DAQMAN on Tuesday
|
| |
|
Tuesday 2 December But racing is tricky today, ‘a dicey affair’ like jumping into ‘deep bramble’, says Daqman, hinting at his bets. In his column, Daqman looks at value and what the newspapers, statistics and ‘information’ can do for your trading expertise. Marketwatch. An aspect of the new Racing Post website I was most looking forward to. But it only served to confuse the punter in me this morning. As a Fleet Street racing editor I used to know would say of some glossy new feature: very good but what does it mean? The ‘most backed’ are listed with the number of bets and I was immediately wanting to ask: since when? with whom? how much? As I write, I am looking at 161 bets on each of Satwa Street (2.00 Lingfield) and Spic ‘N Span (11.50 Southwell), and 115 bets on Blistering (3.10 Hereford). They are the top three. Yet none of the three had been made favourite or shrunk remarkably in the markets that were open. In fact, all were easy-to-back second or third favourites on Betdaq at that time: Spic ‘N Span 5.2 against 2.71 offers about the favourite; Satwa Street 5.1 with the favourite trading 2.23; and Blistering 3.0 against the market leader’s 1.88. Is that simply because Betdaq is best value? The favourites in each race are clearly very strong, so is the ‘most backed’ simply a totting up of small bets by punters who always oppose the favourites? Of course, it was early doors and it’s early days. All input to our racing knowledge is useful if it makes sense: as I’ve said or implied many times in this column, information and statistics – including in this column itself – are an adjunct to your own opinion with one single purpose at the front of your mind: what price should this horse be to make it a value bet? My man says that Maid Of Ailsa (11.50 Southwell) is rightfully favourite over Spic ‘n’ Span: in fact, this ‘most backed’ is only third in; North South Divide is second best in the market as I write. Most of the top yards in Newmarket are closed or on a slow down but William Haggas has a few still in training and Maid Of Ailsa has been working nicely at home for the last couple of weeks. In need of the run at Lingfield last time out, she stayed on okay but blew up around a furlong out and lost third place to North South Divide. I expect the switch to Southwell and improved fitness to turn round those placings. Satwa Street, on the other hand, is unlikely to change places with his Wolverhampton conqueror, Rulesn’regulations (2.00 Lingfield), on what we saw that day and the step up in trip should be in the favourite’s favour. I would take any odds against. Blistering v. Finney (3.10 Hereford) is the most intriguing. Finney has hurdling experience and my man in the long grass tells me there is better to come. But Finney is trading at 1.88 on Betdaq as I write and, whereas 2.19 Rules ‘n Regulations is value to me in a four-horse race in which he’s already comprehensively beaten his main market rival, I can’t have odds-on Finney in a 15-strong field where the second favourite is an unknown quantity but is from a top stable, has won two bumpers and is described by his trainer in these terms: “Saves his best for the track, is a natural over hurdlers and could be anything” (according to the Racing Post’s stable tour). Pause for breath. Finney could well win; Rules n’Regulations could ‘get beat.’ But you can only back them if the price is right. It’s your decision. You are getting the fairest possible trades on Betdaq; on a level playing field. If you play the right horse at the right time, you can make your punting pay. Of all the information on their new website, and of all the words in their newspaper this morning, the Racing Post contains a single paragraph worth cutting out and sticking on the edge of your computer screen; it’s in the extract from Dave Nevison’s new book. He says: ’I have known several bright people who have a thorough understanding of prices in the market they work in, and wouldn’t dream of paying 25% above their target price for a product, yet don’t seem to appreciate that the same principles apply in the betting market.’ To put you in the picture, Nevison is complaining that one of his ‘putter-oners’ got 11-4 when he wanted 7-2. Yes, it’s that crucial. Dicey Affair (2.30 Lingfield) is probably the bet that eponymously sums up the day, and current trading on the race sums up the punter’s predicament. You are faced with a race in which three of the six horses are first time in a handicap; and their trainers are Ed Dunlop (doesn’t hurry them); Jeff Pearce (likes a touch); and Gary Moore (leading trainer at the track). Now look at the market: 3.65, 3.95, 4.2, 4.6. My verdict: run for your life and the greater safety of your wallet. But my job is to tip and give interesting advice, so I have to dip my toe into this shallow field which hides such a deep pool of uncertainty; here’s the best I can do: Dicey Affair caught the eye over 6f at Newbury, staying on well, and she had been given plenty to do on only her third start last time out. Stepping up to a mile today, she looks quite well handicapped on the basis of her Newbury run. Oh the racing was and is such dross yesterday and today, when I’m so close to my 1,000 winners! Some of these animals might as well be running backwards. The Tizzards have thought of that. They had a winner yesterday with Enroblim Trop (the name of their home village, Milborne Port, reversed). Justabout (12.40 Hereford) could go well for them today: forget his form before the course-and-distance second last time out (four of today’s field behind); he always did need fences. Nothing else was backed in the race early doors, except of course Folie A Deux. Justabout was 7.0 with only two fancied, then. Things will change I’m sure but that looked about right to me, certainly for an each-way bet: eulav doog, in fact. Experience is not so important in bumpers; there’s no hurdles expertise to pit against your debutant rivals. And, though the Tizzards (Song Sung Blue) look good again, with Swansbrook the main threat, I promised myself I’d follow Varekai; from the Deep Bramble family and 13.5 on Betdaq as I write. On second thoughts, deep bramble is just as good an epithet for the day’s racing as dicey affair. Unless you’re Brer Rabbit! | |
| TODAY'S BETS | |
|
BET 4pts win MAID OF AILSA (11.50 Southwell) | |
|
| |
 |
Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More |
Comments