DAQMAN on Monday

Monday 24 November DAQMAN needs four wins in four days to beat his fastest-century record after Serabad (won 9-2) was his only scorer yesterday. He’s had 48 winning bets in a fortnight in his latest ton-up series and needs just 39 more for 1,000 wins in this column. But that puts him on 96 winning bets in the 23 days of November, a terrific strike-rate of more than four a day. His fastest 100 to date was completed only two weeks ago in 27 days. Daqman’s lays are also on a roll with 12 in a row successful. Today he lays a Lingfield favourite, which weakened early on Betdaq, where he’s also found 15.5 and 13.0 each-way offers at the same venue.     Did you pick the right one ante-post for the Grand National before the Becher at Aintree yesterday? Anyone who fancied Black Apalachi could have had 107-1 on Betdaq for next April. It wasn’t my day – I hope it was yours – but, such is the value on Betdaq, that you and I, both, must win in the long run-in. All we have to do is continue betting where the odds are on our side: if you didn’t learn the lesson on the Grand National yesterday, take a look at the same race today. Black Apalachi, now quoted 16-1 and 20-1 with most bookmakers, was trading at 30.0 on Betdaq this morning, nearly double the odds of some firms. Yesterday’s 15-2 Becher winner is being claimed as a 20-1 success on the front page of the Racing Post; well done, Pricewise. But how many got on at that price. The 20-1 was with one bookmaker (as published in the Post) and most quoted 14-1 or 16-1 (the sponsors were only 12-1) and, as soon as they see Pricewise in the paper, some go shorter. When you back horses on Betdaq, there is no possibility of panic by a bookmaker, no offsetting of liabilities and market restructuring to restore a punitive take-out. That’s because you are doing a straight deal on offers by other punters; if you miss one trade, offers will be adjacent, not a dramatic reduction. At any time, you don’t have to look far for the difference in value between Betdaq and the bookies. In the very first race at Lingfield this morning, as I write, the offers on Betdaq add up to 6% against the punter, but – even selecting the best odds for each horse – it’s 21% against you with the bookmakers, and therefore worse with each individual bookie. It’s the same story, day in day out, on the day or ante-post. Use an odds-percentage table and you have three advantages: firstly, you are ahead of the other punters in your search for value; secondly, you can clearly see the better value on Betdaq, thirdly you can choose which Betdaq races give best value; you can get the best of the best, in fact. Keep a record of your bets: alongside the wins and losses on Betdaq, note the bookmaker’s equivalent odds at the time you did a trade; then see how much better off you are. Incidentally, my winners are blurbed at SP, so there is no argument about whether bigger odds, like the 20-1, were available or not; Betdaq punters comparing trades and odds will all know that I would have had those bigger ‘overs’ on the exchange before the race. In that opener at Lingfield today, the bookies were betting 10-1 and 12-1 Gerard Butler’s Sea Swell (12.00) as I write; I could get 15.5 on Betdaq about this well-bred filly, tongue tied for her first handicap. Another problem with the bookies is that most are running scared for all contests other than handicaps: I can’t, therefore, tell you what price Fortuni (12.30) with them as I take the 13.0 on Betdaq in the maiden. You can never be sure with Sir Mark Prescott whether the button will be pressed in a maiden, or whether to wait, tick off three maidens and bet first time in a handicap. But Fortuni has learned fast since he ran green on the debut, looking a tad special in homework when sprinting 10 lengths clear of recent Great Leighs runner-up Kind Heart, a 75-80 filly. Whatever happens today, I expect Fortuni to trade shorter; much shorter and you have a bet and lay. Motivated Choice (1.00), another going handicapping for the first time, is 9-2 best with the four bookies open for business on the internet as I write, 4-1 with one of the Big Three: but you could get 6.8 on Betdaq. Cumani’s game Compton Place filly should benefit from the strong gallop likely to be set by Lord Deevert and her work at home lately has been very pleasing. The 6f at a fast pace is what she needs; she’s certainly better than a 67 horse -  and still improving -  having worked nicely in front of Jennie Jerome (rated in the 80s) in recent weeks. Featherweight (2.35) eased from odds on to nearly 2-1 against in early trades in the face of sustained support for Formula, from 8.0 in to 4.8, and I take the Highclere Thoroughbreds colt to blow away the ‘Feather’ filly. That’s not just one of my awful puns: Featherweight is light weight; she  found nothing for pressure last time; her Newmarket race hasn’t worked out; and, if she was any good, she would be in a nursery after her three maidens. Lay. Quidonic (12.50) Ludlow was a dour staying type in France, so his first run in England over an inadequate two miles was most satisfactory, particularly since this hold-up horse was ridden with the pace. Today’s 21 furlongs is more like it.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 5pts win QUIDONIC (12.50 Ludlow) BET 1pt win and place SEA SWELL (12.00 Lingfield) BET 3pts win and place FORTUNI (12.30 Lingfield) BET 6pts win MOTIVATED CHOICE (1.00 Lingfield) LAY to win 10pts FEATHERWEIGHT and 5pts win FORMULA (2.35 Lingfield)
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