DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 29 November DOUBLE-WHAMMY DOUBLE: Daqman raised his game again yesterday with seven winning bets, including a double whammy twice, in each race laying the favourite and backing the winner. He laid Special Reserve (unplaced 5-4 favourite) and named Spouk (won 7-4) as the winner. He laid Riverside Theatre (2nd 4-1) and named Copper Bleu (won 11-4) the winner. That sets up another lays sequence of three out of three, following 14 in a row before he came unstuck on Tuesday, so that makes his run 17 successful out of 18 in three weeks. He now needs only 24 wins to reach 1,000 winning bets since his column began some 13 months ago, and he needs 27 more successful lays for 200. Big Bucks heads the market but today’s Hennessy is more the race of the Big Buts. When a trainer says “if he jumps” - as Paul Nicholls does of today’s favourite – then you must price him up with a big margin for error and, since he’s only five years old, I’m going to have to duck Bucks at the odds available. On Mildmay form, Big Bucks beats Albertas Run and he in turn, on Reynoldstown running, holds Air Force One. But horses aged six and seven, as they are, win the Hennessy year after year (all bar one since 1998). Alberta’s Run represents the Sun Alliance, which has brought Hennessy victory for Denman and Trabolgan in the last three seasons, while Oedipe comes from the Aintree race won by the 2006 winner here, State Of Play. But here come the ‘buts’. Alberta’s Run doesn’t jump well on soft ground and Tony McCoy says the going is ‘a major disappointment’ which could have put the ‘mockers’ on him. Air Force One’s best form is also on good ground and another ‘but’ is that he seems to prefer a right-handed course. Nicky Henderson worries that Oedipe (‘he’s no Trabolgan’) won’t last the trip on his first run of the season. What to do? Well, the Hennessy is always either a Gold Cup or a Grand National, depending on the state of the ground: you really have to be that classy and, or, stay that well. So I reasoned earlier in the week that, if this is a Grand National and not a Gold Cup, then I’d want to be with last year’s Troytown winner Royal County Star; he was an excellent second in the Irish Grand National with this season’s recent Troytown winner, Noble Pere, only third. I got a 32.0 Betdaq trade and ‘Star’ fell to as low as 11-1 in a place; the bookies are now going 14-1 or 16-1 (as I write) but, again, Betdaq is best at 20.0. It’s been a dry night at Newbury and Tony McCoy will be hoping that has put things right but I think it more likely that the going will be ‘sticky.’ Not many will like that; they’ll need weight off their backs to jump out of it. So I’m sticking like glue to the lightweights: Island Flyer is just that; he’s really impressive when ‘airborne,’ and he’s improving all the time. He’s not in the same league as Big Bucks and Albertas Run on form but 21lb difference in weight is an equalizer on tacky ground, putting him bang there to take advantage of the ‘buts.’ After all that, class will out, and it may be a Gold Cup after all; but remember when the young bloods lined up for the Betfred at Sandown in April? Monkerhostin – preferred by Richard Johnson over Parsons Legacy today – gave them all a lesson from the old man, and double-figure-aged Caracciola and Hardy Eustace have continued the trend. It’s the most open Hennessy for years, unless there’s a Denman from Ditcheat in there somewhere and my man in the long grass says it’s more likely to be Dear Villez for the Nicholls team than Big Bucks as a horse who stays well, jumps well, keeps on improving and has a jockey on board who will throw everything at him coming to the last. The shape of the race suggests he’ll have plenty of company at that final fence. I wanted to lay American Triology (12.25) this morning: my Ditcheat mole doesn’t fancy him; but neither do you. Betdaq backers have made Cockney Trucker clear favourite this morning in an early-doors gamble. Philip Hobbs’s horses could do no wrong yesterday and Cockney Trucker comes out of a race from which winner, fourth, sixth, eighth and tenth have all won since. That’s solid form which cannot be said of American Trilogy’s Chepstow win or his third at Cheltenham, when he cruised up into contention but folded tamely once put to the sword: horses close up in both races have subsequently been turned over. Hobbs and Johnson again have another top novice, this time a chaser, Calusa Caldera, in the Fulke Walwyn Trophy but, once more, Betdaq backers have created a new favourite in Shouldhavehadthat (1.00). I think the contest for favourite has left Artipreuil (10.0 on Betdaq) and Turbulance (16.0) too big: Artipreuil stays, jumps well and has a willing attitude; Turbulance is a very neat jumper and Noel Chance’s chasers always improve when they go handicapping. If I’m right that the ground will favour the lightweights, then Apocal – laid out for this by Paul Nicholls – will come into it. Nicky Henderson expects big things from Petit Robin (1.35) today; the yard has always regarded him as a smart chaser in the making. But, for a third time this morning, the layers have faced a flood of Betdaq bets robbing me of all the odds against right down to even money. The Long Distance Hurdle is mouth watering; only Kasbah Bliss is missing of the big guns. Alan King feels there will be no repercussions for leaving the headgear off Blazing Bailey today, having seen him win on the Flat without it, but his vast improvement over hurdles came with the application of headgear and, though he’s 4-2 down against Inglis Drever, he had been steadily closing the gap. Petitfour outbattled the strong-travelling Mobaasher at Wetherby; I can take one improver into the top flight but two together from the same race – they were separated by a neck - is not in my betting bible, so I doubt they are good enough at this level. In any case, on a line through The Tother One, Hills Of Aran, a cracking spare ride for in-form Richard Johnson could beat both. Duc De Regniere has Tony McCoy only ‘hopeful’ of a place so I’ll take Hills Of Aran each way: he has gone well here before in competitive races and is a real battler. We have a horse with attitude and a trainer, too: Keith Goldsworthy isn’t afraid to take on the big boys and is reveling in his big chance. There’ll certainly be some reveling tonight if 30.0 on Betdaq is successfully taken, even if only placed behind Inglis Drever. Yet again, I report a morning gamble on Betdaq; you’ve made Khyber Kim favourite for the Gerry Feilden and he was certainly impressive when fresh last term, but Prince Taime (3.45) represents the Hobbs yard which produced a storming win from Copper Bleu yesterday and is reckoned ‘as good as.’ The ‘Prince’ beat Alan King’s Ouzbeck as a novice yet is rated 125 against that one’s 153. King has Squadron in this, fourth in the Greatwood, but Hobbs has a good line to him via Hot Diamond (they were one-two at Cheltenham in April). Dansant (3.25 Kempton) completed a hat-trick of Listed wins last season including this Betdaq Wild Flower Stakes; has been impressing with Bonus in recent spins up the Al Bahathri and loves this track. He badly needed the run last time out when not knocked about. Saptapadi (6.50 Wolverhampton) is one who will go right to the top next Flat season; you read it here first. His work at home with Almuktahem has been impressive in recent weeks and Dale Gibson is a strong enough jockey to get him home on the debut. He won’t be punished first time but you may never get these odds again in an ordinary race: 7.4 on Betdaq this morning.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win COCKNEY TRUCKER (12.25 Newbury) BET 2pts win APOCAL, plus 1pt win and place TURBULANCE (1.00 Newbury) BET 6pts win PETIT ROBIN (1.35 Newbury) BET 8pts win INGLIS DREVER, and 1pt win and place HILLS OF ARAN (2.05 Newbury) BET 2pts win and place ISLAND FLYER, and 1pt win and place ROYAL COUNTY STAR (2.40 Newbury); already ante-post 1pt win Royal County Star at 32.0. BET 3pts win and place DANSANT (3.25 Kempton) EACH-WAY BANKER 5pts win and place PRINCE TAIME (3.45 Newbury) BET 3pts win and place SAPTAPADI (6.50 Wolverhampton) DAQ MULTIPLES: Cockney Trucker, Dansant, Inglis Drever, Petit Robin, Prince Taime, Saptapadi, charged to the account as 1pt win doubles.
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