DAQMAN on Friday
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Friday 5 December Roll on, Cheltenham! A Gold Cup winner and fourth, a Sun Alliance winner, and two placed in the Ryanair; that’s the recent record of winners of the Future Stars Chase at Sandown. Every one of today’s five runners will surely win races and weeding them out is like discarding prize blooms from a winter garden: first to go would be Abbeybraney and Barbers Shop on the grounds that I would transplant them to different races. Abbeybrainey, though runner-up to Troytown winner, Noble Pere, and getting a pull in the weights, is still a maiden over fences; Barbers Shop, second in the Paddy Power, and already quoted 22-1 on Betdaq for the Ryanair, is in unknown territory, stepped up to the three miles. Ornais looks a formidable top weight: Battlecry has beaten Roll Along and Ornais has beaten Battlecry twice. But, on recent form, and form where it matters (the Cheltenham Festival), Roll Along has gone clear in the ratings. The Sun Alliance runner-up started his season by beating the subsequent Hennessy second, Air Force One, gets 6lb from Ornais, and is regarded as a fine Gold Cup prospect by Carl Llewellyn. On Raglan Road (2.00) also looks Cheltenham bound: he is considered the next Tidal Bay by the Howard-Johnson operation and his win at Aintree was impressive. I’ll put him in my Daq Multiples but, for a solo win bet, he’s a very short price and I’m tempted by the 10.0 on offer on Betdaq about Grizebeck. If it develops into a scrap, ‘Raglan’ will find Grizebeck a do-or-die opponent. As I said about The Hardy Boy earlier in the week, I look at it like this. I think that more than once in the nine chances of a 10.0 trade, a Grizebeck will beat a ‘Raglan’, but I have no leeway with the favourite: either I try to ‘buy money’ in a one-off situation or I don’t. I won’t. There’s a similar situation at Exeter with Franchoek (1.00), another leading light for Cheltenham, judged on his Triumph Hurdle second; his problem is giving weight to Hector’s Choice but this time there is no margin for error in the odds with both horses vying for favouritism at cramped trades. The free-running Doubly Guest should set up the race for the front two: she folded tamely over two miles at Ascot, and today’s extra distance has to be a major concern. Hectors Choice’s Newbury win was in a conditionals’ race so he is excused a 6lb penalty. But Franchoek surely has better gears and known stamina: he was not fully wound up for his return at Ascot and kept on in the closing stages under tender handling. Reports suggest he has improved nicely since and the stiff trip should really suit: connections feel 2m 4f is the minimum for him nowadays. It’s the biggest field they’ve had for the Devon marathon, with Nick Williams two out of the last three but relying on last year’s winner, The Risky Viking, whose sole success that was. The stats say you can’t win with more than 11st 8lb, which is like carrying a bag of cement over four miles on heavy ground, and six out of the last seven to succeed were aged nine to 11. Present M’Lord has to beat the hoodoo on favourites a stone higher than he ended last season but Toulouse-Lautrec, runner-up in the race three years ago, is 11lb lower now. I’m having my pound on Waking Ned (2.10), a dour Supreme Leader gelding who has been toughened up in the hunting field with this and similar races in mind and the brilliant Northern claimer James Reveley is down for the ride. I am not being flippant in using the word ‘brilliant’ but I admit it did cross my mind that it might get me an introduction to his gorgeous girlfriends on Facebook. Well, you have to move with the times. I traded some 11.5 Waking Ned but he’s in a couple of points as I write and the word is obviously out. I just hope James gets back safely to enjoy the fruits of his Facebook. We’ve had a couple of winners recently opposing penalized novices and the 2.45 (no winner with more than 11st) and 3.20 none with more than 10.11) look possible target races: Glenwood Knight is another Northern raider with prospects in the hurdle for in-form Donald McCain and Simple Glory has a featherweight in the chase. Simple Glory stayed on up the Towcester hill when distant runner-up to the prolific High Jack, a big step up on his previous effort against the same horse earlier. She was a long way behind the five-time winner Little Shilling when the pair met over hurdles but here she’s steeplechasing in the mud 17lb better off. ’Surprising if she should win her first race for over three years on this occasion’ says the Racing Post spotlight; not at all say Betdaq backers, who have forced her in from 13.5 to 9.5 as I write. At Lingfield, Kings Destiny (12.10) has done enough in his three races to go close again but he isn’t straightforward and threw the towel in last time. Abulharith looks very one paced on the gallops and Albaasha hasn’t had any buttons pressed at home. He is a nice type for the future but Ryan Moore doesn’t beat them up on the debut. I prefer Barwell Bridge from a Great Leighs maiden which has put three eye-catchers in my notebook; Barwell Bridge was still very green in the closing stages but should be straighter now on a track that should suit; he can expose the quirks in the Jarvis horse who is twice a beaten favourite. Formula (1.15) goes into the Daq Multiples after twice running well in good company; the Stoute candidate, Lipi, will help determine the strength of a bet in a race tonight. | |
| TODAY'S BETS | |
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BET 3pts win and place BARWELL BRIDGE (12.10 Lingfield) | |
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