Tuesday 7 October
BIRTHDAY BOY! Daqman celebrates the first birthday of this column on Sunday and, in the lead-up, he will be looking back at his record, telling some stories from his racing career and checking out some of the successful ways you can bet with him on Betdaq.
Daqman needs 13 more to hit 800 winning bets for his first year, with his strike-rate running at four a day in a terrific burst through September into the early part of this month.
He divides his targets into century breaks, and his latest is on 84 wins in 24 days, giving him a week in which to smash his current record (a ‘ton up’ in 32 days).
Though he is under orders to lay only morning favourites, just under 80% of his lays are successful: he has one at Leicester today.. plus a banker at Folkestone. 
What was Steve Donoghue like as a jockey? I wouldn’t know but I did watch Sir Gordon Richards ride at Birmingham (though I couldn’t see over the running rail that day) and I was in the stands when Joe Sime won the Lincoln at Lincoln.
In all that time, as an author, a professional gambler, and a journalist in Fleet Street, I have had countless contacts and work-watchers going back to some of the great touts at Newmarket like Arthur Edwards and George Robinson. I’ve had friendships with stable lads, owners, jockeys, trainers and fellow professionals.
Never once, from any one of them, have I been told that a horse would be stopped. Only the brainless would resort to that: winning at the races takes hard work, thought, planning and understanding, whichever section of it you are in. That includes punting.
Right now, confidence in money-markets is at its lowest for 20 years. You may blame the banks for it; that’s your opinion. The difference with betting on the exchanges is that you make your own bank and you don’t have to invest until you think you have an advantage; then you only deal with others like yourself; and, finally, you won’t be penalized (on Betdaq) if you keep winning.
Racing is entirely a matter of opinion; you rely on your own judgment, reading the form-book and sifting ‘information’: if you lose, don’t blame trainer, jockey or horse. Their form and ability was right in front of you at the time. It was your decision, a decision which would have merit only if based on that hard work, thought and understanding; planning your next move.
You can’t always be right; you are going to be wrong so often that you must, must, must have value so that your winners take care of your losing bets with that bit to spare called profit.
In passing down this road, let me tell my younger reader a bit about that man, Arthur Edwards: he was the last of the great touts.
Arthur would get to know every single horse on the Heath by its markings, and had a short-hand of dots and dashes to describe what he saw: say, a dot for a white sock, a dash for a blaze. In this way, he could often tell a trainer on the gallops which of his horses was coming out of the morning mist before the trainer himself had time to recognize it.
Arthur worked with an industry and enthusiasm that never failed to his dying day, almost literally. I remember when he was ill and lying in bed, short-hand notebook at the ready, with his wife on duty at the bedroom window overlooking the gallops.
She would call the horses: “Dot-dot bay is upsides dash-dot-dot chesnut and it’s a pair of Cecil’s.” Arthur would look them up in the notebook and report the outcome of the gallop to me.
Ok, times have changed. But one thing has not: if you don’t take value, if you follow the crowd, you will lose.
If I give you an example today, it will surely confound me. But here goes: in the 4.10 at Leicester, I want to lay Torphichen.
There was a huge message for this one doing the rounds last month, saying that it was a ‘plunge horse’, streets ahead of the handicapper. It’s been 4-6 and 5-4 in its last two races. But my man in the long grass (his bedroom window is too far away) tells me Torphicen works ‘like a snail’ at home, needs 2m and is moderate.
It’s there in front of you in the form-book: the colt has won only a class-5 maiden and was beaten in a class-3 handicap by a horse, Tarkheena Prince, which in turn went down (third) by nearly 12 lengths yesterday.
Earlier, Torphicen was beaten by Porthole, who lost his next race by 22 lengths and hasn’t been in the frame in three tries since.
Let’s get this clear: I am not saying that Torphicen won’t win: I am saying that, on form, backed up by gallops reports, I think it’s hyped because it’s a Michael Jarvis. Therefore, it’s a short price for what it is. Such horses, if you lay them over a period of time will lose often enough for you to win money consistently. I’ve had 137 out of 177.
Kossack is my pick in the race: he has already run in a class-2, beaten little more than a length. He is ‘flying’ on the gallops, and he works with good horses. As a Sadlers Wells, he should appreciate soft ground. Tough-nut Kingdom Of Fife is the main danger; he’s been needing cut and a step up to today’s trip.
Piquante (2.10) might take advantage of the abence of Phillipina. As a Selkirk, she’s been looking for an easy surface and is highly regarded.
Hurricane Harriet (4.40) has done us a few favours and 5f was too sharp for her last time out. Back over a more suitable trip on ground she loves, and back under Oscar Urbina - he’s two out of two on her - ‘Harriet’ comes here in great form.
The yard is expecting her to resume winning ways after work at home that suggests she is well in hand of the handicapper.
Pivka sets a fair standard but Sirocco Breeze (5.40) looks decidedly useful on the gallops. He has impressed in his work with Filios and New Guinea who are proven 100-plus horses.
At Folkestone, Burma Rock (2.50) has been worked nicely with the useful Magaling, and also looked in top order in front of yesterday’s winner Motivated Choice. Emirates World may need the run after an absence but Saint Arch is reportedly a nice newcomer of Johnston’s. The one to take out of the race is Demand: ‘next time’ in a mile handicap.
Kinnego Bay (3.20) was just under 7-1 on Betdaq this morning, even after Manchestermaverick had come out. I think he has a solid each-way chance, returning to the scene of success on his penultimate start. |
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