backed the top two prime movers yesterday and got a winner, Spic ‘N Span at 7-4. But today has baffled him: should he back Jeepstar because its odds tally with the table’s implication, that it has taken most bets this morning; or should he back Heavenly Chorus because its Betdaq trade of 13.5 appears to be terrific value, taken against the high volume of moves? I first worried about Bill when, invited for supper one winter night, I saw on his racing bookshelf: “101 Winning Systems.” He said he was sorry there was no fire in the hearth; he’d forgotten to buy firelighters (I thought I’d seen some on the bookshelf). Once more unto the breach: at least we’ve got racing despite the inspections (by the way, the result of those inspections was up on the Sporting Life website long before the Racing Post’s). Pauntley Gofa (2.50 Catterick), traveling North from Dorset to Yorkshire to get the top of the ground, has been running into form at his local tracks, Exeter and Wincanton, and more recently Lingfield. Like Sam Thomas, Bobby On The Beat (3.40 Plumpton) is said by his trainer to have wanted a bit more time; and, like Sam who rides him, ‘Bobby’ is highly regarded by the Paul Nicholls team and his work at home suggests he is far better than he’s shown. Maybe Sam will already have broken the hoodoo on Bill’s bet and the Marketwatch number-one mover, Jeepstar (12.35); the obvious danger, Postmaster, is heavily penalized and the soft ground may be against him. Will Sam’s mounts be weaker in the market because of his temporary demise? It’s the slenderest of edges but, with two decent chances, I’ll bet that he gets one winner (see my tips list below). The 2.10 looks a two-horse race between Keltic Moon and Amble Forge, but Keltic Moon’s win at Towcester – a very different track to Plumpton – was a one-off and run in an awfully slow time, and Amble Forge is stepping up half a mile in trip to try to complete the hat-trick before the handicapper catches up with him in the revised ratings on Saturday. That might just let in track specialist The Hardy Boy, 5lb lower now than for the fourth of his course-and-distance successes. I traded 14.5 The Hardy Boy this morning when I was offered only 1.73 Amble Forge. Layers, you are giving money away, guys! Are you honestly telling me that I can have 13 throws that a situation like The Hardy Boy’s in this race will not come up for me at least once in a race of only six runners? There’s another odds-on favourite in the claimer: Albany (2.40) is a sporting lay. I won’t lose much if I’m wrong and there are two factors that say I’m right. Firstly, Albany’s wins since he came out of the novice stage have all been over 2m 6f plus; secondly, so far, he hasn’t stayed sound for more than a couple of races and never ever put two back-to-back wins together. I’ve got one or two others on my side: Wildbach (in good form) and -more of a wild card - Chance Card; he ran a stinker first time over UK hurdles but he also did that before making all the running in his last French victory; I got 9.0 Wildbach and 14.0 Chance Card. It looks that sort of race. Cabopino (6.50 Kempton) badly needed her debut run and was given too much to do last time. Karl Burke’s horse has reportedly improved at home and is well drawn in a poor maiden. If she doesn’t make it, she’ll be set up for a handicap next time. Jamie Spencer has another big chance with a rare David Pipe AW runner, Casual Style (7.50) who has most to fear from three-runs-and-into-a-nursery Efficiency, whose stable had a similar winner last week.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place THE HARDY BOY and 2pts saver AMBLE FORGE (2.10 Plumpton) BET 1pt win and place PAUNTLEY GOFA (2.50 Catterick) LAY to win 10pts ALBANY (2.40 Plumpton), and 1pt win and place on each WILDBACH and CHANCE CARD BET 3pts win JEEPSTAR (12.35 Plumpton), if lose 6pts win BOBBY ON THE BEAT (3.40 Plumpton). BET 2pts win and place CAPOBINO (6.50 Kempton) BET 3pts win on each CASUAL STYLE and EFFICIENCY (7.50 Kempton)
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