DAQMAN on Wednesday

Wednesday 12 November Daqman finds 20-1 value on Betdaq today in a Kempton race, with the stats and race fitness on his side against highly weighted horses that haven’t been out this season. He finds a favourite at Wolverhampton whose market rivals are not the dangers they seem to be. He finds two horses unraced over hurdles that are value for different reasons. And he finds ways in which Betdaq trading can help him make a profit with only schoolboy maths. It’s a good few years since I was a schoolboy with a shining morning face (who made a book on the Grand National on the form-room blackboard) but I remember that good homework didn’t always wash when it came to exams. But this column has thrived on gallops reports and, today in particular, I’m going to rely on home form passing public examination on the racecourse. It doesn’t take a scholar to pick Tataniano (1.05 Kempton) but there is a bit of ‘maths’ to do and most punters will expect to add it up like this: Tataniano’s receipt of Shalone’s 7lb penalty could be decisive. Now my man in the long grass, watching the Nicholls’ gallops with his slide rule at the ready, says that Tataniano is about the equal of The Nightingale, who ‘had Shalone beat’ when slipping up at Exeter last time. I think we can now go back to the blackboard and do a rewrite: it’s not Tataniano ‘could’ beat Shalone but ‘should’ beat Shalone. That converts the equation from odds-against chance to odds-on. Yet I can get 2-1 Tataniano on Betdaq this morning. A word of warning from the form masters who taught me about racing: don’t forget the variables and imponderables and don’t forget there are other horses in the race we don’t know all about and Tataniano hasn’t actually jumped a twig in public yet. But I lectured you (and reminded myself) on this yesterday, remember: Betdaq punters have something not available in the betting-shops; what they have is the fluidity of a market of exchange; it is not a fixed-odds book nor is it a market manipulated for profit from start to finish by private concerns called bookmakers. You have two choices: choose the value and stand, knowing that – over a period – you can’t lose if your value verdict was correct. Or take the value and play the market where you can so that, whatever happens, you have cover on your position. In other words, on Betdaq, you, the punter, can manipulate for a profit where once only your bookie could do so. Take 2-1 Tataniano; if he shortens to odds-on, lay him; or, if Shalone is opposed out to 5-1 or so, back him, all the time, planning to get yourself into a win-win situation or one with solid insurance cover. As Mel Collier says of his Nicky Henderson bet in the Racing Post today, betting blind is going against the grain for a professional, but the same schoolboy maths apply, firstly in that Henderson is 50% with novice hurdlers at Kempton and currently 39% for the season with all novice hurdlers, and secondly, you have the many Betdaq options to see you through. Henderson has won the opener twice in the last three years and his runner, You’re The Top (12.30) is getting 7lb from penalized Michael Flips, yet Andy Turnell’s horse is 17-10 on Betdaq as I write and the You’re The Top is 7.0. What to do? Answer, as ever: take what seems to be value in You’re The Top and reassess the race nearer the time, according to the market trends: take out insurance, lay the favourite, whatever you feel is necessary. I can only tip as I find and recommend You’re The Top win and place. Nicky Henderson also won the Pertemps qualifier last year with Chomba Womba and runs Duc De Regniere in it today: but no winner of this so far has carried more than 10-13 over the 19 furlongs, even though the going has always been good. It’s tough; it’s a race for a very fit stayer. Like Mith Hill, 20.0 on Betdaq this morning. Mith Hill (2.15), third in the Goodwood Stakes, has won at this trip at Cheltenham. The yard is in great form and one of last week’s winners was ridden by David Dennis, who was aboard Mith Hill that day at Cheltenham and partners him again here. The gelding had a run on the Flat three weeks ago. Henrietta Knight hasn’t had a winner for 166 days – 40 consecutive losers – so I can understand why 7-2 forecast Ringaroses has been opposed out to near double that price. Nakai is difficult to settle and, according to his trainer, is running over hurdles before going chasing to try to ‘get some freshness out of him.’ Freeze The Frame hasn’t raced since England were dreaming of the European Cup; McGruders Cross is 10 now; Mister Gloss is unlikely to settle at this trip. Matuhi might be ‘anything’ and worth a pound but I really think Mith Hill has an opening here, and that insurance lies with the Duc De Regniere and Middleton Green: the more you discredit the opposition, the more those solid top-weights enter into it. Again, I shall content myself at this distance with an each-way on Mith Hill. I thought the Graduation Chase looked a cracker but Imsingingtheblues (2.50), never better than evens, is down to 1.89 as I write, and backers are still queuing up! Early trading forced Pur De Sivola in to around 11-4 but he’s been on the slide since then and is about 7-1. I’ve got to take that as he goes well fresh and is returning to 2m and the type of track he needs; he won at Wincanton and came close to taking the Pendil on today’s course before crashing out of it. Alan King says that Pur De Sivola has improved enormously during the winter, and I can do a deal at the 7-1 and insure with ‘Blues’ at a better trade later; I might have a pound on Briareus as well. It’s certainly not the easy race for the Nicholls’ favourite that the market suggests and, if he gets any shorter, I’ll lay him! John Gosden finished the turf season strongly and Hometown (1.50) looks a Daq Multiples hub in an AW maiden at Southwell. Second to a nice sort last time, the filly has improved nicely and impressed over the weekend in a good piece of work. I shall also put in Grizebeck (3.10 Bangor), a three-times Flat winner from four starts this last season who has hurdling experience, which should be put to good use by the Richards-Condon team I have been talking about in the last two days. At Wolverhampton tonight, Partner Shift (7.20), not knocked about in a very hot maiden last time at Lingfield, has come on in leaps and bounds at home, as Ed Dunlop’s are always likely to do: looked impressive the other day in a gallop on the Cambridge Road Polytrack. Confidence increases, since I hear of the main market dangers ‘Debussy needs further’ and the Stoute newcomer is ‘more of a three-year-old type’. Eddie Ahern is gunning for Chris Catlin’s AW crown and his mount, Laurel Creek (9.20), travels from Ireland after running a close second to a highly regarded Cumani type. Not stopping that day, he will appreciate the step up to 2m.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 3pts win and place YOU’RE THE TOP (12.30 Kempton) BET 8pts win TATANIANO (1.05 Kempton) BET 5pts win HOMETOWN (1.50 Southwell) BET 2pts win and place MITH HILL (2.15 Kempton) BET 4pts win on each PUR DE SIVOLA and IMSINGINGTHEBLUES (2.50 Kempton) BET 5pts win GRIZEBECK (3.10 Bangor) BET 5pts win PARTNER SHIFT (7.20 Wolverhampton) BET 2pts win and place LAUREL CREEK (9.20 Wolverhampton) DAQ MULTIPLES: Grizebeck, Hometown, Partner Shift and Tataniano, charged to the account as 1pt win doubles.
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