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Tuesday 25 November
LUCKY-13 RECORD: Daqman did it again yesterday when he successfully laid another morning favourite, Featherweight (3rd 3-1).
That was winning lay number 169 from 216 in little more than a year as he bids for 200 before the start of the Flat.
It was a record 13th successful lay on the trot and his 50th winning bet in 15 days.
Daring as ever, Daqman bismarcks two more favourites today, one at Sedgefield, one at Southwell.
But he starts with a blot in Betdaq ante-post trading on Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup.
They clapped Caracciola’s win in the Cesarewitch and they hailed Hardy Eustace’s in the Maplewood but, in fact, it was a big-race hat-trick this year for 11-year-olds: they were forgetting Monkerhostin’s Gold Cup win at Sandown in April.
And I can reveal that Monkerhostin (50.0 on Betdaq) is likely to line up for Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup under Richard Johnson, with stablemate Parsons Legacy a doubtful runner.
I am also informed that Tony Martin expects to send over Royal County Star (Robbie Colgan) from Ireland instead of Patsy Hall, which has the Aintree Grand National as its target.
Royal County Star, the Irish National runner-up, is a blot in Betdaq trading this morning, being offered at 32.0 as I write, though only 12-1 to 16-1 in bookmakers’ fixed-odds on the Racing Post markets page.
I am trying to get off the 13 mark today, so I’m looking for lays from Southwell to Sedgefield, but first I’ll stick on horse No. 13 for a pound at Southwell.
So biased has been the effect of the draw in the amateur riders’ handicap that stalls 11 to 15 have scored seven wins out of the last nine renewals, producing SP returns of 33-1, 35-1, 16-1 and 11-1.
And I can’t for the life of me understand why Kingsmaite (12.40), in stall 13, is trading at 14.0 as I write. Four times a winner on the course – including over the distance – he reappeared a fortnight ago after a break and should take advantage of his draw.
Though Kinigi (1.10) won a class-5 handicap here a fortnight ago, they’ve dropped her into a class-6 claimer and put her in so cheaply that she gets weight all round, including 24lb from top-rating and market rival Smalljohn if the jockey’s allowance is taking into account.
Southwell form rarely translates anywhere else so I like a winning track performer on my side against the field. Fillies against colts also fare badly on AW.
The Prescott filly Kind Heart (2.10) is one who will find it difficult to adapt to the course, and this looks like a third maiden run before a handicap. She gets plenty of weight from Alexander Gulch but Kevin Ryan’s colt is bred for the surface and charged home last time as if needing today’s trip.
He could be special and you can’t see the horizon without sticking your neck out, so I’m going for a double-whammy, laying the favourite and backing Alexander Gulch, 2-1 as I write.
It’s a dross day indeed if the 12.50 Sedgefield is our best spectacle, with Chief Dan George taking on some decent types in Logan’s Run, Lease Lend, Cast Iron Casey, Hernando’s Boy and Bedlam Boy; it wouldn’t be far off the field one would expect for something like the Dipper Chase in its Newcastle days.
Chief Dan George lost his way over timber last term, and was beaten a total of 265 lengths in seven starts; but the handicapper can’t forget his Aintree Grade-1 hurdle in April 2007 so he’s still rated 145 despite all those duck eggs.
That’s why I think the switch to chasing today is a last resort, frustration because he’s handicapped out of a redemption mission in the lower grades over hurdles.
Any eight-year-old going chasing for the first time raises a big question mark, so I’d rather be a layer than a player, and he’s another favourite – and another chance for me to get off the 13 mark – that I want to oppose today.
A beginners’ chase makes the double whammy doubly difficult: Logan’s Run was backed at long odds before being outclassed behind Petitfour at Aintree, but shaped with promise on his chasing debut in a race
where he was badly wrong at the weights and made a serious error at the last when still close enough; Bedlam Boy would have been a fair third on his chasing debut to the smart Kicks For Free but for unseating two out and that form also looks solid; Cast Iron Casey is a good jumper and has most experience so he can’t be written off either.
They all add weight to my opposing Chief Dan George but the two to bet against the favourite are Lease Lend and Hernando’s Boy (16.0 on Betdaq this morning).
On his step up to today’s trip last time out, Lease Lend tried hard and jumped fluently; a horse that would be rated 129 over hurdles looks a better chaser already. Hernando’s Boy had the stamina to win a hurdle of 22 furlongs, has had a run on the Flat recently and is partnered by James Reveley, who had the biggest win of his career when Endless Power took the Grand Sefton on Sunday.
Jumping mistakes put paid to a promising start over fences for Digital Media (2.20) last season but he deserves support for another crack after a pipe-opener over the smaller obstacles; well handicapped off 92.
Rival Bidder (3.20) looks a dour stayer and this 3m 3f on a slow surface will almost certainly suit. A runaway winner two outings ago, the quicker ground and a less demanding track made him look rather one-paced last time out. Now up in trip on a stiffer track, he has a promising claimer and a drop in grade to help. |
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