DAQMAN on Thursday

Thursday 27 November Daqman’s form has dipped in midweek, just when he’d hit his fastest century of winners in only 24 days. He has something to say in his column about those days when you choose the wrong one of two. But he now needs only 34 more winning bets to reach 1,000 in around 13 months. And he still restored his fantastic run of lays yesterday, bringing his current sequence to 15 out of 16 in style when he bagged an odds-on shot. His latest victim was North South Divide (2nd 10-11 favourite) at Wolverhampton last night. The next six weeks is the time to oppose winning novices with penalties: they don’t all get beaten but enough that have won weak events in October and November come to better races as favourite at the turn of the year, and lose. Take the three previous runnings of today’s opener at Newbury. In two of those years, odds-on Heltornic (11st 4lb) and Bonchester Bridge (11st 8b), which both came to the race as penalized previous winners, were well beaten as favourites, giving 12lb and 6lb to most in the field. There’s just the 6lb difference today but Carole’s Legacy (12.25) can help restore Nicky Henderson’s strike rate after his six-hit became hit-wicket yesterday: all half dozen –three favourites among them – were beaten in his assault on Kempton Park. In the face of the stats, Over Sixty is no value at 6-4 on this morning and, with 12.0 bar two, the 4.2 trade Carole’s Legacy is a stand-out: simplistically, you’re getting better than 3-1 in a what the market says is a two-horse race. But remember my loss and your gain at the time of writing is that you can follow changes in the market on Betdaq right up to the ‘off’: me, too, but I can’t change either these words or my selections. There could, for instance, be some evens or odds against Over Sixty traded later, with Carole’s Legacy in to say 2.8; where’s the value then? Maybe that would be an opportunity to nip in with a saver on the favourite. On the other hand, Over Sixty might go even shorter, and become a lay. Decide what prices you want and trade accordingly, adjusting your view of the race as the market reshapes. With Betdaq, you already have value, in that you are not betting in a massively overround book so keep up with the exchanges and mix bet and lay with a view to winning the race. Strangely, the majority of punters still want to pick one horse to win, when it is now far easier to pick a race to win. The beginners’ chase is a real exercise for your trading skills: only a handful of runners but most intriguing; A.P. McCoy got into hot water for being too tender with Straw Bear at Cheltenham when Pasco was a close third. At the same time, Pasco ran too freely that day and has taken over as favourite at 1.95 as I write. I immediately grabbed some 2.57 Straw Bear, thinking the favourites might well flip-flop again later on: I would need odds-on Straw Bear to have a comfy bet-and-lay, or I’d take any odds against Pasco as a saver on my Straw Bear trade if that’s the way it goes. Despite the small field, Hi Blue and Thenford Trout could break some Betdaq records for three-figure trades in a five-runner race; well, that’s the way it looks on form: Hi Blue has pulled up five times out of seven and Thenford Trout has been beaten 270 lengths plus in four outings (the ‘plus’ is in the official form). Sure enough, as I write, Hi Blue is 230.0. But Thenford Trout is only 22.0. What do Betdaq punters know that I don’t? Come on lads, you can tell me; I won’t tell anyone. I’m sure this’ll be a quirky trading race all day long. There’s another favourites flip-flop at Newbury this morning, not unexpected and, this time, unlikely to change very much: The Tother One (2.05), who has looked a lot better at home than his workmanlike win at Exeter, has replaced the paper favourite, Tartak. In fact, Gone To Lunch has nipped in between them, and Tartak really isn’t holding up very well at all. I can’t say I was on The Tother One early, but I do think the market as I write is saying that The Tother One will win, since he’s already beaten Gone To Lunch. Philip Hobbs goes for a four-timer in the conditional jockeys’ hurdle with different claimers; Rhys Flint is still awarded 8lb so Hector’s Choice could well be number four if he can master Prideus (3.15); four-year-olds are two out of three in this race and the pair could improve past Kerry’s Girl and Ned Ludd. Trading was light on this one at 5.0 the field as I monitored Betdaq this morning; I got 5.6 Prideus to win with better than evens the place for insurance purposes. I know that Alan King thinks this one has improved physically over the summer, so much so that he might consider going chasing. If we followed a stable in our Daq Multiples today – as we did Nicky Henderson yesterday (!) – it would have to be Paul Nicholls with The Tother One and Pepe Simo (3.45) at Newbury and then Shamari (1.05), The Nightingale (2.15) and Nosler (2.50) at Taunton, though I prefer a mix today (famous last words). Shamari’s race contains a good quota of Flat-breds, not to mention Flat trainers (Eve Johnson Houghton and Mick Channon are joining in the winter game), but Shamari is the best of them, as a son of Sinndar and half brother to Ascot Stakes third, Shamayoun, who won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham a couple of years ago. Shamari would figure high on my horses-to-follow list, expected to take an Ascot, Newbury or Cheltenham novice, but serious illness (developed problems after being gelded) means that he starts at this low level over too short a trip, as a 12-furlong winner on soft ground in France. But Shamari has recovered well and is showing all the right signs at home, and his running style has always been one of confidence in a horse that likes to lead: he would take them on halfway through his Flat races and run his field ragged. A very interesting prospect. On the day, there is more confidence behind Nosler (2.50) in the Christian Williams – 26 yesterday – treble bid for Nicholls. Nosler has been given time, and plenty of schooling, to recover from tipping up on his hurdles debut in October. Williams goes on to take a potential winning ride on Wizard Of Edge (3.25): as a team, Williams and ‘Wizard’ have been unplaced only once from six starts and 8.0 on Betdaq this morning was a plum ripe for pulling. Another good each-way bet but, me, I was dutching right away in this one, while the offers gave me the chance of a decent margin. Tradingup (5.2) was the t’other one, with Nick Schofield’s claim taking him below the rating he had when he won over course and distance last year: he’d pulled up in his previous race, so last time’s disappointing run at Warwick is only typical of his profile; he probably ‘bounced’ after spreadeagling his field at Chepstow (distances: 19 lengths, a nose and 69 lengths) first time back. Wedding List (6.50) showed the benefit of her recent second over the Great Leighs course and distance when stretching on easily from Dream Date in a gallop on Tuesday morning. Well drawn and very well fancied.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 4pts win CAROLE’S LEGACY (12.25 Newbury) BANKER 10pts win THE TOTHER ONE (2.05 Newbury) BET 3pts win and place PRIDEUS (3.15 Newbury) DUTCH TO WIN 15pts TRADINGUP and WIZARD OF EDGE (3.25 Taunton) BET 8pts win WEDDING LIST (6.50 Great Leighs) DAQ MULTIPLES: Shamari (1.05 Taunton) and Nosler (2.50 Taunton), with Prideus, The Tother One and Wedding List.
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