Betdaq Extra

DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 30 November SEVEN UP AGAIN! Daqman scored seven winning bets on Saturday following another seven the day before. When the racing is good, Daqman is good, and he has now hit 38 wins on Saturdays alone this month. His total score for November is 118. Time after time, he’s broken his record for the fastest century of wins (now standing at 24 days) and needs just 17 more to reach 1,000 winning bets in this column, 173 of them successful lays (out of 221). Daqman’s best-priced winner yesterday was a confident vote for Dansant (won 5-1). Once upon a time, there was a trainer called O’Brien who won three Grand Nationals in a row, three consecutive Champion Hurdles and three Derbys in eight years. Aidan, eat your heart out; Vincent was the daddy of them all. In the modern era, Hardy Eustace (2.10) is as close as you’ll get to Vincent O’Brien’s triple hurdles champion, Hattons Grace, whose race he tries to win today: ‘Hardy’ has won two Champion Hurdles, and finished third to Brave Inca and fourth to Sublimity in two more since. Unbeaten on today’s course, he came back to form in the Maplewood and faces his old rival, Brave Inca, in a racing spectacular at Fairyhouse to rival anything we saw yesterday. Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca have almost as many Grade-1s (16 between them) in their careers as Aidan O’Brien’s had Group 1s in a season. But, surely, they must give way to young blood today; since Aidan won this with Istabraq 10 years ago, only Limestone Lad has been aged older than eight. It’s a hard task for the punter to evaluate the form when the old boys won’t lie down but erring on the side of the improver is the number-one rule in form assessment.   Having to defy a 584-day absence, a win for Brave Inca would be a bigger comeback than Hardy Eustace’s in the Maplewood; he’s won only once since he took today’s Hattons Grace in 2006. And ‘Hardy’ hasn’t put back-to-back wins together since 2005. Noel Meade is yer man and his Muirhead (2.10) is the Paul Carberry pick over Aitmatov, though that one won this race last year. Muirhead is said to have improved the proverbial ‘ton’ since last season and, as a course winner on today’s boggy ground who goes well fresh, he will be in his element. He last year won the Royal Bond – second race on today’s card – which is where Hardy Eustace’s great career came to prominence in 2002. Meade also saddles two in that race, and this time maybe Carberry has it wrong. His pick, Fisher Bridge, was on the slide on Betdaq this morning, and stablemate, the grey Donnas Palm, has joined him in trading. But it seems hardly conceivable that either will win against a formidable Willie Mullins duo: Cousin Vinny and Hurricane Fly, who has impressed at both top venues, Punchestown and Auteuil. His hurdles experience could be crucial but, like the Meade stablemates, the Betdaq market can’t split the Mullins pair this morning. I shall take a punt on Cousin Vinny (1.05). Yet another big pointer for the future on this exceptional Fairyhouse card, the Drinmore novices’ chase usually goes to a top-class hurdler, and Tranquil Sea, proven at today’s trip and after a better transition to fences, could reverse the form of a grade-one hurdle at Leopardstown in February when he was beaten by Forpadydeplasterer. But it may be very close. On bad ground, the three-mile hurdle must surely go to a tough lightweight stayer: I’ll have my pound on Rebel Chief (3.10) who fits those criteria with a lower hurdles rating after slamming a field of novice chasers on this course in October by 20 lengths and 20 lengths. He was 12.0 when I checked on Betdaq. If the two cards you are dealt in the Betdaqpoker claiming stakes at Kempton Park are Coole Dodger and Mystic Art, you won’t be too worried about the flop: in a claimer, there’s always the turn card you least expect. But Coole Dodger (3.15), the official top rating, now has Jim Crowley replacing a girl apprentice and Mystic Art looks weighted to reverse previous placings with Sabre Light: at 11.0 and 7.0 respectively on Betdaq with Sabre Light the favourite, I think I’ve drawn the value aces. Tous Les Deux (3.45) has been flying recently and a strong gallop will suit him; best of the bigger trades may be Billberry – 10.5 as I write – who didn’t cut much ice on turf but has acey-deucy AW form, including a quite spectacular win at Lingfield; stable just coming good again. The same yard has William Carson - grandson of Laughing Willie – claiming a valuable 5lb off Welsh Opera in the Bet Multiples-Betdaq Handicap (4.15); the filly found her voice a fortnight ago when switched to sprints. My 5.7 trade on Betdaq gave me a fair deal and I got a very welcome better than evens a place to cover my win stake. My own Daq Multiples today are purely speculative but, after a 5-1 shot among them on Saturday (making possible a 24-1 treble), I’ll put some of my chips back on the table.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 5pts win COUSIN VINNY (1.05 Fairyhouse) BET 5pts win TRANQUIL SEA (1.40 Fairyhouse) BET 2pts win and place MUIRHEAD (2.10 Fairyhouse) BET 1pt win and place REBEL CHIEF (3.10 Fairyhouse) BET 1pt win and place on each COOLE DODGER and MYSTIC ART (3.15 Kempton) BET 3pts win TOUS LES DEUX, and 1pt win and place BILLBERRY (3.45 Kempton) BET 2pts win and place WELSH OPERA (4.15 Kempton) DAQ MULTIPLES: Cousin Vinny, Muirhead, Rebel Chief and Tranquil Sea, all at Fairyhouse, charged to the account as 1pt win doubles.
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DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 29 November DOUBLE-WHAMMY DOUBLE: Daqman raised his game again yesterday with seven winning bets, including a double whammy twice, in each race laying the favourite and backing the winner. He laid Special Reserve (unplaced 5-4 favourite) and named Spouk (won 7-4) as the winner. He laid Riverside Theatre (2nd 4-1) and named Copper Bleu (won 11-4) the winner. That sets up another lays sequence of three out of three, following 14 in a row before he came unstuck on Tuesday, so that makes his run 17 successful out of 18 in three weeks. He now needs only 24 wins to reach 1,000 winning bets since his column began some 13 months ago, and he needs 27 more successful lays for 200. Big Bucks heads the market but today’s Hennessy is more the race of the Big Buts. When a trainer says “if he jumps” - as Paul Nicholls does of today’s favourite – then you must price him up with a big margin for error and, since he’s only five years old, I’m going to have to duck Bucks at the odds available. On Mildmay form, Big Bucks beats Albertas Run and he in turn, on Reynoldstown running, holds Air Force One. But horses aged six and seven, as they are, win the Hennessy year after year (all bar one since 1998). Alberta’s Run represents the Sun Alliance, which has brought Hennessy victory for Denman and Trabolgan in the last three seasons, while Oedipe comes from the Aintree race won by the 2006 winner here, State Of Play. But here come the ‘buts’. Alberta’s Run doesn’t jump well on soft ground and Tony McCoy says the going is ‘a major disappointment’ which could have put the ‘mockers’ on him. Air Force One’s best form is also on good ground and another ‘but’ is that he seems to prefer a right-handed course. Nicky Henderson worries that Oedipe (‘he’s no Trabolgan’) won’t last the trip on his first run of the season. What to do? Well, the Hennessy is always either a Gold Cup or a Grand National, depending on the state of the ground: you really have to be that classy and, or, stay that well. So I reasoned earlier in the week that, if this is a Grand National and not a Gold Cup, then I’d want to be with last year’s Troytown winner Royal County Star; he was an excellent second in the Irish Grand National with this season’s recent Troytown winner, Noble Pere, only third. I got a 32.0 Betdaq trade and ‘Star’ fell to as low as 11-1 in a place; the bookies are now going 14-1 or 16-1 (as I write) but, again, Betdaq is best at 20.0. It’s been a dry night at Newbury and Tony McCoy will be hoping that has put things right but I think it more likely that the going will be ‘sticky.’ Not many will like that; they’ll need weight off their backs to jump out of it. So I’m sticking like glue to the lightweights: Island Flyer is just that; he’s really impressive when ‘airborne,’ and he’s improving all the time. He’s not in the same league as Big Bucks and Albertas Run on form but 21lb difference in weight is an equalizer on tacky ground, putting him bang there to take advantage of the ‘buts.’ After all that, class will out, and it may be a Gold Cup after all; but remember when the young bloods lined up for the Betfred at Sandown in April? Monkerhostin – preferred by Richard Johnson over Parsons Legacy today – gave them all a lesson from the old man, and double-figure-aged Caracciola and Hardy Eustace have continued the trend. It’s the most open Hennessy for years, unless there’s a Denman from Ditcheat in there somewhere and my man in the long grass says it’s more likely to be Dear Villez for the Nicholls team than Big Bucks as a horse who stays well, jumps well, keeps on improving and has a jockey on board who will throw everything at him coming to the last. The shape of the race suggests he’ll have plenty of company at that final fence. I wanted to lay American Triology (12.25) this morning: my Ditcheat mole doesn’t fancy him; but neither do you. Betdaq backers have made Cockney Trucker clear favourite this morning in an early-doors gamble. Philip Hobbs’s horses could do no wrong yesterday and Cockney Trucker comes out of a race from which winner, fourth, sixth, eighth and tenth have all won since. That’s solid form which cannot be said of American Trilogy’s Chepstow win or his third at Cheltenham, when he cruised up into contention but folded tamely once put to the sword: horses close up in both races have subsequently been turned over. Hobbs and Johnson again have another top novice, this time a chaser, Calusa Caldera, in the Fulke Walwyn Trophy but, once more, Betdaq backers have created a new favourite in Shouldhavehadthat (1.00). I think the contest for favourite has left Artipreuil (10.0 on Betdaq) and Turbulance (16.0) too big: Artipreuil stays, jumps well and has a willing attitude; Turbulance is a very neat jumper and Noel Chance’s chasers always improve when they go handicapping. If I’m right that the ground will favour the lightweights, then Apocal – laid out for this by Paul Nicholls – will come into it. Nicky Henderson expects big things from Petit Robin (1.35) today; the yard has always regarded him as a smart chaser in the making. But, for a third time this morning, the layers have faced a flood of Betdaq bets robbing me of all the odds against right down to even money. The Long Distance Hurdle is mouth watering; only Kasbah Bliss is missing of the big guns. Alan King feels there will be no repercussions for leaving the headgear off Blazing Bailey today, having seen him win on the Flat without it, but his vast improvement over hurdles came with the application of headgear and, though he’s 4-2 down against Inglis Drever, he had been steadily closing the gap. Petitfour outbattled the strong-travelling Mobaasher at Wetherby; I can take one improver into the top flight but two together from the same race – they were separated by a neck - is not in my betting bible, so I doubt they are good enough at this level. In any case, on a line through The Tother One, Hills Of Aran, a cracking spare ride for in-form Richard Johnson could beat both. Duc De Regniere has Tony McCoy only ‘hopeful’ of a place so I’ll take Hills Of Aran each way: he has gone well here before in competitive races and is a real battler. We have a horse with attitude and a trainer, too: Keith Goldsworthy isn’t afraid to take on the big boys and is reveling in his big chance. There’ll certainly be some reveling tonight if 30.0 on Betdaq is successfully taken, even if only placed behind Inglis Drever. Yet again, I report a morning gamble on Betdaq; you’ve made Khyber Kim favourite for the Gerry Feilden and he was certainly impressive when fresh last term, but Prince Taime (3.45) represents the Hobbs yard which produced a storming win from Copper Bleu yesterday and is reckoned ‘as good as.’ The ‘Prince’ beat Alan King’s Ouzbeck as a novice yet is rated 125 against that one’s 153. King has Squadron in this, fourth in the Greatwood, but Hobbs has a good line to him via Hot Diamond (they were one-two at Cheltenham in April). Dansant (3.25 Kempton) completed a hat-trick of Listed wins last season including this Betdaq Wild Flower Stakes; has been impressing with Bonus in recent spins up the Al Bahathri and loves this track. He badly needed the run last time out when not knocked about. Saptapadi (6.50 Wolverhampton) is one who will go right to the top next Flat season; you read it here first. His work at home with Almuktahem has been impressive in recent weeks and Dale Gibson is a strong enough jockey to get him home on the debut. He won’t be punished first time but you may never get these odds again in an ordinary race: 7.4 on Betdaq this morning.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win COCKNEY TRUCKER (12.25 Newbury) BET 2pts win APOCAL, plus 1pt win and place TURBULANCE (1.00 Newbury) BET 6pts win PETIT ROBIN (1.35 Newbury) BET 8pts win INGLIS DREVER, and 1pt win and place HILLS OF ARAN (2.05 Newbury) BET 2pts win and place ISLAND FLYER, and 1pt win and place ROYAL COUNTY STAR (2.40 Newbury); already ante-post 1pt win Royal County Star at 32.0. BET 3pts win and place DANSANT (3.25 Kempton) EACH-WAY BANKER 5pts win and place PRINCE TAIME (3.45 Newbury) BET 3pts win and place SAPTAPADI (6.50 Wolverhampton) DAQ MULTIPLES: Cockney Trucker, Dansant, Inglis Drever, Petit Robin, Prince Taime, Saptapadi, charged to the account as 1pt win doubles.
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Ed Chamberlin's Weekend Preview

Saturday 29 November

Welcome to ED CHAMBERLIN's regular weekend sporting preview.

As always, the Sky Sports pundit takes a look at the best trading opportunities on BETDAQ across a range of sports.

In this weekend's DAQCAST - Ed's focus is on the big race at Newbury - the Hennessy.

To listen to the DAQCAST simply press play below.

Alan McInally's Weekend Preview

Keep faith with the big man this weekend on what I believe is an attractive coupon that offers traders a serious money making chance on Betdaq.

First up is a very simple selection for me in Martin O'Neill's resurgent and powerful Aston Villa to see off Fulham.  In fairness to the Cottagers seven points from the last nine is an excellent return for a limited team but in Villa they face a side currently sitting in fourth place and looking every inch a quality outfit.  A win away at the Emirates and a draw against bogey team United  combined with a fully fit squad means that Villa are on an all time Premier League high at the moment and they will take some stopping if continuing in this current vein.  Fulham have only scored twice in six away games and that just will not get the job done at Villa Park.  Take the 1.68 on the "Daq" all day long.

On to the brilliant action this Sunday and I suggest you get your laying boots on for Arsenal's visit to Stamford Bridge. The Blues for all of their brilliance away are just not getting the job done at home and in Arsenal they face a talented team with a massive point to prove.  For me this game is exactly the type that the masterful Arsene Wenger thrives on and I fully expect his side to be geared up for such a mighty clash.  Chelsea have yet to secure their last 16 place in the Champions League and their form just isn't that inspiring if you include last week's bore draw against Newcastle.  1.87 on the "Daq" about Phil Scolari's men cannot be value against their bitter rivals and I expect the Gunners to come away with something.

The Manchester Derby has a real edge to it this time around with City on the brink of something very special if the anticipated player investment materialises.  This will be a feast of attacking football and rather than getting terchnical in analysing the merits of both sides I believe there is an obvious and cracking bargain to be had that will let us cheer on all of the great players on show.  Don't get caught up in the huge menu of markets that Betdaq offer on the game - simply pile into the over 2.5 goal quote at 1.88.  I cannot envisage any scenario where goals will not flow in this absolute belter of a game.

DAQMAN on Friday

Friday 28 November After a low-key start to the week, Daqman came back with three winning bets yesterday, posting a warning for another big weekend. He had been hitting four winners and more a day to achieve his recent century breaks of 100 wins in 27 days and then in 24 days. He told you earlier in the week that Richard Johnson would switch to Monkerhostin in Saturday’s Hennessy and to take the 32.0 on Betdaq about Royal County Star, now down to 11-1 with one bookmaker. Yesterday’s advice included: CAROLE’S LEGACY (won 11-4): oppose winning novices with penalties; previous penalized favourites of this race were well beaten. SHAMARI (won 13-8): all the right signs at home; in at a low level and a very interesting prospect. WEDDING LIST (won 11-8): showed the benefit of her recent second when stretching on easily in a gallop on Tuesday morning. One of the best chasers in Paul Nicholls’ yard but you won’t see him at Cheltenham: back him today, and later on at Sandown and Aintree, because Kicks For Free needs two-and-a-half miles. Kicks For Free (2.40) is a ‘natural’; he’s been doing everything at home with ease and any trade better than evens today is a bonus and you can get it on Betdaq this morning as I write. Philip Hobbs’ yard also expects to collect with two good chances in the big-field hurdles: Ballydub (2.05) and Copper Bleu (3.45). The same stable’s Eden Linty beat Miko De Beauchene in last year’s Pertemps qualifier and Ballydub may have most to fear from Galient, who is in the same yard that beat him at Cheltenham with Punchestowns. But that was a cracking effort on Ballydub’s reappearance. Copper Bleu, fifth in the Aintree Champion Bumper, made his return on the same course over further and was not punished after blundering two out. China Gold is highly regarded but his future is over fences and there is a stronger word on the day for Captain Americo (3.45), who got within three lengths of Imsingingtheblues last time he was seen in public. Riverside Theatre is a vulnerable morning favourite, not only under pressure from Copper Bleu and Captain Americo but for his inability to settle over hurdles at home; that’s why he returned in a bumper, and it was a slowly run bumper at that, with the close second, Abbevillian, only third in a ‘soft’ race here yesterday, and the fourth horse eighth, beaten a long way, at Taunton. French Derby pretensions – he was second in a top trial, the Prix Noailles – and his trainer’s description (“very exciting”) suggest that Mount Helicon (1.00) is a must for your Daq Multiples. At Lingfield, Spouk (1.20), who ran up to a special horse in Shemali last time, has already scared the life out of his rivals: there has been a flood of money, forcing the filly with a 5-1 paper forecast in to 3.5 on Betdaq.  Blessing, who has had her problems and is not straightforward (a history of bleeding explains why she finds little for pressure) has weakened in the market but Special Reserve remains favourite. I’m taking him on, with his eight places from 12 runs suggesting that he is no leader: ‘not clear run,’ ‘not quicken’ and ‘never going the pace’ when put together indicate an animal that doesn’t want to win. But ‘not clear run, kept on steadily’ is an encouraging report from one of three maidens which now put Musigny (1.55) into a lowly Lingfield handicap for the first time, with Michael Hills booked: I bet to win at 9.6 on Betdaq with place insurance at 2.6. Wedding List won comfortably for us last night at Great Leighs and her win signalled how much more to stake on the same stable’s The Magic Of Rio (5.50 Kempton); the speedy filly should be in a different league to her rivals over her ideal trip and her work at home has been particularly pleasing. Wedding List had been working just in behind The Magic Of Rio, and if you had stopped last night’s race at the furlong pole before she sauntered to a comfortable win, Wedding List was a good five lengths clear. I was going to lay Tarruji (6.20) but you’ve been busy doing that already; you have opposed Dimander, too, and Rebel City now leads the Betdaq market from Choisharp. Watch out for Pepin in a handicap shortly. There’s a steep descent by Aeroplane (8.50) from Group-2 via Listed, to Class-2, and now down to a Class-3 handicap tonight, with his rating dropped from 102 to 90. Once a serious horse with Peter Chapple-Hyam, he continues to work smartly at home: morning glory or did his recent spin with Red Alert Day confirm the old ability is still there? And can Hayley Turner work her magic, where Jamie Spencer, Dane O’Neill, Joe Fanning and Alan Munro have all failed. The price is right.
TODAY'S BETS
LAY to win 10pts SPECIAL RESERVE and 5pts win SPOUK (1.20 Lingfield) BET 3pts win and 2pts place MUSIGNY (1.55 Lingfield) BET 6pts win BALLYDUB (2.05 Newbury) BANKER 10pts win KICKS FOR FREE (2.40 Newbury) LAY to win 10pts RIVERSIDE THEATRE and 3pts win on each CAPTAIN AMERICO and COPPER BLEU (3.45 Newbury) BET 8pts win THE MAGIC OF RIO (5.50 Kempton) BET 1pt win and place AEROPLANE (8.50 Kempton) DAQ MULTIPLES; Ballydub, Kicks For Free, Mount Helicon (1.00 Newbury), Spouk and The Magic Of Rio, charged to the account as 1pt win doubles.
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DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 27 November Daqman’s form has dipped in midweek, just when he’d hit his fastest century of winners in only 24 days. He has something to say in his column about those days when you choose the wrong one of two. But he now needs only 34 more winning bets to reach 1,000 in around 13 months. And he still restored his fantastic run of lays yesterday, bringing his current sequence to 15 out of 16 in style when he bagged an odds-on shot. His latest victim was North South Divide (2nd 10-11 favourite) at Wolverhampton last night. The next six weeks is the time to oppose winning novices with penalties: they don’t all get beaten but enough that have won weak events in October and November come to better races as favourite at the turn of the year, and lose. Take the three previous runnings of today’s opener at Newbury. In two of those years, odds-on Heltornic (11st 4lb) and Bonchester Bridge (11st 8b), which both came to the race as penalized previous winners, were well beaten as favourites, giving 12lb and 6lb to most in the field. There’s just the 6lb difference today but Carole’s Legacy (12.25) can help restore Nicky Henderson’s strike rate after his six-hit became hit-wicket yesterday: all half dozen –three favourites among them – were beaten in his assault on Kempton Park. In the face of the stats, Over Sixty is no value at 6-4 on this morning and, with 12.0 bar two, the 4.2 trade Carole’s Legacy is a stand-out: simplistically, you’re getting better than 3-1 in a what the market says is a two-horse race. But remember my loss and your gain at the time of writing is that you can follow changes in the market on Betdaq right up to the ‘off’: me, too, but I can’t change either these words or my selections. There could, for instance, be some evens or odds against Over Sixty traded later, with Carole’s Legacy in to say 2.8; where’s the value then? Maybe that would be an opportunity to nip in with a saver on the favourite. On the other hand, Over Sixty might go even shorter, and become a lay. Decide what prices you want and trade accordingly, adjusting your view of the race as the market reshapes. With Betdaq, you already have value, in that you are not betting in a massively overround book so keep up with the exchanges and mix bet and lay with a view to winning the race. Strangely, the majority of punters still want to pick one horse to win, when it is now far easier to pick a race to win. The beginners’ chase is a real exercise for your trading skills: only a handful of runners but most intriguing; A.P. McCoy got into hot water for being too tender with Straw Bear at Cheltenham when Pasco was a close third. At the same time, Pasco ran too freely that day and has taken over as favourite at 1.95 as I write. I immediately grabbed some 2.57 Straw Bear, thinking the favourites might well flip-flop again later on: I would need odds-on Straw Bear to have a comfy bet-and-lay, or I’d take any odds against Pasco as a saver on my Straw Bear trade if that’s the way it goes. Despite the small field, Hi Blue and Thenford Trout could break some Betdaq records for three-figure trades in a five-runner race; well, that’s the way it looks on form: Hi Blue has pulled up five times out of seven and Thenford Trout has been beaten 270 lengths plus in four outings (the ‘plus’ is in the official form). Sure enough, as I write, Hi Blue is 230.0. But Thenford Trout is only 22.0. What do Betdaq punters know that I don’t? Come on lads, you can tell me; I won’t tell anyone. I’m sure this’ll be a quirky trading race all day long. There’s another favourites flip-flop at Newbury this morning, not unexpected and, this time, unlikely to change very much: The Tother One (2.05), who has looked a lot better at home than his workmanlike win at Exeter, has replaced the paper favourite, Tartak. In fact, Gone To Lunch has nipped in between them, and Tartak really isn’t holding up very well at all. I can’t say I was on The Tother One early, but I do think the market as I write is saying that The Tother One will win, since he’s already beaten Gone To Lunch. Philip Hobbs goes for a four-timer in the conditional jockeys’ hurdle with different claimers; Rhys Flint is still awarded 8lb so Hector’s Choice could well be number four if he can master Prideus (3.15); four-year-olds are two out of three in this race and the pair could improve past Kerry’s Girl and Ned Ludd. Trading was light on this one at 5.0 the field as I monitored Betdaq this morning; I got 5.6 Prideus to win with better than evens the place for insurance purposes. I know that Alan King thinks this one has improved physically over the summer, so much so that he might consider going chasing. If we followed a stable in our Daq Multiples today – as we did Nicky Henderson yesterday (!) – it would have to be Paul Nicholls with The Tother One and Pepe Simo (3.45) at Newbury and then Shamari (1.05), The Nightingale (2.15) and Nosler (2.50) at Taunton, though I prefer a mix today (famous last words). Shamari’s race contains a good quota of Flat-breds, not to mention Flat trainers (Eve Johnson Houghton and Mick Channon are joining in the winter game), but Shamari is the best of them, as a son of Sinndar and half brother to Ascot Stakes third, Shamayoun, who won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham a couple of years ago. Shamari would figure high on my horses-to-follow list, expected to take an Ascot, Newbury or Cheltenham novice, but serious illness (developed problems after being gelded) means that he starts at this low level over too short a trip, as a 12-furlong winner on soft ground in France. But Shamari has recovered well and is showing all the right signs at home, and his running style has always been one of confidence in a horse that likes to lead: he would take them on halfway through his Flat races and run his field ragged. A very interesting prospect. On the day, there is more confidence behind Nosler (2.50) in the Christian Williams – 26 yesterday – treble bid for Nicholls. Nosler has been given time, and plenty of schooling, to recover from tipping up on his hurdles debut in October. Williams goes on to take a potential winning ride on Wizard Of Edge (3.25): as a team, Williams and ‘Wizard’ have been unplaced only once from six starts and 8.0 on Betdaq this morning was a plum ripe for pulling. Another good each-way bet but, me, I was dutching right away in this one, while the offers gave me the chance of a decent margin. Tradingup (5.2) was the t’other one, with Nick Schofield’s claim taking him below the rating he had when he won over course and distance last year: he’d pulled up in his previous race, so last time’s disappointing run at Warwick is only typical of his profile; he probably ‘bounced’ after spreadeagling his field at Chepstow (distances: 19 lengths, a nose and 69 lengths) first time back. Wedding List (6.50) showed the benefit of her recent second over the Great Leighs course and distance when stretching on easily from Dream Date in a gallop on Tuesday morning. Well drawn and very well fancied.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 4pts win CAROLE’S LEGACY (12.25 Newbury) BANKER 10pts win THE TOTHER ONE (2.05 Newbury) BET 3pts win and place PRIDEUS (3.15 Newbury) DUTCH TO WIN 15pts TRADINGUP and WIZARD OF EDGE (3.25 Taunton) BET 8pts win WEDDING LIST (6.50 Great Leighs) DAQ MULTIPLES: Shamari (1.05 Taunton) and Nosler (2.50 Taunton), with Prideus, The Tother One and Wedding List.
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DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 26 November DAQMAN BROKE ALL RECORDS yet again yesterday but is still not satisfied, as he explains in today’s column. FOURTEEN LAYS IN A ROW: He completed 14 consecutive successful lays of mainly morning favourites when Chief Dan George (3rd 7-2) failed over fences at Sedgefield. Then the bubble burst and he starts a new series of lays today. RECORD CENTURY: He finished yesterday spot on 100 winning bets in the last 25 days, beating his previous fastest ton (107 in 27 days). TWO BANKERS:  Today there are two each-way bankers at Kempton Park. The lay is at Wolverhampton tonight.   It’s boom time for Nicky Henderson, who attempts a six-hit at Kempton Park today on the back of 22 places from 38 runners, 11 of them wins, in the last two weeks. They went 305,000 euros for Lord Ragnar (12.30) last year and I take him to beat the brilliantly named Somersby (by Second Empire out of Back To Roost). And French Opera (1.00), who collected in style at Aintree, has schooled impressively since and can make it two for Henderson in the race won last year by hot favourite Boomshakalaka. But Boomshakalaka (3.15), though not even forecast favourite now, could be the best Henderson value on the card this time around. The Anshan gelding was two out of two over fences on the course last season. Forget his performances later on; he goes well fresh and that loss of form means he’s on a handy 131 rating, which has connections bullish. He has been showing up impressively at home and is considered a similar type to Barbers Shop who ran a belter in the Paddy Power. His odds should be good enough to be able to insure your win stake with a place bet. Another each-way banker is I’m Supreme (2.40), getting a stone from Hendersons’s morning favourite, Terramarique: at 5.5 on Betdaq, I’ll do the same split on maximum stakes; half to win, half place insurance. Richard Johnson had the tough decision to desert Tamadot at Chepstow in favour of I’m Supreme. Philip Hobbs’ Supreme Leader lightweight was feeling the effects of a hard season when disappointing at Wincanton at the end of last term but, over the summer, has seriously impressed, looking a very smart chaser in the making. Connections think he’ll be a classy stayer and he’s fit and strongly fancied for today’s reappearance over hurdles off a lenient mark of 106 on a surface to suit. Tamadot (2.15 Chepstow) was third on the reappearance in a much better race – behind Andytown at the Cheltenham Open Meeting – and could be good enough despite a 5lb rise. The favourite, Charles Street, is up 31lb since the start of his three-out of four sequence over 20 and 21 furlongs and is returning to 3m; his form over 23, 24 and 25 furlongs – albeit before he struck form – was 0000343. But Tamadot’s 11st 12lb is still a lot of weight over 3m round Chepstow; only one previous winner has carried more than 11st 6lb., and I might have a pound on comparative outsider Gala Evening; he had a new lease of life on AW early in the year and came back to hurdles with a staying-on third up the steep final gradient at Towcester. Paul Nicholls’ has won the opener five times in five years in its 10 divisions; this year there’s no split and there’s Bensalem, an Alan King Turtle Island gelding with a very decent bumper to his credit. Don’t be a Silly Wupple! Get on Checkerboard (3.00) instead at Wetherby: Howard Johnson has almost as good a current record as Nicky Henderson with 16 placed from 39 starters in the last two weeks. Checkerboard jumped solidly, though unfancied at 12-1, in a race full of winners at Carlisle last month the day before Silly Wupple had a very hard time of it to win at Hexham. I think the one will come on for the run; the other might not forget his in a hurry. Best All-Weather bet is John Gosden’s Enlightened (7.20). The Bahamian Bounty filly has been working nicely with Party Frock - second in a similar race the other day - and this looks a shocking maiden. She gets 5lb from North South Divide who has squandered many similar chances and looked very quirky last time. Enlightened is still lightly raced and improving and the way she has worked of late suggests she should be good enough to win. I’ll play my cards like this: divide the total stake and bid against ‘North South.’ It’s been poor racing this week and to break my century record on a placed horse (albeit at 13.0 on Betdaq) earlier in the week and without a profit on the day yesterday goes against the grain, even though all my other each-way bets which have placed have not counted if they have been less than 8-1. ‘Never satisfied’ is the only way to be when you bet for a living. Watch this space!
TODAY'S BETS
BET 4pts win TAMADOT and 1pt win GALA EVENING (2.15 Chepstow) EACH-WAY BANKER: 5pts win and place I’M SUPREME (2.40 Kempton) BET 6pts win CHECKERBOARD (3.00 Wetherby) EACH-WAY BANKER: 5pts win and place BOOMSHAKALAKA (3.15 Kempton) LAY to win 10pts NORTH SOUTH DIVIDE and BET 6pts win ENLIGHTENED (7.20 Wolverhampton) DAQ MULTIPLES: Lord Ragnar (12.30 Kempton) and French Opera (1.00 Kempton) with Checkerboard and Enlightened, charged to the account as 1pt win doubles.
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DAQMAN on Tuesday

Tuesday 25 November LUCKY-13 RECORD: Daqman did it again yesterday when he successfully laid another morning favourite, Featherweight (3rd 3-1). That was winning lay number 169 from 216 in little more than a year as he bids for 200 before the start of the Flat. It was a record 13th successful lay on the trot and his 50th winning bet in 15 days. Daring as ever, Daqman bismarcks two more favourites today, one at Sedgefield, one at Southwell. But he starts with a blot in Betdaq ante-post trading on Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup.   They clapped Caracciola’s win in the Cesarewitch and they hailed Hardy Eustace’s in the Maplewood but, in fact, it was a big-race hat-trick this year for 11-year-olds: they were forgetting Monkerhostin’s Gold Cup win at Sandown in April. And I can reveal that Monkerhostin (50.0 on Betdaq) is likely to line up for Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup under Richard Johnson, with stablemate Parsons Legacy a doubtful runner. I am also informed that Tony Martin expects to send over Royal County Star (Robbie Colgan) from Ireland instead of Patsy Hall, which has the Aintree Grand National as its target. Royal County Star, the Irish National runner-up, is a blot in Betdaq trading this morning, being offered at 32.0 as I write, though only 12-1 to 16-1 in bookmakers’ fixed-odds on the Racing Post markets page. I am trying to get off the 13 mark today, so I’m looking for lays from Southwell to Sedgefield, but first I’ll stick on horse No. 13 for a pound at Southwell. So biased has been the effect of the draw in the amateur riders’ handicap that stalls 11 to 15 have scored seven wins out of the last nine renewals, producing SP returns of 33-1, 35-1, 16-1 and 11-1. And I can’t for the life of me understand why Kingsmaite (12.40), in stall 13, is trading at 14.0 as I write. Four times a winner on the course – including over the distance – he reappeared a fortnight ago after a break and should take advantage of his draw. Though Kinigi (1.10) won a class-5 handicap here a fortnight ago, they’ve dropped her into a class-6 claimer and put her in so cheaply that she gets weight all round, including 24lb from top-rating and market rival Smalljohn if the jockey’s allowance is taking into account. Southwell form rarely translates anywhere else so I like a winning track performer on my side against the field. Fillies against colts also fare badly on AW. The Prescott filly Kind Heart (2.10) is one who will find it difficult to adapt to the course, and this looks like a third maiden run before a handicap. She gets plenty of weight from Alexander Gulch but Kevin Ryan’s colt is bred for the surface and charged home last time as if needing today’s trip. He could be special and you can’t see the horizon without sticking your neck out, so I’m going for a double-whammy, laying the favourite and backing Alexander Gulch, 2-1 as I write. It’s a dross day indeed if the 12.50 Sedgefield is our best spectacle, with Chief Dan George taking on some decent types in Logan’s Run, Lease Lend, Cast Iron Casey, Hernando’s Boy and Bedlam Boy; it wouldn’t be far off the field one would expect for something like the Dipper Chase in its Newcastle days. Chief Dan George lost his way over timber last term, and was beaten a total of 265 lengths in seven starts; but the handicapper can’t forget his Aintree Grade-1 hurdle in April 2007 so he’s still rated 145 despite all those duck eggs. That’s why I think the switch to chasing today is a last resort, frustration because he’s handicapped out of a redemption mission in the lower grades over hurdles. Any eight-year-old going chasing for the first time raises a big question mark, so I’d rather be a layer than a player, and he’s another favourite – and another chance for me to get off the 13 mark – that I want to oppose today. A beginners’ chase makes the double whammy doubly difficult: Logan’s Run was backed at long odds before being outclassed behind Petitfour at Aintree, but shaped with promise on his chasing debut in a race where he was badly wrong at the weights and made a serious error at the last when still close enough; Bedlam Boy would have been a fair third on his chasing debut to the smart Kicks For Free but for unseating two out and that form also looks solid; Cast Iron Casey is a good jumper and has most experience so he can’t be written off either. They all add weight to my opposing Chief Dan George but the two to bet against the favourite are Lease Lend and Hernando’s Boy (16.0 on Betdaq this morning). On his step up to today’s trip last time out, Lease Lend tried hard and jumped fluently; a horse that would be rated 129 over hurdles looks a better chaser already. Hernando’s Boy had the stamina to win a hurdle of 22 furlongs, has had a run on the Flat recently and is partnered by James Reveley, who had the biggest win of his career when Endless Power took the Grand Sefton on Sunday. Jumping mistakes put paid to a promising start over fences for Digital Media (2.20) last season but he deserves support for another crack after a pipe-opener over the smaller obstacles; well handicapped off 92. Rival Bidder (3.20) looks a dour stayer and this 3m 3f on a slow surface will almost certainly suit. A runaway winner two outings ago, the quicker ground and a less demanding track made him look rather one-paced last time out. Now up in trip on a stiffer track, he has a promising claimer and a drop in grade to help.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 3pts win and place KINGSMAITE (12.40 Southwell) LAY to win 10pts CHIEF DAN GEORGE and BET 2pts win and place LEASE LEND, and 1pt win and place HERNANDO’S BOY (12.50 Sedgefield) BET 5pts win KINIGI (1.10 Southwell) LAY to win 10pts KIND HEART, plus 5pts win ALEXANDER GULCH (2.10 Southwell) BET 4pts win DIGITAL MEDIA (2.20 Sedgefield) BET 3pts win and place RIVAL BIDDER (3.20 Sedgefield) ANTE-POST 1pt win ROYAL COUNTY STAR (32.0, Hennessy Gold Cup)
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DAQMAN on Monday

Monday 24 November DAQMAN needs four wins in four days to beat his fastest-century record after Serabad (won 9-2) was his only scorer yesterday. He’s had 48 winning bets in a fortnight in his latest ton-up series and needs just 39 more for 1,000 wins in this column. But that puts him on 96 winning bets in the 23 days of November, a terrific strike-rate of more than four a day. His fastest 100 to date was completed only two weeks ago in 27 days. Daqman’s lays are also on a roll with 12 in a row successful. Today he lays a Lingfield favourite, which weakened early on Betdaq, where he’s also found 15.5 and 13.0 each-way offers at the same venue.     Did you pick the right one ante-post for the Grand National before the Becher at Aintree yesterday? Anyone who fancied Black Apalachi could have had 107-1 on Betdaq for next April. It wasn’t my day – I hope it was yours – but, such is the value on Betdaq, that you and I, both, must win in the long run-in. All we have to do is continue betting where the odds are on our side: if you didn’t learn the lesson on the Grand National yesterday, take a look at the same race today. Black Apalachi, now quoted 16-1 and 20-1 with most bookmakers, was trading at 30.0 on Betdaq this morning, nearly double the odds of some firms. Yesterday’s 15-2 Becher winner is being claimed as a 20-1 success on the front page of the Racing Post; well done, Pricewise. But how many got on at that price. The 20-1 was with one bookmaker (as published in the Post) and most quoted 14-1 or 16-1 (the sponsors were only 12-1) and, as soon as they see Pricewise in the paper, some go shorter. When you back horses on Betdaq, there is no possibility of panic by a bookmaker, no offsetting of liabilities and market restructuring to restore a punitive take-out. That’s because you are doing a straight deal on offers by other punters; if you miss one trade, offers will be adjacent, not a dramatic reduction. At any time, you don’t have to look far for the difference in value between Betdaq and the bookies. In the very first race at Lingfield this morning, as I write, the offers on Betdaq add up to 6% against the punter, but – even selecting the best odds for each horse – it’s 21% against you with the bookmakers, and therefore worse with each individual bookie. It’s the same story, day in day out, on the day or ante-post. Use an odds-percentage table and you have three advantages: firstly, you are ahead of the other punters in your search for value; secondly, you can clearly see the better value on Betdaq, thirdly you can choose which Betdaq races give best value; you can get the best of the best, in fact. Keep a record of your bets: alongside the wins and losses on Betdaq, note the bookmaker’s equivalent odds at the time you did a trade; then see how much better off you are. Incidentally, my winners are blurbed at SP, so there is no argument about whether bigger odds, like the 20-1, were available or not; Betdaq punters comparing trades and odds will all know that I would have had those bigger ‘overs’ on the exchange before the race. In that opener at Lingfield today, the bookies were betting 10-1 and 12-1 Gerard Butler’s Sea Swell (12.00) as I write; I could get 15.5 on Betdaq about this well-bred filly, tongue tied for her first handicap. Another problem with the bookies is that most are running scared for all contests other than handicaps: I can’t, therefore, tell you what price Fortuni (12.30) with them as I take the 13.0 on Betdaq in the maiden. You can never be sure with Sir Mark Prescott whether the button will be pressed in a maiden, or whether to wait, tick off three maidens and bet first time in a handicap. But Fortuni has learned fast since he ran green on the debut, looking a tad special in homework when sprinting 10 lengths clear of recent Great Leighs runner-up Kind Heart, a 75-80 filly. Whatever happens today, I expect Fortuni to trade shorter; much shorter and you have a bet and lay. Motivated Choice (1.00), another going handicapping for the first time, is 9-2 best with the four bookies open for business on the internet as I write, 4-1 with one of the Big Three: but you could get 6.8 on Betdaq. Cumani’s game Compton Place filly should benefit from the strong gallop likely to be set by Lord Deevert and her work at home lately has been very pleasing. The 6f at a fast pace is what she needs; she’s certainly better than a 67 horse -  and still improving -  having worked nicely in front of Jennie Jerome (rated in the 80s) in recent weeks. Featherweight (2.35) eased from odds on to nearly 2-1 against in early trades in the face of sustained support for Formula, from 8.0 in to 4.8, and I take the Highclere Thoroughbreds colt to blow away the ‘Feather’ filly. That’s not just one of my awful puns: Featherweight is light weight; she  found nothing for pressure last time; her Newmarket race hasn’t worked out; and, if she was any good, she would be in a nursery after her three maidens. Lay. Quidonic (12.50) Ludlow was a dour staying type in France, so his first run in England over an inadequate two miles was most satisfactory, particularly since this hold-up horse was ridden with the pace. Today’s 21 furlongs is more like it.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 5pts win QUIDONIC (12.50 Ludlow) BET 1pt win and place SEA SWELL (12.00 Lingfield) BET 3pts win and place FORTUNI (12.30 Lingfield) BET 6pts win MOTIVATED CHOICE (1.00 Lingfield) LAY to win 10pts FEATHERWEIGHT and 5pts win FORMULA (2.35 Lingfield)
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DAQMAN on Sunday

Sunday 23 November TWELVE LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman did it yet again yesterday, laying into hot-pot Crack Away Jack with Choma Womba (won 2-1) as his trump card in the big race at Ascot. Crack Away Jack (2nd 2-1) was part of a sequence of 12 consecutive successful lays and it was his second double-whammy in two days, after a 9-4 winner and 11-8 on lay in the same race on Friday. It was two lays out of two on Friday when he also nailed a 6-4 favourite, and it was two out of two again yesterday when he bismarcked Palarshan (unplaced 7-2 favourite). With 18 winning bets in three days, Daqman is set to smash his fastest-century record: he recently grabbed 100 in only 27 days but now needs just five wins by Wednesday to do the trick in 26 or less.    The bet today at Aintree is not in the big chases themselves but on the Grand National, ante-post with Betdaq, particularly if you fancy one of the Paul Nicholls’ runners, Gwanako, Gungadu or Mr Pointment, in ‘the real thing’ next year. From the two ‘mini-Nationals’ this afternoon – the Grand Sefton and Becher chases - here’s what I could get on Betdaq for the same runners in April: 34-1 Irish Raptor, 36-1 Idle Talk, 37-1 Himalayan Trail, 50-1 Mr Pointment, 67-1 Gungadu, 97-1 A New Story, 107-1 Black Apalachi, 127-1 Gwanako and 197-1 Ponmeoath. The only horses currently quoted in public by bookmakers for April are (best prices): 25-1 Himalayan Trail, 33-1 Gwanako, 40-1 Gungadu, Irish Raptor, 50-1 Mr Pointment and Ponmeoath, with the Nicholls’ trio a total of 121 points worse than Betdaq offers. The two winners today will be drastically reduced in all markets: Gwanako could come down around 100 points from his towering 127-1; Mr Pointment and Gungadu by some 25 points. Massive ‘overs’. My view? Well, I’ve given you five ‘nuggets’ in the last week – horses with a golden future – and had four winners and a third on the day, and I’m satisified that all five will go on to better things. Though it’s the least tempting in any ante-post market, my Aintree ‘nugget’ is Himalayan Trail from the same stable that produced Montys Pass to win the Grand National in 2003. Himalayan Trail (2.50) is not going to be punished today, since it’s his first try at the Aintree fences; a handful in the race have already been there, done that and Mr Pointment got the tea-shirt (or should that be yellow jersey) as last year’s Becher winner. Paul Nicholls makes betting on that race difficult today by running both Gungadu and Mr Pointment but his sole runner, Gwanako, in the Grand Sefton has the easier task: there’s very little substance in the race, with the presence of Turpin Green creating a gaping five-stone long-handicap and leaving five of them out in the cold, one of them 44lb out of the handicap. Gwanako (1.40) is the only one known to be able to handle these fences unscathed, though Iron Man was running well in the Becher last year when he fell and Brendan Powell hopes it’s third time lucky for Which Pocket whose current Aintree record reads like a rugby scrum: brought down; knocked sideways twice. The stables with superb Grand National records, those of McCain and Twiston-Davies, have a runner in each mini-National and I wouldn’t put you off an each-way bet on any of them but I think Gwanako stands out in the Sefton and ‘Himalayan’ is my each-way bet in the Becher to get on the Aintree Trail. We start a day of National dreams with the appropriately named Fairyland (12.30) who should have too much experience for some interesting hopefuls in the maiden hurdle: my man in the long grass says Fairyland is one of the nicer types in the yard and has been working extremely well.   He’s put the slide-rule on Caravel, the Cambridgeshire seventh, and worries that he’s too ‘keen’, which would stop him getting the trip: sprinter Geojimali will also need to adjust and bumper winner Honest John looks the main concern. Glingerbank (1.05) was a ‘nugget’ way back, but met with problems and only recently ‘came back’: I would love to see Nicky Richards’ patience rewarded, particularly after taking 10.0 on Betdaq this morning. Half the field for the handicap hurdle have been absent 200 days or more; of those that go well fresh, Sunday City is getting straight again for his chasing career and Good Spirit’s stable form gives no encouragement for a quick resumption to the kind of ability that earned him a place in the Arkle. Knockavilla could redeem himself after last week’s fall and King Caine looks booked for a place but, though the stable is not yet fully firing, the grey Triumph Hurdle sixth Serabad (2.15) looks worth following dropped to handicaps: at 7.0 on Betdaq as I write, he’s worth the risk each way. I shall have a pound on Aim For The Stars (3.35 Towcester) after Henry Daly’s return to form with two winners and three placed from seven runners on Saturday. Back to the stars of the day: as well as Aintree, we have the Troytown at Navan and the usual Irish bog: that’s why no winner has carried more than 11st 1lb in the last decade nor as far back as I can remember. I shall dutch Operation Houdini (8.4 on Betdaq this morning; 3pts win), proven at the trip in the conditions and still well handicapped, and Hold The Pin (7.0 to 4pts win) from Tony Martin’s winning stable of last year; ‘Pin’ would have held them in a stamina test at Punchestown but for a last-fence fall and hasn’t been using that stamina over inappropriate trips since.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win FAIRYLAND (12.30 Aintree) BET 1pt win and place GLINGERBANK (1.05 Aintree) BET 6pts win GWANAKO (1.40 Aintree) BET 2pts win and place SERABAD (2.15 Aintree) DUTCH to win 20pts HOLD THE PIN and OPERATION HOUDINI (2.30 Navan) BET 2pts win and place HIMALAYAN TRAIL (2.50 Aintree) BET 2pts win and place AIM FOR THE STARS (3.35 Towcester) ANTE-POST: 1pt win HIMALAYAN TRAIL (Grand National 2009)
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