DAQMAN on Saturday

Saturday 6 September Turf meetings have been swamped by the bad weather in England and Ireland today. But all is not lost, as Daqman tries to beat both the weather and the layers with value Betdaq bets at 21.0, 14.5, 13.5 and 12.5 on the Polytrack at Kempton this afternoon. He is currently nine out of 10 with his bankers and 18 out of 23 with his lays but is keeping his powder dry until the rain relents.  It’s National Hunt weather and I got caught out this morning by my West Country contact: which trainer is all set to win as many grade-ones as Aidan O’Brien? Answer: Paul Nicholls. He even told me how many – 25 – and gave me the stable horse to follow: not Denman, not Kauto Star, but Big Bucks. You read it here first. Save it for a rainy day. Kempton comes to the rescue this afternoon, but may itself need rescuing – man the pumps! – as heavy rain and SW winds (from the Ditcheat direction) are forecast. 2.20 Kempton (Sirenia Stakes): Follow the Betdaq market in two-year-old races: Crowded House steamed in and won with ease here last night. Brian Meehan, the trainer in that coup, has two in this, as does Richard Hannon, but John Best fields three. Tricky one. Winners of this are always lightly raced: three or four runs only, and that applies to the two years of Polytrack. Deposer, Flashmans Papers, Icesolator, Khor Dubai and Square Eddie have all tried Group races before, but the best they could do was a sixth place. I take out of this quintet Square Eddie (who’s 13.5 on Betdaq this morning was edible): he is stoutly bred for a sprinter – his sire was a top miler – and, after pulling too hard in the Coventry, he won comfortably, racing more professionally, last time out at Salisbury. With stamina his forte, his draw may not be such a handicap. Elnawin has to be the pick of the high draw after winning in both small and large fields. He’s done no wrong. 2.50 Kempton (September Stakes): Five runners have yet to win at 12 furlongs and four-year-olds have a grip on the race. Mourilyan was one of my horses to follow at the start of the season after a fine start at Nad Al Sheba. This is his first run below Group-1 level since early March and, at a 12.5 trade on Betdaq, I had a bit each way. He is a John Oxx cast-off, but we don’t know the circumstances, and he’s worked well at home on a surface like today’s. Galactic Star is in good form on the gallops but where he is Lion Sands should be since they were separated by only a neck at Goodwood. Lion Sands was third last year and has improved since; on the other hand, Galactic Star was set a lot to do at Goodwood and, though stall three isn’t normally ideal, three and six have won it the last two years on Polytrack. 3.25 Kempton (the London Gold Cup): Four-year-olds again, say the trends, but at 20-1 and 33-1 in the Polytrack years! Premio Loco could buck that trend: his 7lb rise is not so severe since the next four home when he won his qualifier have all scored since. Cape Hawk loves Kempton and 14.5 on Betdaq this morning was ‘wrong’. If there is a bigger turn-up, it might be Alfresco (there’s a 21.0 trade as I write): he’s joint-top rated in the Racing Post and, on a going day, is brilliant: he broke the track record over this trip at Lingfield early in the year. In the next, John Hills team rates Ashram (4.00) highly. He has been working very well at home with Layer Cake and blasted clear of his lead last weekend. The yard think he is up to Group class and he is expected to take this conditions event before being aimed at the Dewhurst. Ethaara (4.30) has been impressive in recent gallops, Stretching on under Liam Jones from useful handicappers Insaaf and Maghya, she raced as though a well handicapped filly here. She bypassed a tougher race at Salisbury on Thursday and today there is confidence that she will be a class above her rivals in this. We made the grey Armure (5.30) a strong bet before her defeat at Newmarket last time but she continues to please at home and returns to the course and distance she won over prior to the disappointing HQ bid. Each way at 6.7 this morning suited me.
TODAY'S BETS
BET 3pts win ELNAWIN; 1pt win and place SQUARE EDDIE (2.20 Kempton) BET 3pts win GALACTIC STAR; 1pt win and place MOURILYAN (2.50 Kempton) BET 5pts win PREMIO LOCO; 1pt win and place on each ALFRESCO and CAPE HAWK (3.25 Kempton) BET 6pts win ASHRAM (4.00 Kempton) BET 3pts win and place ETHAARA (4.30 Kempton)
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