DAQMAN on Monday

Monday 1 December BOMB! After 70 winning bets in 20 days, Daqman failed to find a winner yesterday. He still needs 17 wins to reach 1,000 in the 13 months of his column, and he needs 27 more successful lays for the 200. Three win-and-place bets reached the first three and Rebel Chief (2nd 13-2), an early double-figure price, and looking likely to score over the last two hurdles at Fairyhouse, could be counted as a winning each-way bet for some. But Daqman’s account only includes clear-cut profits for all, even though this means he often loses out at SP. Today, he plays the hurdles short-shots in Daq Multiples but finds an each-way banker on AW at Wolverhampton, first time in a handicap. It happens to the best and it happens to the rest, and the consolation for a losing day in racing is that there’s always tomorrow. The long-term view is what makes a punter successful: winnings must outweigh losses, based on the mathematical certainty that value is the winner over time. Sam Thomas should also take the rough with the smooth and, I wouldn’t like to be Paul Nicholls seeking advice from Sir Alex Ferguson. If any man, and any team, is facing a crisis of confidence it’s Sir Alex Ferguson and Man U. Yesterdays’ teetering 1-0 win, but a fortuitous defeat for Chelsea, just saved them from the inevitable: any more slip-ups and, taking that long-term view mathematically, they can’t win the title. It’s not the big clubs that worry the fans: Man U meet every one of their top-of-the-table rivals at home for the rest of the season. No it’s the next month that will call it: Sunderland, Tottenham (away), Stoke (away) and Middlesborough must all bring maximum points from sides that will expend every ounce of energy on trying to topple the champions. I predict they’ll lose a point or three somewhere, just as I would be confident that Paul Nicholls’ fabulous 30% strike rate must include losing races for one or more of the best in his team. It is not, definitely not, shock-horror unexpected drama; quite the reverse. It’s only what is to be expected and, for both Kauto Star and Big Bucks, was predictable; ‘Kauto’ was in the same strange mood early season last year, chancing his fences, before he settled down. And I said in my Saturday column that I wouldn’t want to be on Big Bucks at the price: first Pipe now Nicholls want to pit five-year-olds against hardened and experienced rough-and-tumble campaigners in the big races. Shouldn’t we be praising Sam Thomas for getting Big Bucks as far as he did, with that last fence a bridge too far? Every punter, including yours truly, who swerved a bet on Big Bucks is thankful he had his own crisis of confidence, and that he had it before the race. The biggest mistake a backer can make is that he can’t possibly know more than the trainer and jockey. Jockeys are the world’s worst tipsters and trainers make many mistakes of planning and preparation. Just like Fergy, it’s how few they make – and how much money their owners spend - that decides whether they are champions. It’s dross today, but a few Daq Multiples will keep our interest going over the sticks, and there’s a win-and-place banker on the AW. At Fakenham, Tom Dascombe saddles a rare runner over hurdles: 75-rated Flat performer Gross Prophet (12.50) was a good 10-furlong stayer and he’s reportedly schooled nicely at home ahead of his hurdling debut. Gross Prophet couldn’t be in better hands than those of the former number-two at Martin Pipe’s; since returning from South Africa, he has emerged as one of the most promising young trainers in the country. Afsoun (1.20) was not impressive on his chasing debut but the Henderson horses have looked in much better form since: Afsoun may find this sharp two miles far from ideal here but he should maintain his superiority over Kings Quay, a lesser hurdler.  Tim Vaughan’s team is flying with, currently, a 50% place record, and Little Shilling (1.50) faces poor opponents with only two hurdles wins among them. Freeze The Flame (2.50) is also a candidate for your Daq Multiples, having run well on his comeback behind Saturday’s winner Duc De Regniere, and Spanchil Hill (2.00) is ‘expected’ at Folkestone. We’ve successfully opposed novices with a penalty once or twice already and The Old Pretender (1.30), an impressive bumper performer, has reportedly schooled very smartly at home and receives 7lb off the King horse. Awesome George’s winning form took a bit of a dent when the second was well beaten on Saturday. King can get one back with Valleyofthedolls (3.30), an impressive winner of her first bumper and now taking in one which the trainer tries to win for the third time in four years. The daughter of Kings Theatre should be happy with the slow conditions on breeding. Over at Wolverhampton, Dayia (3.40) was a bumper winner earlier in the season and has had three ‘easies’ over inadequate trips. She is working really well at home with an 82-rated companion so the 69 makes her well handicapped. Generous Star (3rd last week) and Sabre Light (won yesterday) give the impression the yard is in good enough form and she is a banker each-way.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win GROSS PROPHET (12.50 Fakenham) BET 4pts win THE OLD PRETENDER (1.30 Folkestone) BET 6pts win VALLEYOFTHEDOLLS (3.30 Folkestone) EACH-WAY BANKER 5pts win and place DAYIA (3.40 Wolverhampton) DAQ MULTIPLES: Afsoun (1.20 Fakenham), Little Shilling (1.50 Fakenham), Spanchil Hill (2.00 Folkestone) and Freeze The Flame (2.50 Fakenham), charged to the account as 1pt win doubles.
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